Gut Feel - CIN and MIA are locked into their picks

[mgteich]

My gut feel is that CIN and MIA will draft Sewell and Chase. Both players are a great fit for both teams. The wild card is that one of them could draft Pitts if he there.
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We will all hold our breath to see who goes 1,2 and 3.
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And then the action begins at 4 and 7. It would seem that the players in the mix are Pitts and the QB's.

The teams interested might include DEN, NE, WASH, and perhaps CAR and CHI. DEN clearly has the upper hand, given that they currently pick at 9. Our cost is lots more than theirs.
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[aluminum seats]

This pearl was just too precious for any of the draft threads eh?

 

[Hyped]

I think I agree that both CIN/MIA have 2-3 guys on their short list at the most, but I don't think they are opposed to trading down (even if Miami went down and back up).

From Cincinnati's perspective...they need Sewell...but they can get Slater/Darrisaw in the teens...

From Miami's perspective...Chase might be the best...but this is a DEEP WR class. They might be able to fleece someone else... what if Jerry Jones gives up #10 and a few more picks? I think Miami would be all over that...they'd give up Pitts/Chase...but still be in play for Waddle/Smith.

 

[Ivan]

I think this depends upon what Atlanta does, they could very well go for Pitts, then Cindy* will have to choose between the OT and Chase, and if they go Chase then I think Miami will look to trade down again.

Spellcheck insists upon calling Cincy-Cindy, I’m done correcting it, so Cindy it is.

 

[Ring 6]

My gut feel is that CIN and MIA will draft Sewell and Chase. Both players are a great fit for both teams. The wild card is that one of them could draft Pitts if he there.
================
We will all hold our breath to see who goes 1,2 and 3.
================
And then the action begins at 4 and 7. It would seem that the players in the mix are Pitts and the QB's.

The teams interested might include DEN, NE, WASH, and perhaps CAR and CHI. DEN clearly has the upper hand, given that they currently pick at 9. Our cost is lots more than theirs.
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Our cost isn’t more than theirs, but their 1 is more valuable so the package we have to include over and above our 1 is higher.
15 + 60 = 9

 

[Lansdowne]

Assuming Chase is there at 5 it might be too good to pass up the opportunity to have Burrow link back up with his favorite college teammate. The Bengals can always find their tackle by using draft capital to trade back into the latter portion of the first, or waiting until pick 38 and taking whoever’s there in the Cosmi/Leatherwood/Carman/Mayfield group. It’s probably down to the two at 5 (Sewell or Chase) but I don’t think either is a lock.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

I think Miami has a thesis but it's really hard to say they're locked in when at #6 several different scenarios could play out before they pick. I think they probably feel good about taking the best offensive skill player available, Pitts or Chase.

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[Ochmed Jones]

I do not think draft boards will be finalized before Tuesday before the draft.

 

[Ivan]

Assuming Chase is there at 5 it might be too good to pass up the opportunity to have Burrow link back up with his favorite college teammate. The Bengals can always find their tackle by using draft capital to trade back into the latter portion of the first, or waiting until pick 38 and taking whoever’s there in the Cosmi/Leatherwood/Carman/Mayfield group. It’s probably down to the two at 5 (Sewell or Chase) but I don’t think either is a lock.

This is how I see it as well. There will be some really good tackles in the 2nd round and Chase is the best receiver in this class.

 

[mgteich]

Our cost isn’t more than theirs, but their 1 is more valuable so the package we have to include over and above our 1 is higher.
15 + 60 = 9

I'm sure you understand. Perhaps others do not.
The cost of moving to #4 for DEN would be to include their 2nd. The cost for us in our entire draft.

 

[farn]

Drafts are unpredictable and you never know who’s moving up / down. Add to that a strange NCAA season & bad GMs picking in the top 10...

There is no way of knowing how it’ll go. Guessing game at best.

 

[Ivan]

I think I agree that both CIN/MIA have 2-3 guys on their short list at the most, but I don't think they are opposed to trading down (even if Miami went down and back up).

From Cincinnati's perspective...they need Sewell...but they can get Slater/Darrisaw in the teens...

From Miami's perspective...Chase might be the best...but this is a DEEP WR class. They might be able to fleece someone else... what if Jerry Jones gives up #10 and a few more picks? I think Miami would be all over that...they'd give up Pitts/Chase...but still be in play for Waddle/Smith.

I agree that Miami knew they were going to get a great prospect at #6, but I really think they believed it would be Pitts or Chase, I don’t think they wanted the OT at #6. I don’t see them trading with the Patriots but I think they will look to move if Pitts and Chase go 4 and 5.

 

[Ring 6]

I'm sure you understand. Perhaps others do not.
The cost of moving to #4 for DEN would be to include their 2nd. The cost for us in our entire draft.

If it our entire draft then it would cost Denver their entire draft minus a 2 or 3.

 

[mgteich]

If it our entire draft then it would cost Denver their entire draft minus a 2 or 3.

do the math

DEN 9 + 40 = 1850
NEP 15, 46, 96, 120, 122, 139, 177, 197, 242 = 1829.5

ATL 4 = 1800

 

[TheRainMaker]

Mike Tannebaum said on a show a couple days ago that if NE swapped picks with Carolina at #8, he expects Carolina to ask for NE’s 1st next year as well. No thanks.

 

[imahobgoblin]

do the math

DEN 9 + 40 = 1850
NEP 15, 46, 96, 120, 122, 139, 177, 197, 242 = 1829.5

ATL 4 = 1800

Exactly, but the fantasy footballers do not get this. I would rather have 15 and 46 than lose it all. We can combine some of the rest to move around on day 2.

 

[ashley]

Cincy has a terrible O line and they need to protect Burrow so Sewell would make sense but pairing him again with Chase would be tempting...I would lean toward the O lineman though. I think Miami could take Pitts, Chase or Sewell with Sewell probably being the 3rd choice. I think Miami would be ecstatic if Atlanta takes a Qb at 4.

 

[Deus Irae]

Exactly, but the fantasy footballers do not get this. I would rather have 15 and 46 than lose it all. We can combine some of the rest to move around on day 2.

It's not about fantasy football. It's about getting your QBOTF.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think the Bengals will take Chase. If Pitts goes #4 then I think Miami takes Smith. If a QB goes #4 then I think Miami takes Pitts, he's just a little more uniquely talented than Smith.

 

[WinstonSmith]

It's not about fantasy football. It's about getting your QBOTF.

Sure, but maybe mortgaging the entire draft (or the equivalent of) for a guy that's available at 4, who's far from a sure thing and a reach at 4, might not be the best play... especially if the Pats can wait to see if the QBOTF can be secured with a less costly smaller move up.