Is the league getting better at drafting, and is that hurting the Patriots?

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Just a thought...I've noticed (and this could definitely be due to confirmation bias) in recent years there seem to be fewer first round busts, and in general, it seems there is a near absolute consensus about the draft's top 20 players or so. I don't really have time to go through a huge math proof, but I take a look at some of the first rounds going back, and it appears like there's a higher correlation than before of higher picks getting better players. The correlation has obviously always been there, but there seems to be a higher success rate.

It's no secret that in recent years many teams have subscribed to many of the same analytical services when it comes to player and draft pick evaluations. Virtually every team now realizes the critical importance of scouting in the salary cap era, and owners are putting a lot more money into it than they used to.

Could this be a reason (not necessarily the only reason) why the Patriots seem to be getting scraps in the draft, since they're picking later? Or do you think it has to do with bad injury luck, picking injury prone players, sub-par scouting, straight up statistical variance on a small sample size, etc. To say that they are not getting the same draft results because of draft position alone ignores the fact they were still very successful doing this for about 15 years.

 

[Kontradiction]

No.

 

[JayNM]

Why do you think they are better players? What timespan are you refering to exactly? Didn't much of our players come with injury risk? What about later rounds? Are they producing lesser players because the good players come first?

Sorry Ice, this one i can't see being true. If you feel like deep diving into it, feed me some info and i can do some regressions for ya

 

[tasmlab]

These teams that draft better, those are the ones that usually watch the super bowl from a couch whilst eating wings and drinking beer, yes?

 

[luuked]

Who is getting better at drafting?

 

[Sicilian]

I'm going to try this at my next annual review: "Boss, I'm NOT slacking off all the time... everyone else in the company is just working SUPER hard all of the sudden!"

 

[Bruins29]

How do you even come up with a way to figure out who is better at drafting? I assume you would have to look at the production of each teams pick but scale it because of where they picked it?

Then you would have to just assume that player A who out performed player B would have just automatically performed as well on a different team with a different system/coaching etc.

 

[chris_in_sunnyvale]

In a copycat league, teams will close gaps on the leader unless one stays ahead with the next innovation or exploits an unrealized inefficiency. This can range from player attributes, roster makeup, game strategy, drafting strategy and cap management just to name a few.

I do believe teams have closed the gap with NE in several of these areas. BB has had one huge advantage that has given him breathing room, though: Tom Brady and his cap-friendly contracts. Teams to date have struggled to combat that. It remains to be seen if that changes.

Regards,
Chris

 

[The Brandon Five]

The Pats have either not done well or had bad injury luck with recent drafts. I'd say that is more the problem. Last year they used most of their draft capital to make trades. This year, six of their nine picks wound up on IR.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

It certainly hasn't been happening for the Dolphins, Bills or Jetes....

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Why do you think they are better players? What timespan are you refering to exactly? Didn't much of our players come with injury risk? What about later rounds? Are they producing lesser players because the good players come first?

Sorry Ice, this one i can't see being true. If you feel like deep diving into it, feed me some info and i can do some regressions for ya

NFL.com Draft 2018 - NFL Draft History: Full Draft Year

Do your thing!

 

[Patstopia]

There has been an increase it teams using former Pats FO people that may be more in tune with the type of players the Pats usually draft. I think a few players the Pats were targeting were snaked by Houston and Tennessee.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

No.

Well played.

Counterpoint: maybe?

 

[Jangles]

Who is getting better at drafting?

Not the Patriots

 

[TheRainMaker]

Their last two drafts have been pathetic.

On the flip side, I feel sorry for Green Bay fans as their drafts have been worse than every team for years. Ted Thompson was beyond overrated and good for them for finally cutting the cord.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

In 2014 we had a pretty young team minus a couple of vets and then got to 3 Super Bowls over the next four years.

Chasing sb number 6 last year caused Bb to sacrifice some future wins by hanging onto vets too long.

Now we pay the price, but he has already accumulated some serious draft capital, so we should be good, young and hungry again in two years.

 

[captain stone]

The league may or may not be getting better at drafting, but the Emperor Without Clothes & his D-III sychophants are absolutely getting worse...and that's saying something.

 

[luuked]

I don't get how anyone even tries to judge the 2018 draft. The team might come out of it with 3 4-5 year starters with Wynn, Michel and Bentley. We don't know yet anything about Dawson. He could be a starter in the slot if he can confirm what he has shown in camp at times or be a bust.

Point being judging this years draft after 3 weeks is ******ed.

 

[XLIX]

Just a thought...I've noticed (and this could definitely be due to confirmation bias) in recent years there seem to be fewer first round busts, and in general, it seems there is a near absolute consensus about the draft's top 20 players or so. I don't really have time to go through a huge math proof, but I take a look at some of the first rounds going back, and it appears like there's a higher correlation than before of higher picks getting better players. The correlation has obviously always been there, but there seems to be a higher success rate.

I am not sure I see any evidence of fewer first round busts in recent years. I know first rounders are making a lot less money than they used to, so perhaps those that are busts don't break the bank (and get as much attention) as maybe they used to...

 

[Soliel]

Don’t have to be good at drafting if your the jete