How Confident Are You?

[luuked]

If we win the turnover battle and O-Line protects Brady I say we win.
This part of the above post (qbno12) about sums up who wins imo.

I'd rephrase that into if we don't lose the turnover battle we win. Winning in turnovers would essentially guarantee a win.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Quite confident beforehand but now that Ernie Adams has pilfered Atlanter's game plans I'm all in!

 

[nabwong]

I'm praying Matt Ryan trips over his shoelace and knocks himself out.

 

[pherein]

I'm praying Matt Ryan trips over his shoelace and knocks himself out.

Has happend lol. We call him Matty Ice because he freezes in big games.

 

[Nikolai]

I feel more comfortable than I did a week ago.

I'm seeing this the same way I saw the Steeler game, actually. They were an unbalanced team, and the Pats took advantage, making them look pedestrian. If they do the same to Atlanta, the Falcons will suddenly become "pretenders" in the eyes of Hatriot Nation.

 

[UFGatorPat]

One could classify them as "unpredictable". They have talent on the D but the question is can they perform as a team in a high-stake game like this since their individual talents are (far) below those of Carolina, Denver, Seattle, KC in previous years.

They have great young, team speed. This is a game where we need to be patient offensively and confuse their younger DBs and pound the rock some. A lot of the underneath stuff may not be there early. Poole in the slot is undrafted but quick and tackles well. They also have Allen who is undersized but fast. Neal is good downhill but doesn't have great horizontal recovery agility. I'd attack those guys later in the game a lot once they have used up their "juice" early in the game especially being their first trip to the SB. They're going to be looking for an early turnover (who isn't?).

At the same time, if their LBers are just going to attack the gaps in the run game like Pitt we should throw at will and then PA. Mitchell and DA could be big in this game getting in the exterior gaps and in the seams in their Cover 3.

I'm not too worried about a defense without an elite pass rush with 2 weeks to prepare. Like playing SEA without Bennett and Sherman.

 

[BobDigital]

Looking on paper and eye test I am a steady 60%. However if I were to try to account for X factors I would put it closer to 65%.

That is pretty close. If we lose the turnover battle by 1 that puts us near even. If the Pats get 1 huge PI play called against them that is iffy that pretty much puts us near even too.

In a clean and even game I give the Pats 4-5 points. I made a 10 point win prediction though just cause i think Ryan is very due for a turnover or two and has not been as careful with the ball as the stats lead you to believe and i think that catches up with him this game against a good D (one of the X factors... i do believe in the "due" factor).

Speaking of due... 6 out of 6 games came down to 3-4 points and last minute plays. What are the odds? Not this game. Pats are due to be in a game with a 2 score win or loss. Since I don't believe the Pats will lose to this team by 2 scores I have no choice but to believe they will win by 2 scores (10 points) making me again more confident.

I know this is not Xs and Os or reasons to do with this one game. However to me anyway they are compelling reasons.

So within the game itself 60%... When i judge this game against macro trends and natural averages I believe should happen I need to give it 65% to win for the Pats.

 

[neuronet]

There's no 100% option.

thread = fail

No....thread=success...That would be bad karma. This thread I made in January 2008 is why we lost SB 42 (I'm sorry guys...never again):
By how many points will the Patriots win?

 

[wolverinejoe80]

i'm too confident. i'm done getting scared. i guess monkey is off my back after we beat seattle. lol

and honestly, i won't even get mad if we lose. i'm just very proud of this team. getting this far without gronk?

 

[irishfanatic]

I'd rephrase that into if we don't lose the turnover battle we win. Winning in turnovers would essentially guarantee a win.

Probably more accurate but a guy can be greedy, can't he ??

 

[deters]

Extremely confident. Atlanta is a good team, but highly overrated imo.

 

[GlumFalconFan]

Cautiously optimistic. Blount having a great gene worries me. Fortunately, any given Sunday.

 

[livinginthe past]

Very confident actually.

I've put a reasonable sum of money on an alternative spread of Patriots -13.

The Falcons D is the elephant in the room that the media won't acknowledge because they want to play up the 'close match-up' angle but I don't really see it.

The only thing they'll mention is that they are 27th ranked (and worse in RZ D) but quickly tack on the addendum that they are so much more improved since week 10 or whatever (the lack of offensive ability in their opponents over the time gets strangely ignored).

Don't get me wrong i'll be full of butterflies come game day because some crazy sh*t can happen - I just don't see it as likely enough to help a hugely unbalanced Falcons team get within double digits.

We are going to run and pass all over that D - and our own D is going make make enough plays to put this one away early.

 

[livinginthe past]

They have great young, team speed. This is a game where we need to be patient offensively and confuse their younger DBs and pound the rock some. A lot of the underneath stuff may not be there early. Poole in the slot is undrafted but quick and tackles well. They also have Allen who is undersized but fast. Neal is good downhill but doesn't have great horizontal recovery agility. I'd attack those guys later in the game a lot once they have used up their "juice" early in the game especially being their first trip to the SB. They're going to be looking for an early turnover (who isn't?).

At the same time, if their LBers are just going to attack the gaps in the run game like Pitt we should throw at will and then PA. Mitchell and DA could be big in this game getting in the exterior gaps and in the seams in their Cover 3.

I'm not too worried about a defense without an elite pass rush with 2 weeks to prepare. Like playing SEA without Bennett and Sherman.

I keep hearing how 'fast' and 'young' this Atlanta D is.

To me, when you combine those two things against a BB coached team you get a D that simply runs itself out of position quicker than average.

The Pittsburgh D is much better than the Atlanta version - people should lose track of that just because we made their zone D our b*tch.

The Steelers D is better all the way from the front 7 to the back 4 - we'll run on the Atlanta front MUCH easier than we did against the Steelers (or Texans).

 

[archstanton543]

I've got a little bit of a gut but otherwise I don't have a problem with confidence. Women seem to find me attractive...more or less. I have no problem getting up in front of people and speaking. So, yeah, I'd say I'm above average in confidence.

 

[yukon cornelius]

I'm as confident as the Rams were in 2002


unfortunately, I am also as confident as the Rams were in 2002

 

[jimnance]

i'm too confident. i'm done getting scared. i guess monkey is off my back after we beat seattle. lol

and honestly, i won't even get mad if we lose. i'm just very proud of this team. getting this far without gronk?

Gave you the "winner" because you're the only one who brought up how proud you are of this team. We ALL are but you said it.

This team and 2014 are both very tough gritty closeknit teams. Both excellent defensive teams. Both are much closer to the 2001-2004 teams than they are to the 2007-2013 squads. And we all know that this certainly one of BB's favorite teams- maybe his overall favorite. I've never heard him praise any team inseason like this one. And he always says how closeknit this bunch is- they play for each other. Also always mentions how hardworking physically and mentally tough they are. I LOVE this team.


I'm also extremely confident. Think it would take a bunch of fluky plays for atl to win. I don't see the Pats beating themselves. Not THIS team.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

They are on a mission to win it for TB12.

 

[A Defiant Goose]

I'm not as confident as I was in SB 42 but not as worried as I was for SB 49

 

[UFGatorPat]

Looking on paper and eye test I am a steady 60%. However if I were to try to account for X factors I would put it closer to 65%.

That is pretty close. If we lose the turnover battle by 1 that puts us near even. If the Pats get 1 huge PI play called against them that is iffy that pretty much puts us near even too.

In a clean and even game I give the Pats 4-5 points. I made a 10 point win prediction though just cause i think Ryan is very due for a turnover or two and has not been as careful with the ball as the stats lead you to believe and i think that catches up with him this game against a good D (one of the X factors... i do believe in the "due" factor).

Speaking of due... 6 out of 6 games came down to 3-4 points and last minute plays. What are the odds? Not this game. Pats are due to be in a game with a 2 score win or loss. Since I don't believe the Pats will lose to this team by 2 scores I have no choice but to believe they will win by 2 scores (10 points) making me again more confident.

I know this is not Xs and Os or reasons to do with this one game. However to me anyway they are compelling reasons.

So within the game itself 60%... When i judge this game against macro trends and natural averages I believe should happen I need to give it 65% to win for the Pats.

I think Ryan will get impatient and make a mistake also unless we are just getting torched or giving up PI calls and they are having a lot of success.