I'll admit i was wrong - Amendola didn't work

[Brady6]

You and I clearly watched different games. The game I watched saw a New England offense that looked pathetic until the 4th Quarter. 3-and-out on the first two possessions, including a 3rd-and-3 hail Mary to Slater when underneath receivers were open for the first down.

The game I watched, Brady didn't have enough time to go through his progressions, which is why he kept throwing to Edelman, who was his 1st option on many plays. The game I watched, running backs couldn't get to the line of scrimmage unimpeded.

The game I watched (look it up) Denver had 21 FIRST DOWNS at the same point where New England had run 24 PLAYS...in the Denver air.

The Patriots were dominated - and couldn't get a call on top of it. The Hooman call, the Welker non-call, and the ridiculous Ryan holding call were critical in allowing Denver to get up two scores on a team that was clearly flat, and clearly couldn't adjust their offensive game plan against the aggressive Denver D. They were out-coached, out-muscled, out-talented, and out-performed.

They came up flat. It happens. I'm sick of it happening in the big games.

I won't get into the whole Welker/Amendola thing, other than to say that part of the reason so many receivers don't seem to work out in New England falls on Brady's shoulders. His considerable strengths at QB do not include lifting up his receivers. In Brady's defense, since 2007, he always seems to be under more pressure, particularly in these big games, than the guy on the other side of the ball: Giants/Jets/Ravens/Giants/Ravens/Broncos...

Welker was a fool to walk was much as the Pats were foolish to let him walk - which tells me that Welker didn't want to be here any more than BB wanted him here (which makes this constant back-and-forth silly). The business deal got personal and that's never a good thing, and in the end, Kraft was right: the deal the Pats offered him was BETTER than the one he took in Denver. He's 8 million against their cap next year, and only 2 million in dead money if cut (and they've got some big free agents).

I watched a lot of the Denver games this year and Welker was good but nothing spectacular. He wasn't being doubled at all, and was rarely bracketed, and got a ton of easy catches on the famed Denver rub crossing pattern. Still a very good player, but if I'm playing Denver, he's the 4th receiver I worry about.

He's also not a long-term answer for anybody. If he retires after the SB, I won't be surprised. He's playing on borrowed time, like a lot of other undersized slot receivers who stalk the sidelines saying, "I'm Batman."

We must have been watching different games, then. You are giving the defense too much credit. Julius Thomas dropped a TD pass. The Broncos ended the game in the Patriots red zone and chose to kneel down.

I by no means was implying that the Patriots played well and I honestly may have exaggerated the success of players to make my point which was to say other players were able to have some success in the game whether it was in the first 3 quarters or garbage time so to suggest Amendola was like the rest of the guys is not completely true.

 

[50-yard-line]

I by no means was implying that the Patriots played well and I honestly may have exaggerated the success of players to make my point which was to say other players were able to have some success in the game whether it was in the first 3 quarters or garbage time so to suggest Amendola was like the rest of the guys is not completely true.

To which I would counter that if a guy's not targeted, he can't catch the ball. Unless you're looking at Coach's tape, you don't know whether Amendola was open or not, and unless you know the plays called, you can't know whether he was open where he was supposed to be open or not.

I went to the Giants' game at the Razor a couple of years ago and was sitting way up in the nosebleed section. I didn't have my glasses and couldn't even see the ball in the twilight. So when the Pats had it, I focused on the receivers. My friend told me to watch Chad Johnson, claiming I'd be surprised.

I was. He was open on almost every play, getting great separation. I can only assume he wasn't where he was supposed to be, however, given the reports and the fact that Brady hardly ever even glanced his way.

Amendola played 41 snaps against Denver (the pats ONLY had 59, which again shows how miserable they were), and was targeted once. I don't know how many of those snaps were passing plays, how many were runs - likely between 25-30 were pass plays. Was it Amendola not getting open or Brady not looking his way, or plays otherwise designed (like the first read to Vereen coming out of the backfield).

If it's the former, we better hope the groin tear had a lot to do with it and Amendola can get better, because he will be here next year, and I'd say there's a 50% chance he's the slot guy. If it's the second option, Brady had better widen his scope. If it's the third...well, the game was a mess...

 

[Brady6]

To which I would counter that if a guy's not targeted, he can't catch the ball. Unless you're looking at Coach's tape, you don't know whether Amendola was open or not, and unless you know the plays called, you can't know whether he was open where he was supposed to be open or not.

I went to the Giants' game at the Razor a couple of years ago and was sitting way up in the nosebleed section. I didn't have my glasses and couldn't even see the ball in the twilight. So when the Pats had it, I focused on the receivers. My friend told me to watch Chad Johnson, claiming I'd be surprised.

I was. He was open on almost every play, getting great separation. I can only assume he wasn't where he was supposed to be, however, given the reports and the fact that Brady hardly ever even glanced his way.

Amendola played 41 snaps against Denver (the pats ONLY had 59, which again shows how miserable they were), and was targeted once. I don't know how many of those snaps were passing plays, how many were runs - likely between 25-30 were pass plays. Was it Amendola not getting open or Brady not looking his way, or plays otherwise designed (like the first read to Vereen coming out of the backfield).

If it's the former, we better hope the groin tear had a lot to do with it and Amendola can get better, because he will be here next year, and I'd say there's a 50% chance he's the slot guy. If it's the second option, Brady had better widen his scope. If it's the third...well, the game was a mess...

Well based on the information Miguel pointed out which I am waiting on clarification on he may not be here next year. If the Patriots choose to commit to Edelman as the long term slot receiver it makes no sense to retain Amendola, I had thought he would be here to because of how his cap # was structured but if I am reading Miguel's post accurately than we do have a way out this year and if so I would expect us to take it, resign Edelman and then invest in an outside receiver or 2nd tight end that is not redundant to Edelman which Amendola absolutely is.

 

[Deus Irae]

There, fixed it for you. And no, that doesn't look like a Superbowl team to me - at all. You can't point to the team at the start of the season and say they'd be in the Super Bowl, when many of the reasons they might be are sitting at home or in the locker room watching the game on TV.

I'm not sure what you think you fixed, but it certainly wasn't my post.

 

[50-yard-line]

I'm not sure what you think you fixed, but it certainly wasn't my post.

You listed their roster with your slight changes and said, "That team would be in the Super Bowl. It would also be pretty damned loaded headed into the offseason."

Note the ?'s, indicating the players who would not have played in the AFCCG, let alone the Superbowl, so how does your dream roster put us in the Superbowl?

 

[50-yard-line]

Well based on the information Miguel pointed out which I am waiting on clarification on he may not be here next year. If the Patriots choose to commit to Edelman as the long term slot receiver it makes no sense to retain Amendola, I had thought he would be here to because of how his cap # was structured but if I am reading Miguel's post accurately than we do have a way out this year and if so I would expect us to take it, resign Edelman and then invest in an outside receiver or 2nd tight end that is not redundant to Edelman which Amendola absolutely is.

So you would take 3.2 million in dead money in 2014 and 3.6 million in dead money in 2015 to cut a guy who played through an injury (which will be healed before next season) for the entire season, caught 54 passes through 12 games, averaging 11.7 YPC and 52.8 YPG (633 total) in his first year in the system at age 27?

How does that make any sense whatsoever? Especially since he can be cut with minimal dead money if he doesn't perform better next year.

 

[Deus Irae]

You listed their roster with your slight changes and said, "That team would be in the Super Bowl. It would also be pretty damned loaded headed into the offseason."

Yes

Note the ?'s, indicating the players who would not have played in the AFCCG, let alone the Superbowl, so how does your dream roster put us in the Superbowl?

With Welker, the team doesn't lose both the games against New York and Carolina. That puts them in the #1 seed. They play at home, against a Denver team that doesn't have Welker, instead of in Denver against a team with Welker. Welker doesn't injure Talib on a pick play. The Patriots win that game in the cold and wind, instead of losing in perfect conditions. They're practicing for the SB.

 

[Archeryaddict12]

Yes







With Welker, the team doesn't lose both the games against New York and Carolina. That puts them in the #1 seed. They play at home, against a Denver team that doesn't have Welker, instead of in Denver against a team with Welker. Welker doesn't injure Talib on a pick play. The Patriots win that game in the cold and wind, instead of losing in perfect conditions. They're practicing for the SB.

How can you say we win in NY and CAR with welker??? That is pure speculation and 100% opinion.

 

[Patsrock]

Yes



With Welker, the team doesn't lose both the games against New York and Carolina. That puts them in the #1 seed. They play at home, against a Denver team that doesn't have Welker, instead of in Denver against a team with Welker. Welker doesn't injure Talib on a pick play. The Patriots win that game in the cold and wind, instead of losing in perfect conditions. They're practicing for the SB.

Of course you are saying every other result stays the same? Welker is not in Denver to botch the PR and give Pats win vs Denver.

How does Welker not going to Denver change the AFC West? Does KC win both games and win west finishing 13-3?

Does Edleman get a contract from NE?



Do Pats win game against NO without Collie and Thompkins?

 

[Brady6]

So you would take 3.2 million in dead money in 2014 and 3.6 million in dead money in 2015 to cut a guy who played through an injury (which will be healed before next season) for the entire season, caught 54 passes through 12 games, averaging 11.7 YPC and 52.8 YPG (633 total) in his first year in the system at age 27?



How does that make any sense whatsoever? Especially since he can be cut with minimal dead money if he doesn't perform better next year.

Honestly I'm not a cap expert but we took a $3.5 million hit for Lloyd this year and he was far more productive than Amendola.

Ultimately I do not expect us to cut Amendola nor do I really know that I want us to, I do however expect that we will leverage the ability to cut him in asking him to restructure as we did with Lloyd and if he refuses to restructure I could envision the same outcome for him that Lloyd had.

 

[AzorianPats]

How can you say we win in NY and CAR with welker??? That is pure speculation and 100% opinion.

He's a fortune teller that's why....

 

[Deus Irae]

How can you say we win in NY and CAR with welker??? That is pure speculation and 100% opinion.

Actually, I was saying that they'd win at least one of them. Since the problems in those games were clearly receiver issues, it's a safe bet. And, again, the Patriots having Welker means Denver doesn't have Welker. Kansas City would have loved that in their first game against the Broncos.

And every sort of "but...." is a speculation. People pointing to the Buffalo game as evidence of what Amendola would have done is speculation, too.


Did you know that, with all the hoopla over Edelman's year, according to NFL.com, 49 of Welker's 73 catches (67%) went for first downs, while only 54 of 105 of Edelman's catches (51%) went for first downs? That's no fluke, either. Here are the percentages of catches for first down in Welker's last 5 seasons:


67%
61%
63%
55% (post-ACL)
58%

People who say that having Welker wouldn't have mattered are out of their minds.

 

[Patsrock]

So you would take 3.2 million in dead money in 2014 and 3.6 million in dead money in 2015 to cut a guy who played through an injury (which will be healed before next season) for the entire season, caught 54 passes through 12 games, averaging 11.7 YPC and 52.8 YPG (633 total) in his first year in the system at age 27?

How does that make any sense whatsoever? Especially since he can be cut with minimal dead money if he doesn't perform better next year.

On Lloyd they get a 1.5m credit this 2014 season.

 

[Deus Irae]

He's a fortune teller that's why....

Any body that thinks Welker could have done a better job then Edelman this year is clearly on drugs....

You must have been sitting across from me in fortune telling school, then... :ranger:

 

[50-yard-line]

Yes



With Welker, the team doesn't lose both the games against New York and Carolina. That puts them in the #1 seed. They play at home, against a Denver team that doesn't have Welker, instead of in Denver against a team with Welker. Welker doesn't injure Talib on a pick play. The Patriots win that game in the cold and wind, instead of losing in perfect conditions. They're practicing for the SB.

Okay, got ya now, and I can actually accept the reasoning, even though I disagree. With Welker, Edelman is nowhere near as productive, so it's logical to cut out a significant part of his production.

Also, does Welker win the Buffalo game for us the way Amendola did? Not so sure about that.

And I doubt that we'd be in the Superbowl even if we played at home, Denver played a great game.

 

[50-yard-line]

Honestly I'm not a cap expert but we took a $3.5 million hit for Lloyd this year and he was far more productive than Amendola.

Ultimately I do not expect us to cut Amendola nor do I really know that I want us to, I do however expect that we will leverage the ability to cut him in asking him to restructure as we did with Lloyd and if he refuses to restructure I could envision the same outcome for him that Lloyd had.

Lloyd was older, was trouble in the locker room, and didn't want to play. And the Patriots reportedly reached out to him after Week 1 and he was uninterested.

Amendola, by all accounts, works his ass off and is a good teammate. Haven't heard a negative thing about him, attitude-wise. There's NO WAY they cut him. I doubt he'll restructure, either.

 

[Brady6]

Lloyd was older, was trouble in the locker room, and didn't want to play. And the Patriots reportedly reached out to him after Week 1 and he was uninterested.



Amendola, by all accounts, works his ass off and is a good teammate. Haven't heard a negative thing about him, attitude-wise. There's NO WAY they cut him. I doubt he'll restructure, either.

Well let me ask you do you think they will ask him to restructure?

 

[Miguel]

Correcting a prior post

Here's how to get rid of Amendola -
In February/March make him a June 2 designation.
That means the Pats would carry his $3 million salary and his $375,000 roster bonus on their books until June 2nd. On June 2nd he would be released. His 2014 cap number would then drop from $4.575m to $3.2million ($1.2 million signing bonus proration plus $2 million fully guaranteed salary - net cap savings in 2014 of around $800K.

His 2015 cap number would go from $5,575,000 to $3,600,000.

Correcting this numbers after reading Ben Volin's column in the Globe today in which he reported that Amendola's 2 million guarantee kicks in if he is on the roster at 4PM March 11.

In February/March make him a June 2 designation.
That means the Pats would carry his $3 million salary and his $375,000 roster bonus on their books until June 2nd. On June 2nd he would be released. His 2014 cap number would then drop from $4.575m to $1.2million (signing bonus proration - net cap savings in 2014 of around $2.88 million.

His 2015 cap number would go from $5.575 million to $3.6 million.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Re: Correcting a prior post

Uh, oh. With these new, different #s prepare for incoming!

 

[chasa]

Wow Amendola turns out to be cuttable?

thats pretty crazy.