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idle thoughts - The Ugly edition.

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maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
I'm not too worried about the Packers. The Bills were playing in their Super Bowl. There's no hot rivalry with the Packers so I expect the Pats to do better.

The Bills defense just held the Pats to 25 points. The Packers defense just held the Rams to 29 points. And, the Packers actually have an offense.

The Packers game doesn't feel like any easy out to me.
 

mosi

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
The Packers do not have, in any way shape or form, a statistically better offense than the Pats

The Packs' offense is averaging 412 yards per game (5th). The Pats are averaging 381 (11th). Can't look at total yards as the Pack have played once less game. If you add in their average yards per game, they would be ahead of the Pats.

The Pack has more passing yards than the Pats, even while playing one less game.

So yes, you can make the argument that statistically, the Pack have a better offense than the Pats. Not saying they do or not, just saying you could make the argument.
 

Pat the Pats Fan

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Was it just me or did Brady’s throwing motion seem very off for most of the game? I was wondering aloud if he might be hurt or just feeling some pain. I know he was under pressure a fair amount but he was making those throwing motions even without pressure. It just seemed odd to me.
Brady was thinking 1000 yards rushing....he’s all about his stats:rolleyes:
 

tasmlab

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The sports media have been dogging Buffalo as being terrible since the pre-season, but they may only be like three guys away from being an OK team. Give them a QB, two good receivers, and maybe OL help and they might be middle of the pack decent or better.
 

Hyped

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Comments:

- It was a division road game....those are always ugly.

- For the last 2 weeks (@CHI and @BUF), I have felt that the Patriots were in complete control of games from start to end. For instance, last night we were not able to punch it in the EZ...so we settled for figgies..but at the same time we did not turn over the ball...and let our defense do the work. Complementary football, yo!

- Our defense was +1 last night...giving up 6 and scoring 7. Yes, it was Anderson and the weapon-less Bills...but it was still a NFL offense. Any time our D plays like this.....we have a chance in every game.

- For those talking about McCourty losing speed....after his pick six ESPN put up a "NextGen" stat graphic showing that he ran 22.05 MPH on that pick six which was "fastest any ball carrier ran this season".

- For all the Gronk-Is-Slow comments...remember last year Gronk took his frustration out on Tr'e White the Bills CB? I was seeing a lot of the same last night...defensive players are being ALLOWED to hang onto Gronk...grab him...etc...constantly. I think things will open up more once Brady starts lighting up Hogan (PFK was correct, I also saw Hogan open on multiple occasions), IMO. Also, I think it is time to try throwing the ball a bit to Dwayne Allen....I mean if we are throwing it to Develin...why not Allen up the seam a bit now and then? In addition, when is Jacob Hollister coming back? He is like a poor man's Hogan, IMO....he can help us.

- Patterson at RB...I loved it. Yeah, he runs too high and shouldn't be running between the tackles...but the dude is an absolute beast in open space...we need to keep trying to get him in open spaces where he's a big play waiting to happen.

- The Bills opened with some Wildcat...which made me wonder if Daboll remembered the Saparano Dolphins cramming it down our throats and tried to use it for that reason.

- Brady actually was off on some throws last night...the big one to Gordon early...he actually underthrew Gordon as JG needed to turn back to catch the ball. Also, early on he over threw Gronk along the sideline. Then later on 3rd down he missed Edelman by 4-5 feet over the middle. And of course the ground ball to James White at the goal line.

- I am worried about the amount of hits Brady is taking...it is too much, IMO. Was happy he took an intentional grounding call before a Figgie yesterday at least....and on another throw threw the ball at the feet of an OL-man, but was out of the pocket anyway.

- Hope Mason is OK and that we get Cannon/Hightower back on Sunday. Despite Cannon being out...I am liking the reps we are giving Waddle. We might have to lean on him in Dec/Jan given how unreliable Cannon has become.

- The Packers game might be a BIG one, but ultimately it isn't important standings-wise as this is a NFC match up. More importantly, we need to beat Tennessee in Nashville before the BYE. I would be happy with 7-3 before the BYE with a final 6 of: MIN, NYJ, @NYJ, @Mia, BUF, and @PIT. That looks like a 4-2 finish for us at worst for a 11-5 record. A 11-5 record might be enough for us to take the 2nd BYE given that we have already beaten the Texans...and (if we beat the Titans) gone 3-1 vs. the AFC south that will beat itself up more...and likely not have a team better than 11-5. Then for the ACF North...there's only Cincinnati and Pittsburgh with a shot at being 11-5 or better...but both teams would need to go 6-2 and 7-2 respectively. I think the play-off field will likely look like this: 1.) K.C. vs. BYE, 2.) NE vs. BYE, 3.) Steelers vs. 6.) Bengals, 4.) Texans vs. Chargers. Round 2: Steelers @ Patriots and Chargers/Texans @ Chiefs......I like the Chargers/Texans getting first crack at K.C. in K.C. though....
 

glm

In the Starting Line-Up
The Packs' offense is averaging 412 yards per game (5th). The Pats are averaging 381 (11th). Can't look at total yards as the Pack have played once less game. If you add in their average yards per game, they would be ahead of the Pats.

The Pack has more passing yards than the Pats, even while playing one less game.

So yes, you can make the argument that statistically, the Pack have a better offense than the Pats. Not saying they do or not, just saying you could make the argument.
Yards are entirely useless. A better basic stat to look at is points.

Patriots have 239 points which is 29.9 PPG, they’re ranked 4th in league. They’re also on pace for 478 points this season.

The Packers have 175 points which is 25.0 PPG, they’re ranked 13th in league. They’re on pace for 400 points this season.

If you want to look at yards than look at their Scoreability. Scoreability is Yards/Points and measures how efficiently teams score.

The Patriot’s Scoreability is at 12.78 which is one of the best in the league. In other words it takes the Patriots 12.78 yards to score a single point. To score the equivalent of 7 points they have to travel 89.46 yards.

The Packers on the other hand are at 16.49 which is not good. It takes them 115.43 yards to score the equivalent of 7 points.

So the fact that the Packers have more yards is really a bad thing.
 

Hyped

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He sure did, against Miami. And he did a great shuffle into the end zone.

And I remember another one in 2002...it was a deflected pass off a Raider player's foot...and Bruschi took it to the house, IIRC...we lost, but....
 

1960Pats

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The Packs' offense is averaging 412 yards per game (5th). The Pats are averaging 381 (11th). Can't look at total yards as the Pack have played once less game. If you add in their average yards per game, they would be ahead of the Pats.

The Pack has more passing yards than the Pats, even while playing one less game.

So yes, you can make the argument that statistically, the Pack have a better offense than the Pats. Not saying they do or not, just saying you could make the argument.

I've been to a couple of NYFL stadiums, including Gillette many times, and I keep looking for yards on the scoreboard and they're never there.
 

mosi

Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
The Packers do not have, in any way shape or form, a statistically better offense than the Pats

Again, my only point was that your line is not true. The Packer do in several ways, shapes and forms, have a statistically better offense than the Pats. The points in your argument are not germane.
 

glm

In the Starting Line-Up
Again, my only point was that your line is not true. The Packer do in several ways, shapes and forms, have a statistically better offense than the Pats. The points in your argument are not germane.
A team having more yards doesn’t equate to a better offense at all though.

In fact it’s bad that they gain more yards.

What statistics point to actually being a better offense?
 

maineman209

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Again, my only point was that your line is not true. The Packer do in several ways, shapes and forms, have a statistically better offense than the Pats. The points in your argument are not germane.

According to the FO DVOA metric, the GBY and NE offenses are basically tied for 6th/7th best.
 

Actual Pats Fan

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
I posted this in another thread but the bills D is a really good. The played a very similar game against the Packers IN Green Bay. Yes, they lost 22-0 but the Bills D played well. Rodgers was only 22-40 for 298 yards with a TD and an INT.

The reason the Bill sucked so bad in that game was the QB, Allen was absolutely terrible.

In the Bills 6 first half drives, 4 were a 3 and out and 1 was an interception. Their second half was no better. Anderson is a major improvement over Allen.
I do not give a crap about the networks and their ratings and profits...

I think it was a totally good thing for the Bills to be on MNF. They have an established, original AFL team and a good, enthusiastic fan base. How many games did I watch as a kid, involving teams with losing records (often being the Pats) because I love football.

I simply disagree with people complaining that national games have to involve only the best teams.
 

primetime

Pro Bowl Player
Yards are entirely useless. A better basic stat to look at is points.

Patriots have 239 points which is 29.9 PPG, they’re ranked 4th in league. They’re also on pace for 478 points this season.

The Packers have 175 points which is 25.0 PPG, they’re ranked 13th in league. They’re on pace for 400 points this season.

If you want to look at yards than look at their Scoreability. Scoreability is Yards/Points and measures how efficiently teams score.

The Patriot’s Scoreability is at 12.78 which is one of the best in the league. In other words it takes the Patriots 12.78 yards to score a single point. To score the equivalent of 7 points they have to travel 89.46 yards.

The Packers on the other hand are at 16.49 which is not good. It takes them 115.43 yards to score the equivalent of 7 points.

So the fact that the Packers have more yards is really a bad thing.

Packers have been behind more often this season.
 
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