h0c2000
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Jul 12, 2006
- Messages
- 1,360
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or am I the fool for continuing to read his drivel?
From
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...-meetings-peter-king-fmia/#rare-raider-praise
FMIA: Reality Not So Nice For Patriots As Rob Gronkowski, Best Tight End of His Era, Walks Away From Football
From
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.c...-meetings-peter-king-fmia/#rare-raider-praise
FMIA: Reality Not So Nice For Patriots As Rob Gronkowski, Best Tight End of His Era, Walks Away From Football
So I’m like most people who watch or work around football: When I heard that the Raiders won the award at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference for “Best Transaction of 2018” for the trade of Khalil Mack to Chicago, I thought it was a story in The Onion.
In fact, it was the strong belief of Richard Thaler, winner of the 2017 Nobel Prize for Economics. Thaler is also a football fan. He co-wrote a widely read paper in 2005 on the value of NFL draft choices (“We find that top draft picks are overvalued in a matter that is inconsistent with rational expectations”), laying out a treatise that the best draft choices actually are those low in the first round and through the second round. He has consulted with an NFL team about the value of draft choices and how to build a team. Thaler, 73, is a professor at the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago.
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Not to argue with a Nobel Prize winner, but …
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The best team of this era, the Patriots, has mostly acted like Thaler suggests, jettisoning players on the verge of making free-agent riches or negotiating big contracts (Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins, Trey Flowers, Malcolm Butler, Trent Brown, Nate Solder) in favor of draft choices mostly.
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It’s always good to expose yourself to new ideas. I don’t buy everything Thaler is selling, but if Oakland drafts well in the next two years, he and the MIT Sloan program will look pretty smart.