Idle Thoughts – a reflective edition

[ausbacker]

Ausbacker,

You have just described BB's modus operandi to a T, as I see it. Many here can't understand that philosophy of ignoring aquiring superstars at those "Skill" positions and merely settling for good or even acceptable players there.

But Belichick the economist, knows the CAP won't stretch to pay for superstars everywhere. Many a stupid coach, and long losing organization constantly re-prove that. BB would rather spend his resources on more "important positions", that he believes are in approximate order QB, LOT, DE, DT, CB, TE and LB. and he does so with few exceptions.

The Patriots already have a superstar at Tight End. What the Patriots need is for him to improve as the season progresses much like every other player.

Once Gronk is back to 80% of himself, provided the OL improves, the Patriots O will improve tremendously (assuming McDaniels wakes up and starts calling decent games).

 

[supafly]

I agree that Belichick always looks at more than this year and next year. He is a master at cap planning. I agree that $7M isn't a lot. But I don't think that the situation is anyway dire.

My point was to be clear that if we currently have $7M of cap room, the signing of Revis to a new contract would then leave us with an additional $12M of cap room. Even after re-signing Revis, McCourty and Gostkowski, we still would have about the same $7M that is there now. The NET of re-signing all three of our key free agents would be a cap effect of about zero.

2015 cap NOW - $25M
---------------
Revis $25M
McCourty $0M
Gostkowski $0M

estimated 2105 cap after re-signings -$25M
------------------------------------------
Revis remaining bonus $5M
Revis new contract $8M first year cap
McCourty contract $8M first year cap
Gostkowski contract $4M first year cap

Since McCourty and Gostkowski would replace 2 players on the roster, there would be a net gain of almost $1M.

I don't really consider it "dire," I'm just stating that Belichick may have taken the future cap savings into account, as he almost always does.

Even with the signings of McCourty, Revis, and Gostkowski, we still have other players such as Ridley/Vereen, and would expect to at least be minor to moderate players in the free agency game.

Of course, as we both pointed out, the future years are just as important too.

 

[mgteich]

We do seem to forget that 2013 offense was the #3 offense in the NFL

Is the 2014 OL really that much worse than the 2013 OL? Will it be that much worse by mid-season?

Six weeks ago, this team was being discussed HERE on this board as having the 2nd best team since winning the last SB, and potentially the 2nd best offense ever.

We lost Mankins. Stork has been injured through much of the off-season. Wendell was injured for part of a game. The team wilted in the 2nd half in the 90 degree temperature of Miami (where we do NOT have a great record). And we are 2-1.

And what is the conclusion of so many on this board: that we have the worst OL in the league, a terrible offense and we obviously should panic.

We may win or lose on Monday. We may or may not have a winning record at the bye week. HOWEVER, this team is a playoff team. How well they are prepared for the playoffs will depend on health. The talent is sufficient. The requirement of so many that we have top draft choices, and future pro bowlers at every position is simply nonsense.

BOTTOM LINE
The offensive line is a period of transition and will be for 2014 and 2015. The OL is our weakest unit. IMHO, if we start Wendell and Connolly, we will have a line almost as good as last year (consider the weeks when Solder was out). Obviously, we want Stork to be ready. When he is, I think that the OL will be at least as good as 2013 when we had a top 3 offense. And I haven't a clue why Kline isn't starting.

 

[Miguel]

The hypothesis that the Mankins release was done to free up cap space in order to extend Revis only holds true if the Revis extension is done this year. Any Revis extension done next year will lower Revis' cap number from $25 million. By asking Mankins to accept a pay cut in February 2014, it seems that the Patriots were already planning to not have his 2016 cap number on the books.

 

[AzPatsFan]

I absolutely despise the timing of getting rid of Mankins. I don't believe that it could've come at a worse time. I would not have made it this year, and likely would've waited until the next.

That said, I still believe that Belichick may have taken the cap savings into account, along with the important free agents that are due in March.

By the way, how exactly are you coming up with "11.7" in cap hits for 2013 and 2014?

So do I despise the timing. I suspect it was an unplanned event.

But I still respect Belichick's willingness to take advantage of the opportunity, despite the hurt. He chose to secure a Hernandez-type replacement, a mid-high draft pick, some Cap relief, and another mid-high draft pick freed from drafting a Hernandez type TE. Aquiring Tim Wright completes the reconstruction of the TE & receiving positions.

I believe he fully expected the problems and still did it. BB is mostly right, but he is wrong some times too. That is what he gets paid to do.

 

[AzPatsFan]

We do seem to forget that 2013 offense was the #3 offense in the NFL

Is the 2014 OL really that much worse than the 2013 OL? Will it be that much worse by mid-season?

Six weeks ago, this team was being discussed HERE on this board as having the 2nd best team since winning the last SB, and potentially the 2nd best offense ever.

We lost Mankins. Stork has been injured through much of the off-season. Wendell was injured for part of a game. The team wilted in the 2nd half in the 90 degree temperature of Miami (where we do NOT have a great record). And we are 2-1.

And what is the conclusion of so many on this board: that we have the worst OL in the league, a terrible offense and we obviously should panic.

We may win or lose on Monday. We may or may not have a winning record at the bye week. HOWEVER, this team is a playoff team. How well they are prepared for the playoffs will depend on health. The talent is sufficient. The requirement of so many that we have top draft choices, and future pro bowlers at every position is simply nonsense.

BOTTOM LINE
The offensive line is a period of transition and will be for 2014 and 2015. The OL is our weakest unit. IMHO, if we start Wendell and Connolly, we will have a line almost as good as last year (consider the weeks when Solder was out). Obviously, we want Stork to be ready. When he is, I think that the OL will be at least as good as 2013 when we had a top 3 offense. And I haven't a clue why Kline isn't starting.

Great post.

 

[AzPatsFan]

The Patriots already have a superstar at Tight End. What the Patriots need is for him to improve as the season progresses much like every other player.

Once Gronk is back to 80% of himself, provided the OL improves, the Patriots O will improve tremendously (assuming McDaniels wakes up and starts calling decent games).

Lets go through the roster at BB's "Important Positions"

QB Brady Superstar & GOAT
LOT Solder drafted 1st Round pick, Star (hopefully developing)
DE Jones Superstar (developing)
DT Wilfork Superstar (aging)
CB Revis Superstar (possible GOAT?)
CB Browner Star
LB Mayo Superstar (almost)
LB Hightower Star
TE Gronkowsk Superstar (possible GOAT)

No where else do you find Superstars now that anomaly LG Mankins is gone.

Other Stars exist at:
RT Volmer,(Alternate LOT?)
LB Collins (developing),
LDE Ninkovitch,
S McCourty,
RB Ridley (1300yard back)

It seems BB honors his thesis, in practice. The W-L record tends to confirm it too.

 

[mgteich]

So do I despise the timing. I suspect it was an unplanned event.

But I still respect Belichick's willingness to take advantage of the opportunity, despite the hurt. He chose to secure a Hernandez-type replacement, a mid-high draft pick, some Cap relief, and another mid-high draft pick freed from drafting a Hernandez type TE. Aquiring Tim Wright completes the reconstruction of the TE & receiving positions.

I believe he fully expected the problems and still did it. BB is mostly right, but he is wrong some times too. That is what he gets paid to do.

A few weeks ago, folks thought that the TE position was a disaster. Gronk is gradually getting healthier. Belichick added a receiving TE in Wright, and we still have our backup Hooman, who started several games for a #3 offense last year. And, all of a sudden, we don't mention the TE position much, except perhaps to ask for Gronk's blocking to be near 100% soon.

 

[Fencer]

One thing BB does not have a particularly good track record in is keeping players healthy. So while I'm generally in the "in BB we trust" camp, that doesn't mean we should assume the OL is being optimized for keeping Brady healthy.

 

[supafly]

Wendell was injured for part of a game.

Actually, Wendell has only played in part of a game--and that was the opener in Miami.

Since then, he's missed 2.5 games.

 

[woolster22]

Jordan Devey is the villain of the week. Any updated photos for Jordan Devey? My dartboard needs a "face" change.

Devey should have been three villain of the first three games. Some posters were observant enough to wail about his starting week one and two...The guy flat out sucks.

Lol, my wife can tell you how bad devey is, I flip out every time he gets beat or slows up a play. Even she asked me why he was out there after the penalty and sack last week...then Stork gets trotted out and things look much better.

 

[woolster22]

Mentioning Tucker doesn't help you since he was a vet in for a try-out. Not a UDFA trying to make a team.



Who is the starting OC for the San Diego Chargers?



I agree that he was incorrect about Light being drafted the year before Mankins. However, It was Tom Ashworth who stepped in for Light.


The Pro-Bowl doesn't mean anything. Why do people keep bringing it up. It has no bearing on how good a player truly is..

To his defense Re: Rich Ohrenberger, San Diego is awful close to Mexico...cheap, easy and unfettered access to steroids and the like...

 

[woolster22]

Sciz posted this in the other thread re: Solder. I think it speaks volumes to how many people aren't giving Solder enough credit..

How about when Solder looked like a drunk fool stumbling in front of tuck when Brady got "driven to the ground" (see: Hightower, week one. Actually, bad example, after all the cbs promo highlights of the Hightower's hit, it is clear he unwrapped and tried to lessen the impact of his body on the qb ranked 33 in a 32 team league. But I digress). The only question I have is if the back (Ridley?) was supposed to be picking up pressure inside then releasing, rather than release and "f the blitz pick up."

Did Sciz' breakdown include the snap when Stork slid all the way back to Brady's blindside on what seemed a designed call?

 

[woolster22]

This is a look at the top OG and OC in the NFL, very few were taken in the fourth round or later:

Justin Blaylock - #39
Geoff Schwartz - #244
David DeCastro - #24
Jhari Evans - #108
Andy Levitre - #51
Logan Mankins - #32
Ben Grubbs - #29
Marshal Yanda - #86
Evan Mathis - #79
Mike Iupati - #17
Alex Boone - UDFA
Davin Joseph - #23
Kevin Zeitler - #27
Kyle Long - #20
Chance Warmack - #10
Jonathan Cooper - #7
Jon Asamoah - #68
Rodger Saffold - #33
Brandon Brooks - #76
Larry Warford - #65
Louis Vasquez - #78
Josh Sitton - #135
Alex Mack - #21
Chris Myers - #200
Max Unger - #49
Eric Wood - #28
John Sullivan - #187
Nick Mangold - #29
Mike Pouncey - #15
Maurkice Pouncey - #18
Ryan Kalil - #59
Jason Kelce - #191

In the past 5 NFL drafts Belichick has invested 1, yes that is a 1 – pick in the first 3 rounds of the draft on an OL. That is not a commitment to building a strong OL, not even close, up until this season he had not draft an OL any place in the draft in since 2011.

If I was starting a restaurant, my first attempt for hiring a chef would be one Dante Scarnechia, clearly he has plenty of experience making chicken salad out of chicken ****, with a refreshing lemonade, although he was not even given lemons.

 

[woolster22]

I agree that Belichick always looks at more than this year and next year. He is a master at cap planning. I agree that $7M isn't a lot. But I don't think that the situation is anyway dire.

My point was to be clear that if we currently have $7M of cap room, the signing of Revis to a new contract would then leave us with an additional $12M of cap room. Even after re-signing Revis, McCourty and Gostkowski, we still would have about the same $7M that is there now. The NET of re-signing all three of our key free agents would be a cap effect of about zero.

2015 cap NOW - $25M
---------------
Revis $25M
McCourty $0M
Gostkowski $0M

estimated 2105 cap after re-signings -$25M
------------------------------------------
Revis remaining bonus $5M
Revis new contract $8M first year cap
McCourty contract $8M first year cap
Gostkowski contract $4M first year cap

Since McCourty and Gostkowski would replace 2 players on the roster, there would be a net gain of almost $1M.

Lol mg, what makes you think Revis signs anything that brings guys number into the single digits? Especially with "cap hit?" Maybe an 8 mil base for a few years with ~10mil/year signing bonus...brings that cap hit way back up.

 

[woolster22]

We do seem to forget that 2013 offense was the #3 offense in the NFL

Is the 2014 OL really that much worse than the 2013 OL? Will it be that much worse by mid-season?

Six weeks ago, this team was being discussed HERE on this board as having the 2nd best team since winning the last SB, and potentially the 2nd best offense ever.

We lost Mankins. Stork has been injured through much of the off-season. Wendell was injured for part of a game. The team wilted in the 2nd half in the 90 degree temperature of Miami (where we do NOT have a great record). And we are 2-1.

And what is the conclusion of so many on this board: that we have the worst OL in the league, a terrible offense and we obviously should panic.

We may win or lose on Monday. We may or may not have a winning record at the bye week. HOWEVER, this team is a playoff team. How well they are prepared for the playoffs will depend on health. The talent is sufficient. The requirement of so many that we have top draft choices, and future pro bowlers at every position is simply nonsense.

BOTTOM LINE
The offensive line is a period of transition and will be for 2014 and 2015. The OL is our weakest unit. IMHO, if we start Wendell and Connolly, we will have a line almost as good as last year (consider the weeks when Solder was out). Obviously, we want Stork to be ready. When he is, I think that the OL will be at least as good as 2013 when we had a top 3 offense. And I haven't a clue why Kline isn't starting.

Start Wendell? Are you drunk? Poe would eat that undersized puke for breakfast. Go watch the fourth quarter of last week's game. Stork is ready from a physical standpoint, the calls are the question.

Granted, Stork didn't get great initial push in the run game, but he did an excellent job moving his man laterally. There was one play where it seemed he assumed help from Connelly (or the dt knew the cadence) and was beaten like a mule on a shotgun snap. However, he set the pocket very well and showed excellent mobility. He finished blocks and a few times pancaked and moved down the line.
If Wendell is on the field Monday instead of Stork I'll be hanging out at Gillette in hopes of kidnapping Googs for the betterment of the team. Remember, coach Googs out a-holed this a-hole, on a team full of a-holes...

 

[DocHoliday]

Yes. You seem to set Brady apart. You forget that Belichick drafted Brady too.

That's quite a stretch. BB wasn't too enthused with Brady and it took an unusual amount of convincing from a scout to get him drafted.

 

[AzPatsFan]

Last time I looked Brady wears a Flying Elvis on his helmet. The Stork didn't deposit Brady on the doorstep.

BB was in charge of the drafting. Whether BB was listening to others more, or the QB coach/scout less, nevertheless he DID DRAFT Brady.

He also did something highly irregular. BB kept 4 QBs, just so he had no chance of losing Brady.

It was never a situation where Brady was rammed down his throat.

 

[supafly]

Lol mg, what makes you think Revis signs anything that brings guys number into the single digits? Especially with "cap hit?" Maybe an 8 mil base for a few years with ~10mil/year signing bonus...brings that cap hit way back up.

The 8-9m dollar cap hit for the first year was just something that he used per my hypothetical example, so it's not really his fault as he was just replying to my post. The 8-9 million dollar example was an "even if" scenario, meaning "even if" it's that low...etc.

I do agree with you that it's pretty unlikely to see a 8-9m dollar year one cap hit, however his point was just to show that we'll actually be seeing more cap money freed up for 2015 should Revis resign here on a longer term deal.

 

[supafly]

Start Wendell? Are you drunk? Poe would eat that undersized puke for breakfast. Go watch the fourth quarter of last week's game. Stork is ready from a physical standpoint, the calls are the question.

I think we all want to see Stork get more playing time, and hopefully that happens soon.

Of course, the other side of the coin is that many feel that putting a rookie up against Poe would be just as much as a blood bath as Wendell.

One could argue that at least Wendell may help with the experience, cohesion, and line calls vs. a formidable defensive front.

It will be interesting to see what Belichick ends up doing. I'm guessing that we may see some more max protect type of calls, and/or more Gronkowski. Let's just hope for a marked improvement one way or another.