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How Confident Are You?

  • 0 - 10% Chance Pats Win

    Votes: 7 4.0%
  • 10 - 25% Chance Pats Win

    Votes: 3 1.7%
  • 25 - 50% Chance Pats Win

    Votes: 13 7.3%
  • 50 - 65% Chance Pats Win

    Votes: 54 30.5%
  • 65 - 80% Chance Pats Win

    Votes: 59 33.3%
  • 80%+ Chance Pats Win

    Votes: 41 23.2%

  • Total voters
    177
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Been switching between coverage for guests this week and hit a gambling expert (Lang I think) on Felger and Mazz just now. He's got a 21-3-2 record in SB covering picks.

Anyways I'm not huge in gambling speak, but he said that the Vegas boys have been hit hard this playoff season. As in taken it right up the rear end and are gunshy. They don't want to move the line to say 3.5 because of a potential rush of money on ATL that would set them up for another bath.

Has nothing to do with the Falcons. Has more of a problem with the the dogs hosing Vegas so far. Makes me feel a lot better.
 
It's the Falcon's year to soar.......... Falcon's 41 - Patriots 27
So you expect your offense to score almost triple what the patriots allow per game and 10 points more than they allowed to anyone, while at the same time having your defense allow fewer points to the patriot offense than you allowed to 9 of your 16 opponents?
Really?
Let me use that math in reverse
Patriots 72 falcons 15
 
It's the Falcon's year to soar.......... Falcon's 41 - Patriots 27

Not going to say it can't happen. It could. Maybe it could be another SEA game or the team just has the real unfortunate timing to have a stinker of a game.

IMO the Pats at their best won't get beat like that.
 
About 60% confident. 100% confident the Pats are a better team, both talent and coaching-wise. But in a one game winner take all setting, variance can swing wildly...and it has happened repeatedly in Pats SBs...

Who saw the Panthers scoring 3 TDs over 30yds when the 2003 Pats bend but don't break D barely gave up any all year?

David Tyree with a TD and the helmet catch?

The Giants fumbles all recovered by the Giants in SB46? Mario effing Manningham?

Chris Matthews? Kearse's circus catch? Malcom Butler actually holding onto that pick (always underrated)?

I've been blessed to see the BB/Brady Pats in 6 SBs. But I've seen way too much strange feces in them to expect things to go according to plan. Would love to see things unfold in a normal fashion for a change.

Regards,
Chris
 
I share the same feeling as many of you. I really feel that we're the better team. Doesn't mean I can be that confident that we'll win
 
I think it depends on putting ATL behind in the first quarter or so. The Pats don't have to score first, but they can't let that Offense get two or more scores ahead. If you look at how the Falcons won games in the last month or so of the Regular Season and into the playoffs, they like to get out to big leads. I think that making the Falcons play close or from behind is important. It's unfamiliar territory and the pressure of the situation will build.

The longer the game is competitive or the Pats are ahead, the better it is for NE. I just plain think that the Pats are the tougher team, which they showed in pushing Pittsburgh around. Seattle is not a good Road Team. Green Bay could have been a tough opponent for Atlanta, but by the time the Packers got to the NFCCG, they were out of gas.
 
I am confident they can run the football on them if they stick with the running game. Once again the OL will have to provide time for brady.
 
Atlanta radio color guy on f&m, "if Atlanta plays their best game they cant lose"...

Guy stresses Atlanta is NOT a zone team anymore... They play press man with a ton of speed at linebacker ... Again, this should worry Pats fans when they get into the inevitable 3d and 9 or 10 after blount gets one of his usual 3 or 4 losses on first down and Brady hurries a 2nd and 10 pass into someone's feet...
 
Atlanta radio color guy on f&m, "if Atlanta plays their best game they cant lose"...

Guy stresses Atlanta is NOT a zone team anymore... They play press man with a ton of speed at linebacker ... Again, this should worry Pats fans when they get into the inevitable 3d and 9 or 10 after blunt gets one of his usual 3 or 4 losses and Brady hurries a 2nd and 10 pass into someone's feet...

Good. Here come the rub routes!

It's not about man vs. zone. It's about protecting Tom.

Regards,
Chris
 
I feel like the Pats should win, but this will definitely be the best team they face all year. I wish Gronk was healthy!
 
Atlanta color guy also added that this Atlanta defense is faster than Seattle and plays much more man defense...
 
Atlanta color guy also added that this Atlanta defense is faster than Seattle and plays much more man defense...

It's not man v zone. Brady will pick either apart. It's whether he gets enough time to throw.
 
It's the Falcon's year to soar.......... Falcon's 41 - Patriots 27

Your assumption is that the patriots defense is secretly overrated as they haven't faced a top quarterback in the regular season. The patriots' main strength is the offense and that the defense is bend and don't break just like every other defense we had recently. No doubt the defense is much weaker than that of the 2015 Denver Broncos,2014 patriots or even a fully loaded legion of boom. So yes, it's entirely possible for us to get blown out like the packers and seahawks.
 
Atlanta color guy also added that this Atlanta defense is faster than Seattle and plays much more man defense...
They may beat us, who knows. But some of those people are getting nuts. Seattle was #1 this year against the run, the Falcons were #26. And in the NFCCG Football Outsiders preview they said that while Atlanta's pass defense has improved of late, their run defense has gotten worse.

It doesn't seem that long ago we were hearing about the new and improved Steeler defense with all the new, young players inserted since the first Patriot-Steeler game and how much better they were . . .
 
The only other Super Bowl I was this confident in was Philly. I knew that '04 team was taking it.
 
Atlanta radio color guy on f&m, "if Atlanta plays their best game they cant lose"...

Guy stresses Atlanta is NOT a zone team anymore... They play press man with a ton of speed at linebacker ... Again, this should worry Pats fans when they get into the inevitable 3d and 9 or 10 after blount gets one of his usual 3 or 4 losses on first down and Brady hurries a 2nd and 10 pass into someone's feet...
You are already in game day thread mode ! Nice!
 
I think I am 58% in favor of a Pats win. I am not sure if that qualifies as confident. I am more confident in the Pats beating the Falcons than I was the Pats beating the Sea Hawks. The only thing that gives me pause is the Atlanta defense, everyone is pointing to stats about how terrible they are.... and rightly so if you go by red zone defense. But I have a feeling they are a little better than there seasonal stats tell.
 
I've got a good feeling for sunday night, I can't quite pinpoint what is causing this good feeling, but it's a good feeling.
 
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