Is the NFL close to starting QB saturation?

[BobDigital]

Something on "troll" and "you're right mike!" made brought this up and it is interesting to think of particularly when it comes to the up coming QB situation for the Pats.

How close is the NFL to starting QB saturation?

32 teams mean 32 starters. With a strong draft class incoming we will see few teams not have a guy they hope to start.

AFCE - 4 starting - QBs in Brady, JG, Tannehill, Taylor (Tannehill and Taylor are upgradable though but starters)
AFCN - 4 Starters - Ben, Flacco, Dalton, (Browns drafted Kizer in the 2nd) - So 2 questionable spots but you could argue 4 guys
AFCS - 4 Starters - Luck, Mariota, Bortles (Houston drafted Watson 12th) - So 2questionable spots but you could argue 4.
AFCW - 4 Starters - Carr, Rivers, Smith, (Mahomes drafted by KC 10th) - Denver is missing a guy but KC has 2 arguably

NFCE - 3-4 Starters - Prescott, Manning, Cousins, Wentz? - Wentz is arguable... Maybe not.
NFCN - 3-5 Starters- Rodgers, Stafford, Bradford, Trubisky (drafted 2nd)... Also maybe Bridgewater? I doubt it but maybe.
NFCS - 4 Starters -Ryan, Brees, Winston, Cam
NFCW - 2 Starters- Wilson, Palmer

So it seems a fair amount of guys are options.... Add in 3-5 draft picks next year who should be good and it looks like near every team has a good chance at a legit NFL starting QB.

 

[Wheelman]

No, if it were, quaterbacks like Flacco and stafford and cutler wouldn't be getting 20 million + a year

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Based on laws of production, this scenario is impossible. NFL quarterbacks compete against each other, so there will always be upgrades desired.

 

[doesntmatter1]

There is never enough good qb play and when there is maybe guys like Cutler won't last endless years.

Also, is it too soon to give up on Bortles(Mr. Pick6)?

 

[Ring 6]

Something on "troll" and "you're right mike!" made brought this up and it is interesting to think of particularly when it comes to the up coming QB situation for the Pats.

How close is the NFL to starting QB saturation?

32 teams mean 32 starters. With a strong draft class incoming we will see few teams not have a guy they hope to start.

AFCE - 4 starting - QBs in Brady, JG, Tannehill, Taylor (Tannehill and Taylor are upgradable though but starters)
AFCN - 4 Starters - Ben, Flacco, Dalton, (Browns drafted Kizer in the 2nd) - So 2 questionable spots but you could argue 4 guys
AFCS - 4 Starters - Luck, Mariota, Bortles (Houston drafted Watson 12th) - So 2questionable spots but you could argue 4.
AFCW - 4 Starters - Carr, Rivers, Smith, (Mahomes drafted by KC 10th) - Denver is missing a guy but KC has 2 arguably

NFCE - 3-4 Starters - Prescott, Manning, Cousins, Wentz? - Wentz is arguable... Maybe not.
NFCN - 3-5 Starters- Rodgers, Stafford, Bradford, Trubisky (drafted 2nd)... Also maybe Bridgewater? I doubt it but maybe.
NFCS - 4 Starters -Ryan, Brees, Winston, Cam
NFCW - 2 Starters- Wilson, Palmer

So it seems a fair amount of guys are options.... Add in 3-5 draft picks next year who should be good and it looks like near every team has a good chance at a legit NFL starting QB.

I think a better way to look at it is how many teams have"their guy" which would include very high picks that are certain to get their shot as soon as they are ready but not guys like kizer.

In other words who needs a QB now and would take one in round 1.
I'd say it's about 6 (Washington is not on the list but if cousins goes he fills one of those) or older guys who may be done soon like palmer and Brees

 

[Ivan]

Seriously?

I count about 5 I would want.

Brady

Rodgers

Brees

Ryan

And the controversial choice

Luck

Who imo is a good QB in a really sh.tty franchise.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Seriously?

I count about 5 I would want.

Brady

Rodgers

Brees

Ryan

And the controversial choice

Luck

Who imo is a good QB in a really sh.tty franchise.

I sure wouldn't mind having Wilson.

Some young QBs like Carr, Mariota, and Prescott appear to be heading towards that top echelon.

I would replace the controversial choice Luck with controversial choice Roethlisberger.

 

[varjao]

Many of these guys are starters for lack of better options.

Kizer is not a starter, nor any QB drafted this year, Bortles shouldn't be a starter, he sucks. Bradford? Trubisky? WTF

If you keep reaching like this we can conclude there are at least 32 starters or soon to be in the league. And thats far from the truth.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Many of these guys are starters for lack of better options.

Kizer is not a starter, nor any QB drafted this year, Bortles shouldn't be a starter, he sucks. Bradford? Trubisky? WTF

If you keep reaching like this we can conclude there are at least 32 starters or soon to be in the league. And thats far from the truth.

If you took away their overinflated deals and marketing involved in having a stable franchise QB, I think the following "franchise" quarterbacks are closer to replacement level than being a truly great QB :

Tyrod Taylor
Ryan Tannehill
Andy Dalton
Joe Flacco
Alex Smith
Eli Manning
Matthew Stafford (borderline - highly overrated)
Carson Palmer

These guys are paid like megastars but are so far away from really elite QBs.

 

[rochrist]

Something on "troll" and "you're right mike!" made brought this up and it is interesting to think of particularly when it comes to the up coming QB situation for the Pats.

How close is the NFL to starting QB saturation?

32 teams mean 32 starters. With a strong draft class incoming we will see few teams not have a guy they hope to start.

AFCE - 4 starting - QBs in Brady, JG, Tannehill, Taylor (Tannehill and Taylor are upgradable though but starters)
AFCN - 4 Starters - Ben, Flacco, Dalton, (Browns drafted Kizer in the 2nd) - So 2 questionable spots but you could argue 4 guys
AFCS - 4 Starters - Luck, Mariota, Bortles (Houston drafted Watson 12th) - So 2questionable spots but you could argue 4.
AFCW - 4 Starters - Carr, Rivers, Smith, (Mahomes drafted by KC 10th) - Denver is missing a guy but KC has 2 arguably

NFCE - 3-4 Starters - Prescott, Manning, Cousins, Wentz? - Wentz is arguable... Maybe not.
NFCN - 3-5 Starters- Rodgers, Stafford, Bradford, Trubisky (drafted 2nd)... Also maybe Bridgewater? I doubt it but maybe.
NFCS - 4 Starters -Ryan, Brees, Winston, Cam
NFCW - 2 Starters- Wilson, Palmer

So it seems a fair amount of guys are options.... Add in 3-5 draft picks next year who should be good and it looks like near every team has a good chance at a legit NFL starting QB.

No. There is a saturation of bad to mediocre QBs in the league.

 

[Ivan]

I sure wouldn't mind having Wilson.

Some young QBs like Carr, Mariota, and Prescott appear to be heading towards that top echelon.

I would replace the controversial choice Luck with controversial choice Roethlisberger.

I like Marriott and Carr but I think Prescott is overrated. Wilson is an enigma for me as I thought he got away with a lot of Jump ball Joe balls over his early years. But overall I think an elite QB is a rarity and the only saturation is at suck. Great QBs are hard to come by, and average is almost never good enough.

 

[DarrylS]

A starter does not mean a quality starter...

Have noticed over the years the fall off in quarterback play, think first noticed it with McNabb who as heralded as a "great" quarterback and could not manage the clock.. if you cannot manage the clock you have no business playing QB.. a guy like Carson Palmer gets a lot of hype, but is only mediocre.. Brees gets a lot of publicity, but plays for a ****ty franchise who never seem to be able to put a whole package on the field. It goes on and on, most recently the overhyped Jay Cutler who was a train wreck.. you can pick apart many of these starters and come up with the same conclusion..

The number of really great quarterbacks is no more than 5 or 7 in the league currently, the rest are average and average does not win Superbowls and consistently win games..

 

[BlacknGold77]

I say its the opposite but improving. There's is a complete lack of good starters in the NFL.

For the next few years there will be more than normal before the old guard (Brady, Manning, Brees, Rivers) retire.

There is a strong crop of young good QBs however. Wilson, Cousins, Newton being the old guys in that group. But then you have Carr, Winston, Mariota and Prescott.

This is the strongest crop of young QBs I can remember coming through in a long time.

I like Marriott and Carr but I think Prescott is overrated. Wilson is an enigma for me as I thought he got away with a lot of Jump ball Joe balls over his early years. But overall I think an elite QB is a rarity and the only saturation is at suck. Great QBs are hard to come by, and average is almost never good enough.

congrats, you properly defined the word 'elite'. As in, if everyone were elite, then no one would be as 'elite' would then be average.

in other news, the sky is blue and water is wet

 

[jah]

Why does Goff not count but the other young guys who haven't done **** do? I expect Trubisky to fare even worse. No idea about Mahomes, but it seems dubious.

 

[Bill Lee]

I think a better way to look at it is how many teams have"their guy" which would include very high picks that are certain to get their shot as soon as they are ready but not guys like kizer.

In other words who needs a QB now and would take one in round 1.
I'd say it's about 6 (Washington is not on the list but if cousins goes he fills one of those) or older guys who may be done soon like palmer and Brees

Thing is, since the QB is of such importance, I'd say at least half the teams would use a 1st on a decent QB these days, simply because (a) backup QBs are very expensive these days so rookie QBs represent great value and (b) other teams will give you significantly more than one top-half first in trade for a good QB (witness Jimmy G).

Another point: in the old pre-draft and pre-expansion days we used to see good QBs sit and wait for their chance to play. Steve Young waiting for Joe Montana to move on. Danny White waiting for Roger Staubach to move on. We don't see that these days. Instead we see teams take a hit while looking to find a good enough QB. Even the Manning -> Luck transition included a "Suck for Luck" year.

The reason is pretty obvious: the game takes a lot more football intelligence than it used to. Today we see the college game produce great athletes at QB, but they are don't have a good enough football IQ to make it at the pro level. Pro offenses and pro defenses are a lot more complicated than college ones, and the QB has to be able to be the master of both to be able to perform.

Personally, I wonder what the future holds. Will the pro game become more like the college game just because the college system is not developing pro-ready QBs? The thing is we do get a few outliers that come along, such as Brady, who do end up being able to master the pro level game, and they 'wreck the curve' for the rest. I think Luck could have been such a QB, but IND's terrible O line has resulting in him being crushed, physically and mentally.

 

[BlacknGold77]

Why does Goff not count but the other young guys who haven't done **** do? I expect Trubisky to fare even worse. No idea about Mahomes, but it seems dubious.

Let's play a round of 'one of these things is not like the other' with rookie seasons (since thats all we have on Goff). Strictly using passing numbers, even though some of these QBs run as well and have between 5-10 more TD on the ground.

Carr: 16 games, 3,270 yds, 21 td, 12 int, 76.6 rating
Prescott: 16 games, 3,667 yds, 24 td, 4 int, 104.9 rating
Wilson: 16 games, 3,118 yds, 26 td, 11 int, 100.0 rating
Winston: 16 games, 4,042 yds, 22 td, 15 int, 84.2 rating
Mariota: 12 games, 2,818 yds, 19 td, 10 int, 91.5 rating
Goff: 7 games, 1,089 yds, 5 td, 7 int, 63.6 rating

Prescott was put in the best situation of the bunch, but it still wasnt a great one. The Dallas defense is not good and he was thrown in as a rookie with a rookie RB. He did benefit from that O-line.

Wilson made the Hawks what they are. They had the pieces at D and RB, but no one to actually run the offense.

Carr, Winston and Mariota all started on awful teams in awful situations, same as Goff. Difference is they performed despite the team being bad and all 3 have their teams rising quickly.

 

[jah]

Let's play a round of 'one of these things is not like the other' with rookie seasons (since thats all we have on Goff). Strictly using passing numbers, even though some of these QBs run as well and have between 5-10 more TD on the ground.

Carr: 16 games, 3,270 yds, 21 td, 12 int, 76.6 rating
Prescott: 16 games, 3,667 yds, 24 td, 4 int, 104.9 rating
Wilson: 16 games, 3,118 yds, 26 td, 11 int, 100.0 rating
Winston: 16 games, 4,042 yds, 22 td, 15 int, 84.2 rating
Mariota: 12 games, 2,818 yds, 19 td, 10 int, 91.5 rating
Goff: 7 games, 1,089 yds, 5 td, 7 int, 63.6 rating

Prescott was put in the best situation of the bunch, but it still wasnt a great one. The Dallas defense is not good and he was thrown in as a rookie with a rookie RB. He did benefit from that O-line.

Wilson made the Hawks what they are. They had the pieces at D and RB, but no one to actually run the offense.

Carr, Winston and Mariota all started on awful teams in awful situations, same as Goff. Difference is they performed despite the team being bad and all 3 have their teams rising quickly.

What do those 3 Pro Bowl quarterbacks have to do with Mitchell Trubisky and/or Patrick Mahomes?

 

[XLIX]

Something on "troll" and "you're right mike!" made brought this up and it is interesting to think of particularly when it comes to the up coming QB situation for the Pats.

How close is the NFL to starting QB saturation?

32 teams mean 32 starters. With a strong draft class incoming we will see few teams not have a guy they hope to start.

AFCE - 4 starting - QBs in Brady, JG, Tannehill, Taylor (Tannehill and Taylor are upgradable though but starters)
AFCN - 4 Starters - Ben, Flacco, Dalton, (Browns drafted Kizer in the 2nd) - So 2 questionable spots but you could argue 4 guys
AFCS - 4 Starters - Luck, Mariota, Bortles (Houston drafted Watson 12th) - So 2questionable spots but you could argue 4.
AFCW - 4 Starters - Carr, Rivers, Smith, (Mahomes drafted by KC 10th) - Denver is missing a guy but KC has 2 arguably

NFCE - 3-4 Starters - Prescott, Manning, Cousins, Wentz? - Wentz is arguable... Maybe not.
NFCN - 3-5 Starters- Rodgers, Stafford, Bradford, Trubisky (drafted 2nd)... Also maybe Bridgewater? I doubt it but maybe.
NFCS - 4 Starters -Ryan, Brees, Winston, Cam
NFCW - 2 Starters- Wilson, Palmer

So it seems a fair amount of guys are options.... Add in 3-5 draft picks next year who should be good and it looks like near every team has a good chance at a legit NFL starting QB.

The above list gives an awful lot of rookies and 2nd year players an awful lot of benefit of the doubt. I mean, you have names in there like Prescott, Wentz, Mahomes, Kizer, Trubisky....

 

[Ring 6]

The above list gives an awful lot of rookies and 2nd year players an awful lot of benefit of the doubt. I mean, you have names in there like Prescott, Wentz, Mahomes, Kizer, Trubisky....

But other than Kizer they are definitely all now or soon to be starters.
Personally I wasn't looking it is as hoe good they will be but as how many teams have made a certain decision for the couple of seasons. There is no way that trubisky and Mahomes aren't the starter soon.

In other words teams that "think" they have a starter or have a player they are committed to giving that opportunity to.

Cleveland, the Jete, Jacksonville, SF, Denver, buffalo seem to be the teams that fit the mold right now but there are a bunch of other teams who's QBs haven't proven they are capable yet and could easily play their team into being QB needy, particularly the overdrafted youngsters.

 

[chasa]

What do those 3 Pro Bowl quarterbacks have to do with Mitchell Trubisky and/or Patrick Mahomes?

Would you rather have a bag with a piece of poop in it, or a bag with mystery contents, which are no worse then the poop in the "bag o poop"

Personally, ill take the mystery bag, because it might be good, over something i've seen be bad.