Idle Thoughts – a reflective edition

[AzPatsFan]

If Amendola is cut after the season the total hit against our cap for his 2 seasons here will be around $11.7M. They can technically spread those hits over 3 league years but it's still $11.7M in total cap hits for 2 seasons of work, so it actually $5.85M per season.

I do not want to dig into Amendola though. I'm just pointing out that we are not exactly reinvesting this cap space properly in many cases, so I'm not going to ride on the Belichick has a plan and this Mankins trade will end up being brilliant parade.

The proof of the pudding is:
1 Superbowl and 4 AFCCG appearances in the past four years. However he is "reinvesting his CAP" in... DO It Again !!!

No matter how hard you and the coterie of envious Belichick haters, and junior, basement want-a-be, GMs, try to do, the facts just make your attempts look humorous and embarassing.

 

[AzPatsFan]

He could have got out in front of it and not had to make an either or decision, you act as if Belichick had just 2 options, he did not. Last season I bet you were suggesting Brady’s pains with the WRs were short term like a surgery as well, to this day, the problems still exist with the WRs, so guess he is on the long-term recovery program for that surgery, huh. We nickel and dime players like Mankins so we can blow money on players like Amendola, Arrington, and Wilson, etc.

As it stands now, Belichick has replaced 51 of 53 players in his [ non re-building] effort in the 4 going on 5 years since the original Superbowl players got old, were traded, or retired. BB literally has reconstructed the team, as if it were an expansion Team, and he has never produced less than a double digit winning season and Playoff appearance.

The Offensive line was the first squad partially rebuilt 4-5 years ago. He invested marginally in it drafting a LT/RT candidate in the Second round that all the Junior GM Draftniks here questioned. But he and Dante were correct. Vollmer was a bullseye that has played well in spots as a LT; and has gone to the Probowl as a RT. If Matt Light had left earlier, SeaBass would have started at LOT, and done well. BB also jiggled with some marginal UDFAs on the interior.

BB then spent his resources rebuilding elsewhere. The TE, RB, DL, LB, CB and WR positions were addressed, and BB invested a high First for Light's replacement.

Last year, the O-line gave up an enormous, and wholly unacceptable 40 sacks. No one of the Mediots, nor most fans were looking, mesmerized by the supposed rookie WR issue. But BB saw, and decided drastic surgery was needed, in the off season and in 2014.

I suspect but can't prove, that BB planned and expected to replace only Wendell at C, and Connolly at RG, and get some more depth, probably from Dante's pet projects; and defer doing anything about Mankins until 2015 or 2016. His draft actions for Stark, C, and Flemming T/G, seem to point in that direction.

I suspect but can't prove that the Bucs Trade Offer was unexpected and unplanned. But BB took it, fully knowing that all the planning was thrown in a ****ed hat and that the rebuilding would prove tough(er).

Overall BB has to be a masterful Coach; and juggler, par excellance. Not even Paul Brown, his hero, could create an instant winner the first year with his expansion Bengals, like he did with his namesake Browns when the AAFC was formed.

 

[Brady6]

The proof of the pudding is:
1 Superbowl and 4 AFCCG appearances in the past four years. However he is "reinvesting his CAP" in... DO It Again !!!

No matter how hard you and the coterie of envious Belichick haters, and junior, basement want-a-be, GMs, try to do, the facts just make your attempts look humorous and embarassing.

First I'm not a Belichick hater at all, I'm a huge Belichick fan in fact, I'm just not a delusional homer who thinks he walks on water. When you have Tom Brady at QB making it to the AFCCG does not mean much. The NFL is a QB league and the best ones generally play deep into the playoffs.

You may think you are a superior fan because you never speak about negatives and attempt to defend everything but the truth is you sound extremely one sided. That lack of ability to think for yourself and constant hooking of your wagon to Belichick star is far more embarrassing than someone discussing a negative outcome.

 

[Brady6]

This is an arbitrary list of 34 of the 64 Gs starting in the NFL. I assume the other thirty didn't qualify as high picks. Of them (12 of this 34, 35% of sample), are 3rd round or later draft picks
What are you trying to prove if 42 of 64 don't meet your criterion?

BTW, the Patriots invested a First for Solder, and a Second for Vollmer, in the past few years. This is consistent with Belichick's often stated dictum: "You draft Left Tackles, and move them... if they fail". Spending two high picks for 2 the most important of the 5 positions, is hardly ignoring the line for half a decade.

They drafted Vollmer 6 drafts ago - that isn't a "few" years.

In the past 5 drafts 1 pick in the first 3 rounds was spent on the OL and that was Solder. We've spent 2 draft picks in first 3 rounds during the same period on QBs. I'm glad we have such a focus on the backup QB when we cannot protect are HOF QB. You can attempt to justify Belichick management of the OL personnel but the bottom line is we have one of the worst OL in the league right now for a reason and it is not because Belichick did a great job.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I don't care if they put walk ons at RB/WR out there on O as long as the impact players on D (including Revis are extended) and the Patriots continue to improve both the OL & DL.

Ausbacker,

You have just described BB's modus operandi to a T, as I see it. Many here can't understand that philosophy of ignoring aquiring superstars at those "Skill" positions and merely settling for good or even acceptable players there.

But Belichick the economist, knows the CAP won't stretch to pay for superstars everywhere. Many a stupid coach, and long losing organization constantly re-prove that. BB would rather spend his resources on more "important positions", that he believes are in approximate order QB, LOT, DE, DT, CB, TE and LB. and he does so with few exceptions.

 

[Brady6]

Ausbacker,

You have just described BB's modus operandi to a T, as I see it. Many here can't understand that philosophy of ignoring aquiring superstars at those "Skill" positions and merely settling for good or even acceptable players there.

But Belichick the economist, knows the CAP won't stretch to pay for superstars everywhere. Many a stupid coach, and long losing organization constantly re-prove that. BB would rather spend his resources on more "important positions", that he believes are in approximate order QB, LOT, DE, DT, CB, TE and LB. and he does so with few exceptions.

Do you honestly believe that if not for having the GOAT QB the teams Belichick has built in recent years would have had a winning record?

 

[AzPatsFan]

First I'm not a Belichick hater at all, I'm a huge Belichick fan in fact, I'm just not a delusional homer who thinks he walks on water. When you have Tom Brady at QB making it to the AFCCG does not mean much. The NFL is a QB league and the best ones generally play deep into the playoffs.

You may think you are a superior fan because you never speak about negatives and attempt to defend everything but the truth is you sound extremely one sided. That lack of ability to think for yourself and constant hooking of your wagon to Belichick star is far more embarrassing than someone discussing a negative outcome.

All I can do is judge on what I see, Someone once said "If it quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, swims like a duck..."

 

[AzPatsFan]

Do you honestly believe that if not for having the GOAT QB the teams Belichick has built in recent years would have had a winning record?

Yes. You seem to set Brady apart. You forget that Belichick drafted Brady too.

 

[Brady6]

All I can do is judge on what I see, Someone once said "If it quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, swims like a duck..."

I have a real hard time finding anything you say creditable because it does not matter what it is you defend it. When Hernandez was arrested for murder you probably praised Belichick for drafting someone with such great aim. I am objective I see the good the bad and the OL is bad and that is because Belichick did not do a good job building it and made an impulsive trade of its top player that this team was not prepared to overcome.

 

[Brady6]

Yes. You seem to set Brady apart. You forget that Belichick drafted Brady too.

I didn't forget and that still doesn't answer my question.

 

[supafly]

If Amendola is cut after the season the total hit against our cap for his 2 seasons here will be around $11.7M. They can technically spread those hits over 3 league years but it's still $11.7M in total cap hits for 2 seasons of work, so it actually $5.85M per season.

I do not want to dig into Amendola though. I'm just pointing out that we are not exactly reinvesting this cap space properly in many cases, so I'm not going to ride on the Belichick has a plan and this Mankins trade will end up being brilliant parade.

I absolutely despise the timing of getting rid of Mankins. I don't believe that it could've come at a worse time. I would not have made it this year, and likely would've waited until the next.

That said, I still believe that Belichick may have taken the cap savings into account, along with the important free agents that are due in March.

By the way, how exactly are you coming up with "11.7" in cap hits for 2013 and 2014?

 

[Brady6]

I absolutely despise the timing of getting rid of Mankins. I don't believe that it could've come at a worse time. I would not have made it this year, and likely would've waited until the next.

That said, I still believe that Belichick may have taken the cap savings into account, along with the important free agents that are due in March.

By the way, how exactly are you coming up with "11.7" in cap hits for 2013 and 2014?

His signing bonus and his salary for 2013 and 2014 equal around $11.7M. If he cut we take the $3.6M on the cap in 2015 for the remainder of his $6M signing bonus.

 

[supafly]

You looked at Miguel's numbers and concluded that we were very tight to the cap.

I'm not as sure as you that I exactly concluded that specific thought, but I did mention that the current 7m dollars (along with the expected increase) won't go quite as far as some believe.

The cap that Miguel has for Revis is $25M, including $5M dead money from this year. If Revis signs a new contract had a first year cap of $8M as you suggest, that would result in a $12M REDUCTION in our cap responsibility. In other words, signing Revis is NOT a cap cost. The reality is that McCourty and Revis and Gostkowski will likely have a TOTAL cap hit less than Miguel currently has for Revis alone.

If you wish to consider Revis as a new contract to sign, then you should decrease the 2015 cap expenditures by the fake $20 salary for Revis for 2015. The additional $20M plus the Mankins money from this year and next provide considerable cap money.

I fully understand what you're saying about Revis, but when you consider the fact that both he and McCourty will be demanding some new long-term pacts, the future must certainly be taken into account; not just specifically 2015.

 

[supafly]

His signing bonus and his salary for 2013 and 2014 equal around $11.7M. If he cut we take the $3.6M on the cap in 2015 for the remainder of his $6M signing bonus.

And how much would we save by cutting him though? Are you taking that into account?

 

[Brady6]

And how much would we save by cutting him though? Are you taking that into account?

We do not save anything we paid for his first 2 years salary and his signing bonus, we are not getting any money back, the cap savings are just the portion we would not be paying for his 2015 salary.

The saving are compared to the cost of him being on the team, they are not actual savings.

 

[supafly]

We do not save anything we paid for his first 2 years salary and his signing bonus, we are not getting any money back, the cap savings are just the portion we would not be paying for his 2015 salary.

Obviously, next year is the first year where we wouldn't have a dead cap hit that offset any gain. Therefore, it only seems reasonable that they would've waited for the first two years to pass before making any determination.

What that has to do with the Logan Mankins situation, I'm still not sure? They weren't going to cut Amendola this year.

 

[supafly]

We do not save anything we paid for his first 2 years salary and his signing bonus, we are not getting any money back, the cap savings are just the portion we would not be paying for his 2015 salary.

The saving are compared to the cost of him being on the team, they are not actual savings.

I understand the sunk cost aspect of the signing bonus, but I disagree that we wouldn't have an extra 2.1 million dollars added on to the salary cap for the 2015 season. Due to how I'm perceiving things, I consider that a "savings," since it would add money to the salary cap.

http://overthecap.com/salary-cap/new-england-patriots

 

[mgteich]

I'm not as sure as you that I exactly concluded that specific thought, but I did mention that the current 7m dollars (along with the expected increase) won't go quite as far as some believe.

I fully understand what you're saying about Revis, but when you consider the fact that both he and McCourty will be demanding some new long-term pacts, the future must certainly be taken into account; not just specifically 2015.

I agree that Belichick always looks at more than this year and next year. He is a master at cap planning. I agree that $7M isn't a lot. But I don't think that the situation is anyway dire.

My point was to be clear that if we currently have $7M of cap room, the signing of Revis to a new contract would then leave us with an additional $12M of cap room. Even after re-signing Revis, McCourty and Gostkowski, we still would have about the same $7M that is there now. The NET of re-signing all three of our key free agents would be a cap effect of about zero.

2015 cap NOW - $25M
---------------
Revis $25M
McCourty $0M
Gostkowski $0M

estimated 2105 cap after re-signings -$25M
------------------------------------------
Revis remaining bonus $5M
Revis new contract $8M first year cap
McCourty contract $8M first year cap
Gostkowski contract $4M first year cap

Since McCourty and Gostkowski would replace 2 players on the roster, there would be a net gain of almost $1M.

 

[AzPatsFan]

They drafted Vollmer 6 drafts ago - that isn't a "few" years.

In the past 5 drafts 1 pick in the first 3 rounds was spent on the OL and that was Solder. We've spent 2 draft picks in first 3 rounds during the same period on QBs. I'm glad we have such a focus on the backup QB when we cannot protect are HOF QB. You can attempt to justify Belichick management of the OL personnel but the bottom line is we have one of the worst OL in the league right now for a reason and it is not because Belichick did a great job.

Exageration once again. Belichick planned and prepared for the changes with the Draft. Did you expect him to spend three draft picks for linemen?

How can it be the worst, when it enabled 4 consecutive AFCCG and a Super Bowl appearances. Despite the pain and blood of the present surgery, the Team is 2-1, tied for the AFCE lead.

Despite the justifiable concern, the new Offensive line is actually doing marginally better than last year in pass blocking. Still unsatisfactory to be sure, but in number of hits14 vs 15, and time Brady is using to pass, 2,65 vs 2,57 seconds, and time before being sacked, and equal in sacks 7 when compared against the first 3 games of 2013, according to PFF.

Actually I thought it would be much worse, only to get better post surgery, but even now its better.

That bad 2013 line produced the Third rated Offense in the League last season.

 

[Fencer]

I didn't forget and that still doesn't answer my question.

They went 11-5 with Matt Cassell the season after two straight disappointing drafts.