INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Third Down Totals Plummeted For Brady After Achilles Injury

[PatsFans.com Article]

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Third Down Totals Plummeted For Brady After Achilles Injury

Ian Logue

Some started predicting Brady's demise as Brady's totals dropped, but instead, the numbers essentially show that Brady simply wasn't himself while dealing with the injury.

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[luuked]

That is the kind of baiting headline I didn't expect from @Ian but one of the clowns from the PatsFans podcast.

Even the text inside is acknowledging that there were a ****ton of injuries during the same period of time. But for some reason people want to reduce it down to an injury that made Brady not even miss more than 3-4 practices..

 

[farn]

Beyond the injuries, it isn’t uncommon for stats to become « less impressive » as winter approaches.

I remember that in 2007, games in SEPT-OCT were out of this world. Towards the end, even as the winning continued, the same dominance wasn’t there. The Ravens, the NYG... those were far from blow outs.

The injury is probably impacting stats (as are his team’s injuries), but it is normal that as temperature drop, so do passing stats.

 

[NYPatsFan]

I don't doubt that injuries affected his performance. Hogan being also hurt made it a lot more difficult for Brady because he's able to run slants and crossing routes so effectively.

 

[Ring 6]

Wow Ian you are banging the drum hard on this one.
If you remove the Miami game what does that do to the numbers? Does it make it look like it’s mostly due to 1 bad game? Is the rest explained away by December weather vs October weather?

Interestingly if we look at all the other passes except 3rd down (3rd down is just under 1/4 of his throws) we get


First 10
199/285. 69.8% 2371 8.32 ypa 15/2 5.3/0.7%


Last 6
105/157 66.9% 1189. 7.57 ypa 8/0 5.1/0.0%


Those numbers seem very close and certainly would be explained away by one bad game (where Gronk was out and hogan played but wasn’t ready) and/or passing stats decreasing in cold weather.

These numbers would indicate he was only injured on 3rd down if we assume it’s because of injury.

 

[Deus Irae]

Greg Bedard
Troy Brown


Two guys who were downgrading Brady earlier, but have changed the focus of their issues to others now that they've watched the tape.

 

[Angelpats]

We only lost three games this year and yes Brady had some off games but is still an mvp candidate, led the league in yardage and top 5 in almost every category. I don’t know any other player in history that gets spit on so much.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Beyond the injuries, it isn’t uncommon for stats to become « less impressive » as winter approaches.

I remember that in 2007, games in SEPT-OCT were out of this world. Towards the end, even as the winning continued, the same dominance wasn’t there. The Ravens, the NYG... those were far from blow outs.

The injury is probably impacting stats (as are his team’s injuries), but it is normal that as temperature drop, so do passing stats.

The before/after Thanksgiving is pretty remarkable.

Before T-Day: 41ppg
After T-Day: 27ppg

TB12 Before T-Day: 10 games 74% comp, 3059 yards 38/4 TD/INT 134.0 rtng
TB12 After T-Day: 9 games 65% comp 2484 yards 18/7 TD/INT 94.3 rtng

Rushing before T-Day: 132ypg
Rushing after T-Day: 111ypg

 

[Ian]

Wow Ian you are banging the drum hard on this one.
If you remove the Miami game what does that do to the numbers? Does it make it look like it’s mostly due to 1 bad game? Is the rest explained away by December weather vs October weather?

Interestingly if we look at all the other passes except 3rd down (3rd down is just under 1/4 of his throws) we get


First 10
199/285. 69.8% 2371 8.32 ypa 15/2 5.3/0.7%


Last 6
105/157 66.9% 1189. 7.57 ypa 8/0 5.1/0.0%


Those numbers seem very close and certainly would be explained away by one bad game (where Gronk was out and hogan played but wasn’t ready) and/or passing stats decreasing in cold weather.

These numbers would indicate he was only injured on 3rd down if we assume it’s because of injury.

Just got home from work. Here's a full week-by-week breakdown of his third down passing totals:

 

[Ian]

That is the kind of baiting headline I didn't expect from @Ian but one of the clowns from the PatsFans podcast...

Sometimes we don't get it right in terms of the headline and I/we generally avoid any click-bating type entries. So that obviously wasn't the intent. I will say calling Derek, Steve or Russ "clowns" is a little harsh. They do a decent job for a few guys who hop on each week and talk a little football. If I was on it - you'd probably be a little more accurate

 

[sarge]

I actually thought Brady looked a little like he was throwing off his back foot more when the news about the achilles came out.

 

[Ian]

I actually thought Brady looked a little like he was throwing off his back foot more when the news about the achilles came out.

I thought he looked better the last two weeks in terms of his mobility and the fact he appeared more like he was fully stepping into his throws (not that I'm an expert - it's just an opinion), with the Buffalo game probably the best he had looked since the injury was first reported. I didn't see anything unusual about him physically Sunday , so I would say he looks like he's pretty healthy heading into the postseason.

But I would say it's just odd that a few people here don't feel like he looked hampered at all and that he instead just played poorly. I'd agree if it wasn't for some of the throws that sailed or how off he was on several plays where he had guys open and threw short. I agree not having Hogan (and Gronk vs Miami, and White) hurt them, but I disagree that the Achilles injury didn't also factor into how erratic he looked throwing the football during that span. It's one thing if he's making good throws but guys just weren't open. There were a lot of un-Brady-like plays over that earlier stretch, and I'd like to think there was more to it than just an off-game to attribute to him playing like that.

 

[Joker]

He injured his achilles 6 games ago or so...if he didn't come back from it, everybody'd be gnashing their teeth, wailing and running for their fallout bunkers. He played through an injury that screws up a QB's mechanics bigtime, so what does everyone do? "BRADY LOSING IT!!!!!!!!". Even this damnable twerp Kellerman blabbed like a castrated duck today that"SEE!!! He's just ordinary now!! SEE????? THIS is the cliff!!! I was right all along GAA GAA GOONY GAA!!!!!!!"
OK, who the hell would YOU have playing QB instead of Brady...Rodgers? jeezus krist he can't play through a pulled vaginal muscle. I KNOW what the ultimate end game is here..."We should have kept Jimmy G....waaaaah waaahy waaah".

Look, are you a fan of the Patriots? Yes ? Then be HAPPY you have a Tom Brady at 75% or whatever number you have to put on it because the alternatives offer a level of fan idiocy that cannot be explained.

 

[Ian]

He played through an injury that screws up a QB's mechanics bigtime

I echo that sentiment and don't think it was just a natural bad few games caused only because of the absence of Hogan, etc. That didn't help, but I think the injury affected him more than some seem to think. As @AndyJohnson mentioned, despite that, his overall totals were still among the best in the league. The scary thing is, even if they manage to win it all this year, with Edelman hopefully back in 2018, Cooks will be even more dangerous, they'll have Mitchell and Amendola along with Gronk, and this offense will be even more productive.

 

[sarge]

But I would say it's just odd that a few people here don't feel like he looked hampered at all and that he instead just played poorly. I'd agree if it wasn't for some of the throws that sailed or how off he was on several plays where he had guys open and threw short. I agree not having Hogan (and Gronk vs Miami, and White) hurt them, but I disagree that the Achilles injury didn't also factor into how erratic he looked throwing the football during that span. It's one thing if he's making good throws but guys just weren't open. There were a lot of un-Brady-like plays over that earlier stretch, and I'd like to think there was more to it than just an off-game to attribute to him playing like that.

Yup. One of Brady's best qualities the majority of his career has been his consistent mechanics, and from the time the injury was initially reported, his mechanics looked off, especially regarding his footwork (I am no expert either, but it didn't look the same). He did look considerably better this past weekend. A lot of the throws that were "off" were the fact the receivers were covered and he had to put it in places only his guys could get to it (as was correctly pointed out by Romo).

Anyway, hoping he is fine the remainder of the post season.

 

[Ivan]

I thought he looked better the last two weeks in terms of his mobility and the fact he appeared more like he was fully stepping into his throws (not that I'm an expert - it's just an opinion), with the Buffalo game probably the best he had looked since the injury was first reported. I didn't see anything unusual about him physically Sunday , so I would say he looks like he's pretty healthy heading into the postseason.

But I would say it's just odd that a few people here don't feel like he looked hampered at all and that he instead just played poorly. I'd agree if it wasn't for some of the throws that sailed or how off he was on several plays where he had guys open and threw short. I agree not having Hogan (and Gronk vs Miami, and White) hurt them, but I disagree that the Achilles injury didn't also factor into how erratic he looked throwing the football during that span. It's one thing if he's making good throws but guys just weren't open. There were a lot of un-Brady-like plays over that earlier stretch, and I'd like to think there was more to it than just an off-game to attribute to him playing like that.

I think the Achilles, the hand injury, and a boatload of injuries hampered Brady’s play, but none are permanent factors and Brady will be much closer to the best player in football than he was his December play when the playoffs start.

That said they still put up 30 a game, and they went 11-1 after the 2-2 start. Hardly a failure.

 

[Uptown]

Yeah, it’s definitely safe to say that it was a mixture of both the Achilles injury affecting Brady to some capacity, and missing key players. All signs/ common sense points to that.

 

[fourhour]

I must've skipped two games after T-Day!