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Just a thought...I've noticed (and this could definitely be due to confirmation bias) in recent years there seem to be fewer first round busts, and in general, it seems there is a near absolute consensus about the draft's top 20 players or so. I don't really have time to go through a huge math proof, but I take a look at some of the first rounds going back, and it appears like there's a higher correlation than before of higher picks getting better players. The correlation has obviously always been there, but there seems to be a higher success rate.
It's no secret that in recent years many teams have subscribed to many of the same analytical services when it comes to player and draft pick evaluations. Virtually every team now realizes the critical importance of scouting in the salary cap era, and owners are putting a lot more money into it than they used to.
Could this be a reason (not necessarily the only reason) why the Patriots seem to be getting scraps in the draft, since they're picking later? Or do you think it has to do with bad injury luck, picking injury prone players, sub-par scouting, straight up statistical variance on a small sample size, etc. To say that they are not getting the same draft results because of draft position alone ignores the fact they were still very successful doing this for about 15 years.
It's no secret that in recent years many teams have subscribed to many of the same analytical services when it comes to player and draft pick evaluations. Virtually every team now realizes the critical importance of scouting in the salary cap era, and owners are putting a lot more money into it than they used to.
Could this be a reason (not necessarily the only reason) why the Patriots seem to be getting scraps in the draft, since they're picking later? Or do you think it has to do with bad injury luck, picking injury prone players, sub-par scouting, straight up statistical variance on a small sample size, etc. To say that they are not getting the same draft results because of draft position alone ignores the fact they were still very successful doing this for about 15 years.