Is the NFL close to starting QB saturation?

[Nehalem]

Another point: in the old pre-draft and pre-expansion days we used to see good QBs sit and wait for their chance to play. Steve Young waiting for Joe Montana to move on. Danny White waiting for Roger Staubach to move on. We don't see that these days. Instead we see teams take a hit while looking to find a good enough QB. Even the Manning -> Luck transition included a "Suck for Luck" year.

Aaron Rodgers waiting for Brett Favre
Jimmy G waiting for Tom Brady

I think it still happens.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't think there's QB saturation. I think there's old QBs playing longer than we've seen before, and that's skewing perception. Historically speaking:

Brady - should be retired
Brees - should be retired
Palmer - should be retired
Rivers - should be on verge of retiring/losing job
E. Manning - should be on verge of retiring/losing job

Take those guys off the list, and you've got a league that's in desperate search of QBs. With them, you've got a league with high end talent, a few guys really on the come, and a bunch of guys who'll battle for the middling/mediocre slots.

 

[JetFan79]

Oh yeah. Absolutely. We're saturated with starting QBs.

 

[Ring 6]

Oh yeah. Absolutely. We're saturated with starting QBs.

Most people don't really consider the Jete a real part of the NFL. Incompetent teams that never win and have the league office in their back pocket are expected to be the exception to any rule regarding talent.

 

[jmt57]

I don't believe the OP's question is a case of 'over saturation' because you would have to reduce (or add) the number of teams in order to reduce (or add) the number of starting quarterbacks. In doing so you would also have a corresponding change in the number of coaches, defensive linemen, linebackers, corners, wide receivers, etc.

It is a simple case of a bell curve. Regardless of how many you are comparing (in this case, starting quarterbacks), you will always have about 10-15% that outperform the rest, about 10-15% that underachieve, and the rest at various spots in between.

Cut the number of teams in half and you will still have two or three quarterbacks whose performance does not compare, leaving those teams in need of an upgrade - and a "real" starting quarterback. Would that mean that this 16-team league is also 'over-saturated'?

The number of teams in the league (and number of starting quarterbacks) could be ten or it could be fifty, it doesn't matter; there will always be a small percentage at the bottom of the list that will need to be replaced with an upgrade.

 

[jah]

Would you rather have a bag with a piece of poop in it, or a bag with mystery contents, which are no worse then the poop in the "bag o poop"

Personally, ill take the mystery bag, because it might be good, over something i've seen be bad.

But the mystery bag doesn't get to be used as evidence that the league is "saturated with starting QBs".

 

[BobDigital]

As another posted pointed out. It is not a question of skill. It is a question of how many teams will have "their guy" and are looking to give him either a chance to develop (so not looking to take him out of the starting spot) 0r have someone reasonably capable and don't want to risk losing him to try to do better. I think we might have over 32 such players at the start of next year.

 

[Deus Irae]

As another posted pointed out. It is not a question of skill. It is a question of how many teams will have "their guy" and are looking to give him either a chance to develop (so not looking to take him out of the starting spot) 0r have someone reasonably capable and don't want to risk losing him to try to do better. I think we might have over 32 such players at the start of next year.

That's a misleading way to look at it, though. For many teams, "their guy" is their guy because

• They invested in him and aren't ready to flush, or
  
• They are waiting for an upgrade

Just looking at the AFC:

1. NE, Pit, SD are all in a position where they need to find (or already have) find the next "their guy"
   
2. Mia, Buf, Bal, NYJ, Cin, Cle, Hou, Jax, KC (Obviously, given their drafting), and Den would all jump at a perceived upgrade, if cap/money issues could be resolved

So, that's 13 of 16 teams who have at least a theoretically fluid situation. Only 3 AFC QBs are both in the middle (rather than towards the end) of their careers and clearly guys who you'd expect their teams to keep under pretty much any conditions:

Luck
Carr
Mariota

and even Mariota might be a question mark.

 

[JetFan79]

That's a misleading way to look at it, though. For many teams, "their guy" is their guy because

• They invested in him and aren't ready to flush, or
  
• They are waiting for an upgrade

Just looking at the AFC:

1. NE, Pit, SD are all in a position where they need to find (or already have) find the next "their guy"
   
2. Mia, Buf, Bal, NYJ, Cin, Cle, Hou, Jax, KC (Obviously, given their drafting), and Den would all jump at a perceived upgrade, if cap/money issues could be resolved

So, that's 13 of 16 teams who have at least a theoretically fluid situation. Only 3 AFC QBs are both in the middle (rather than towards the end) of their careers and clearly guys who you'd expect their teams to keep under pretty much any conditions:

Luck
Carr
Mariota

and even Mariota might be a question mark.

Great post... up until questioning Mariota. Imo, he's gonna be a good one for quite a while.

 

[patsinthesnow]

Elite QBs

Brady
Rodgers
Wilson (I'm aware I'm in minority here)
Brees

Franchise QBs

Ryan
Luck
Rivers
Roethlisberger
Manning
Carr
Newton
Stafford
Mariota
Winston
Prescott (looking good)
Dalton
Cousins

Starter Liabilities

Palmer
Bradford
Smith
Taylor
Flacco
Siemian
Tannehill
Glennon
McCown
Hoyer
Bortles
Savage

TBD, Not Looking Good

Goff
Wentz
Kessler

Potential Future Talent

Garoppolo
McCarron
Hundley
Trubisky
Mahomes
Watson
Kizer
Darnold 2018
Rosen 2018
Allen 2018



Obviously we can all disagree with lists, but it seems there's 14-18 starters that would not be liabilities on a Superbowl team (Bears Grossman, Broncos Manning).

The Future Talent pool likely yields Garoppolo, one of Hundley or McCarron, one of the 2017 QBs, and two of the 2018 QBs.

Doesn't seem saturated but the amount of QBs who completely blow is dwindling.

 

[varjao]

Great post... up until questioning Mariota. Imo, he's gonna be a good one for quite a while.

I'm still to waiting to see anything on his game that points to that direction. Jameis Winston is even worse.

 

[Deus Irae]

Great post... up until questioning Mariota. Imo, he's gonna be a good one for quite a while.

Mariota is a very promising QB. He's not David Carr level promising, yet, though imo, and he has a few lingering questions that might (emphasis on might) make him a question mark in the eyes of his team, which is why I listed him as I did.

 

[BlacknGold77]

I'm still to waiting to see anything on his game that points to that direction. Jameis Winston is even worse.

might want to try watching the games with your eyes open.

Mariota is turning the Titans around, basically on his own.

Last year, throwing to Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker and Tajae Sharp, he managed 3426 yds, 26 td, only 9 int and a 95.6 rating...at age 23

Winston is turning the Bucs around in a similar fashion, getting them to 9-7 last year with zero running game (Jacquizz Rogers was the leading rusher with 560) and even less defense and just missing the playoffs.

Last year he had 1 viable target, Mike Evans. Beyond that it was Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries. Still threw for 4,090 yds, 28 td, 18 int. He admittedly needs to cut down on the picks, but those are from having to force throws.

 

[varjao]

might want to try watching the games with your eyes open.

Mariota is turning the Titans around, basically on his own.

Last year, throwing to Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker and Tajae Sharp, he managed 3426 yds, 26 td, only 9 int and a 95.6 rating...at age 23

Yeah yeah stats, Blake Bortles has some nice stats too, I watched some Titans games and I'm not impressed with the tape, if he is the real deal how about win the division that is up for grabs and was won by a 9-7 team and a QB that their team made a NBA trade to get rid of that trash , the same team that was shut out by a 3rd string QB on week 3.

This next season, year 3, I expect a lot more given the hype this kid is getting. Right now, I think he is headed to be a Joe Flacco type of QB.

 

[sean10mm]

Yeah yeah stats, Blake Bortles has some nice stats too

Blake Bortles never sniffed stats like that, and has better receivers than Mariota.

Sometimes I think Brady has spoiled Pats fans so badly they no longer have an idea of what a "normal" good starting QB looks like. Transcendent greatness in your 2nd season isn't normal. Mariota is on a worse team than the 2001 Patriots with worse coaching, he's not gonna magically make them a Super Bowl contender that just owns their division overnight.

edit: It will be hilarious if Jimmy G is the Steve Young to Brady's Joe Montana, but that's not likely. There will be a not-Brady future at some point, and the odds that it'll be remotely as good are... not great.

 

[Triumph]

Without breaking down the NFC, the Browns, Jets, Bills, Texans, Chargers, Chiefs, Broncos and maybe Jags need a QB,

I believe that Mahomes will be a bust. Rivers is about used up. Now is the time to start shopping QBs and you could say the same for the Saints. This draft wont have enough good QBs to fill all the vacancies.

 

[Deus Irae]

Mariota is turning the Titans around, basically on his own.

That is not happening. I'm not saying that MM hasn't been developing nicely, but the Tits have built up the OL and run game to protect MM, which is a big part of the reason why MM went from 3-9 to 8-7.

 

[mgteich]

Seriously?

I count about 5 I would want.

Brady

Rodgers

Brees

Ryan

And the controversial choice

Luck

Who imo is a good QB in a really sh.tty franchise.

That's because you're a fan of one of these teams. Cleveland fans would be very happy with lots of others.

 

[Ring 6]

Blake Bortles never sniffed stats like that, and has better receivers than Mariota.

Huh?
Bottles threw fur 4428 yards and 35 TDs the year before last

 

[Bradyking12]

Huh?
Bottles threw fur 4428 yards and 35 TDs the year before last

And threw 18 int and went 5-11