Content Post Idle thoughts - the WTF edition

[mosslost]

WTF is right

 

[Biffins]

We forget that when Vegas makes the Pats 13 point favorites, it doesn't mean they think the Pats are 2 TD better than the Texans, but rather it means it they have to make the spread that big inorder to entice enough money on the Texans to even the pool. Vegas is dealing in the bettor's PERCEPTION, while Bellichick is dealing with the reality of the actual game on the field.

And yet the Pats covered the line more than any other team last year................... so atleast last year perception UNDERESTIMATED Pats reality. It doesn't necessarily always overestimate as you imply.

 

[SlowGettingUp]

BTW, here is a claim by Aaron Schatz that Solder dealing with a hamstring issue:

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Audibles at the Line: Week 3

Solder also apparently mentioned some personal issue to explain why he was late to the game.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Only team that scares me really is KC..Pitt no..Denver no...

 

[supafly]

Was last year's defense really one of three worst in the league at this point last year?

After 3 games, they were giving up 15 ppg, averaging 275 yards through the air, and 88 on the ground.

They were coming off of a week 3 shutout, and had already produced 7 turnovers.

 

[supafly]

Only team that scares me really is KC..Pitt no..Denver no...

Maybe, but we're basing this on 3 weeks of a 16+ game season. I think it's way too early to know too much about anyone's team, including our own, aside from the fact that our offense currently looks awesome when healthy.

Pittsburgh is now 5-13 in their last 18 when playing on the road against sub .500 teams. What they did yesterday is nothing new, and yet they've remained fairly competitive. It seems as though they play up/down to their competition too often.

Denver is never anything terribly special, but they play very good defense and always seem to be tough at home. I do think their QB looks more comfortable this year, and they seem to have a fairly balanced offense.

KC was the #2 seed last year, so it baffled me why no one seemed to take them seriously all summer long.

I think OAK is the worst of the bunch, but they still have some good skill position players and some playmakers on defense. They have the potential to be a pain in the butt as a WC team.

 

[meatface]

I was really happy with what I saw from DA, it was very nice to see him step up and I hope he can stay healthy. I would really like to see Dwayne Allen become a bigger part of the game but it seems like thats going to have to be work on his end to get into Tom Bradys good graces.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Maybe, but we're basing this on 3 weeks of a 16+ game season. I think it's way too early to know too much about anyone's team, including our own, aside from the fact that our offense currently looks awesome when healthy.

Pittsburgh is now 5-13 in their last 18 when playing on the road against sub .500 teams. What they did yesterday is nothing new, and yet they've remained fairly competitive. It seems as though they play up/down to their competition too often.

Denver is never anything terribly special, but they play very good defense and always seem to be tough at home. I do think their QB looks more comfortable this year, and they seem to have a fairly balanced offense.

KC was the #2 seed last year, so it baffled me why no one seemed to take them seriously all summer long.

I think OAK is the worst of the bunch, but they still have some good skill position players and some playmakers on defense. They have the potential to be a pain in the butt as a WC team.

I think no one took them seriously because:

Alex Smith is a game manager but looks different this year
RB position (Hunt may be a stud however..but can he keep it up all year?)
Andy Reid's clock management

His clock management will end their playoff run or Alex smith will. Not sure which one and losing Berry hurts a lot

Oak I agree is worst of the bunch. Overhyped IMO
Denver's QB play will be up and down all year it looks
Ben looked bad vs the Bears and always seems to get hurt...let's see if he can play all 16

Either way I think 12-4 gets #1 seed..but if it's us and KC...

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Alex Smith is a game manager but looks different this year

Contract year

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Contract year

But why after what 13 years it all of a sudden changes...he's been in other contract years and I don't remember this from him...He was always the guy on 3rd and 6..to throw a 4 yard pass with a defender on the WR.

Did their OC change? Because their O seems a lot more open. He does have one of if not the fastest guys in the NFL so that helps

Sunday was a Smith game...155 yards and 2 TDs. Vs us however is was a career day.

Only had 20 and 23 TDs twice in those years

 

[supafly]

But why after what 13 years it all of a sudden changes...he's been in other contract years and I don't remember this from him...He was always the guy on 3rd and 6..to throw a 4 yard pass with a defender on the WR.

Did their OC change? Because their O seems a lot more open. He does have one of if not the fastest guys in the NFL so that helps

Sunday was a Smith game...155 yards and 2 TDs. Vs us however is was a career day

He's had 4 of the past 6 years where he won 11+ games. I don't think he came out of nowhere as much as you seem to.

He's definitely making good decisions, lately, though.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

He's had 4 of the past 6 years where he won 11+ games. I don't think he came out of nowhere as much as you seem to.

He's definitely making good decisions, lately, though.

Well he's always made good decisions for the most part. Always low INTs.. But how many of those Ws were because of the D...their D always seems to be top 10 every year at least in my eyes.

If you had to rank him...where would be be on your list...top 10..15?

 

[supafly]

If you had to rank him...where would be be on your list...top 10..15?

Yeah, he's benefiting greatly from good defensive play, but I also think that he's a decent choice for that kind of west coast offense.

You're right, though. I probably wouldn't even have him in the top 12-15 for current QBs.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Yeah, he's benefiting greatly from good defensive play, but I also think that he's a decent choice for that kind of west coast offense.

You're right, though. I probably wouldn't even have him in the top 12-15 for current QBs.

If I had to build a team right now..I can think of 15 guys I would take over him. That's why him having 7TDs right now is just strange

 

[BradyFTW!]

Diidn't we feel pretty much the same way about the defense, this time last season??? The more I think about it, one of the great simple truths that BB has come to realize is that every team is different. Usually at least 25% of the team is different. The chemistry is different. The skill sets are different, etc.

If you want to write the book about how BB keeps on being better than his opponents, this has to be right near the top. He has accepted that there is very little carry over from one year to the next. Every team is unique and it takes time for it to find it's identity and develop the mental toughness to win consistently in the NFL. He expects that will be the case and doesn't get hung up when things don't go in the PERCEIVED progression that most of us think is supposed to happen.

This "acceptance" of the uniqueness of every year, allows Bill to absorb the losses of players during the year, and the ups and downs week to week. Teams that have rigidly ascribed to certain "systems" and expectations don't fare as well when sh!t happens. This dynamic flows down from the top and gives the players the confidence to know that they WILL be well prepared and ulitmately success lies with them and how they perform. Over and over they have seen concrete evidence that by following the game plan week to week is the key to success. When they don't execute it can cause defeat.

So while BB has often said, "Players win game, coaches lose them". The continuity and credibility that he has built over the last 18 years allows him the flexibility to create these unique week to week game plans and have a team that in most years, will give their all to carry out those plans.

It's just that we should know (getting back to the orignial point ); it often takes time to find out who THIS particular team is, and what they have to do to win games.

One thing that put my mind at ease was Mike Lombardi on Bill Simmons' podcast last week. He said that a few years ago Belichick started referring to the first month of the season as the September Preseason. Too many moving parts, too little time to practice and prepare in the offseason. Belichick understands that his team is nowhere near fully formed right now, and that's fine. September is now the time that you spend getting the team ready for the stretch run in December and January.

Lombardi also pointed out that some coaches do a lot better than others with this, and that Belichick is probably the best. As opposed to Sean Payton, who's done a terrible job of adapting to this new reality and that's why the Saints have won two September games in the last four years and are basically out of the division hunt by week 5 every year.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

They are averaging giving up 32 points a game, that is historically bad!

Without Tom Brady this team is 0-3, with all three losses by blowouts. Only Brady greatness has prevented this.

Newton is hurt and without Greg Olsen (and maybe Kelvin Benjamin), so they should blow Carolina out! If Carolina gets more than 10 points, the defense should be sacked!

Brady to Cooks is everything, I thought it would be, I can only hope it gets better from here.

Gronkowski is an absolute game changer, nobody can cover him (without holding). Plus he is a great blocker.

Both Gillmore and Butler have been bad. I have no idea why both of these press corners are playing zone. McCourty is just plain awful, maybe he should retire and be a SJW full time, and save the Pats his 11 million dollars in cap space.

Wise and Flowers have been playing well, I have a bad feeling that BB is going to keep Hightower out again this Sunday and then maybe bring him back for the Thursday's game. I don't highly that Hightower plays Sunday and Thursday, that knee just seems to problematic for that to happen.

The defense needs a wake up call, and the infusion of some more talent.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

But why after what 13 years it all of a sudden changes...he's been in other contract years and I don't remember this from him...He was always the guy on 3rd and 6..to throw a 4 yard pass with a defender on the WR.

Did their OC change? Because their O seems a lot more open. He does have one of if not the fastest guys in the NFL so that helps

Sunday was a Smith game...155 yards and 2 TDs. Vs us however is was a career day.

Only had 20 and 23 TDs twice in those years

Smith probably realizes that it’s his last major contract and wants to cash in. Not only that his window for winning a super bowl is closing.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I have a bad feeling that BB is going to keep Hightower out again this Sunday and then maybe bring him back for the Thursday's game. I don't highly that Hightower plays Sunday and Thursday, that knee just seems to problematic for that to happen.

The defense needs a wake up call, and the infusion of some more talent.

I don’t think NE needs hightower against carolina and TB. In reality the next string of games should not be too bad - Carolina, TB, and the Jets. After that it’s a rematch with Atlanta and then Denver looming on the horizon. This is where Hightower is needed the most.

As far as the defense is concerned, I think it’s probably more scheme than anything at this point. I mean the loss of Sheard, Long and Ryan shouldn’t mean they go from 1st in the league in points allowed to last. There has to be something else to it.

 

[patfanken]

After 3 games, they were giving up 15 ppg, averaging 275 yards through the air, and 88 on the ground.

They were coming off of a week 3 shutout, and had already produced 7 turnovers.

I think the key differnce here are the TO's, sup. That's 5 TO difference. Sprinkle 5 addtional TO's over 3 games and that eliminates a lot of yards and points allowed.

BTW- just a reminder. The 2011 was HISTORICALLY bad, and was the 32nd ranked defense right up until the 17th week when the the Saints D grabbed the 32nd position by under 10 yds IIRC. We all know that team went to the superbowl and performed very well in that playoff run (IIRC they had the 3rd best D in the playoffs) 2 additional thoughts on that defense. They WERE very good at turning the ball over and relatively good at keeping points off the board (17th in points allowed)

If it is more of the same this time next month, THEN I'll start to be worried.....but even then......

 

[Uptown]