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Gut Feel - CIN and MIA are locked into their picks

2021 Patriots Season:
Upcoming Opponent:
Next Up: at Jets
Pick Results: NE: 99.1% at NYJ: 0.9%

Sun
Sep 19th

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mgteich

PatsFans.com Veteran
PatsFans.com Supporter
Same math count all of Denver’s picks except the 2nd, like I said.
ultimately 2022 picks will be included

It’s kind of silly to include every pick when 46 = 440 and all 7 other picks equal 339.5.
I agree that you understand. The reality is understand our assets. A trade to 4 cannot be made without future assets, at least including next year's first. The question is what additional assets would be necessary. Personally, I would want to keep this year's 2nd if we can.
 

WinstonSmith

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
If you think he's a QBOTF, you trade up. If you don't, you pass on the opportunity. This isn't rocket science, but it's hugely important that you (whoever you are) get it right, as the Bears can tell you.

The "QBOTF candidate" angle is just a cop out. Again, as SF just made clear. Trevor Lawrence is "just" a QBOTF candidate, after all, yet you don't see the Jags offering up that #1 slot for the simple price of what's on a draft value chart. The 4th pick will have a much higher bust risk than Trevor Lawrence. I agree that if you think that he is the one then you make the trade, my point is that at 4 he's no longer a slam dunk and the risk is not worth the required draft capital to move up.

If you think he's a QBOTF, you trade up. If you don't, you pass on the opportunity. This isn't rocket science, but it's hugely important that you (whoever you are) get it right, as the Bears can tell you.

The "QBOTF candidate" angle is just a cop out. Again, as SF just made clear. Trevor Lawrence is "just" a QBOTF candidate, after all, yet you don't see the Jags offering up that #1 slot for the simple price of what's on a draft value chart.
It's not a cop out, after the first two picks the QBs that are left, in my opinion, are talented "candidates" with upside, but not worth the risk of expending the huge draft capital needed to move from 15.
 

Deus Irae

PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club
PatsFans.com Supporter
It's not a cop out, after the first two picks the QBs that are left, in my opinion, are talented "candidates" with upside, but not worth the risk of expending the huge draft capital needed to move from 15.
Then your opinion is based upon a false premise, and fails the test of logic. Literally all of the players being drafted are "candidates", and that includes Lawrence a/k/a the first pick. Even a "sure thing" player is not a sure thing. That's the very nature of the draft.
 
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Triumph

Hall of Fame Poster
Sports fans have become closet GMs, which is fine and which drives a lot of discussion on the air and online. But a lot of those closet GMs have also take to wildly overvaluing their end of everything, be it their team's picks or their team's players, or their team's drawing power, etc... And, here at Patsfans.com, we've got a bunch of people who think "fair" is when the Patriots pay about a buck for a flawless 10 carat diamond.
They were willing to part with Stidham and a 7th round pick for Stefon Diggs.
 

WinstonSmith

Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
Then your opinion is based upon a false premise, and fails the test of logic. Literally all of the players being drafted are "candidates", and that includes Lawrence a/k/a the first pick. Even a "sure thing" player is not a sure thing. That's the very nature of the draft.
Yes, even the top 2 QB prospects are candidates and are not guaranteed to succeed, I made the distinction to illustrate that in my opinion the top 2 candidates have a low enough risk level and a high enough ceiling to make them worth a bundle in draft capital.

After the 2nd QB, or now actually after the 3rd QB the associated risk of the candidate not transitioning to the QBOTF increases dramatically.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats made a moderate move up to select a QB in the draft depending how the dominoes fall, but would be shocked if they were to spend the draft capital needed to move up to 4.
 

patfanken

PatsFans.com Supporter
PatsFans.com Supporter
He’s going up to get fields who will be starting by the end of October and the offense will get markedly better with him in there.
I wouldn't hate it if he moved up to 7 to grab Fields. Based on the number of games he started AND the competition he played against,k to go along with his raw physical skills I would be very disappointed if he wasn't pressing Cam for his job mid season and being the presumptive starter by season 2. BUT the odds are that Fields is likely the SF pick so the matter will be moot.

Lance is by far the greatest risk reward pick we've seen in a long while. Even highly picked QB's fail, but so few have SO much risk associated to such a high pick. No would would be surprised if he didn't work out. But what would that end up costing you in the end. In every draft there are around 10- players who can be called "difference makers" from day one in a program. The fact that there is going to be 5 QB's likely to go in the first 10 picks, there is a CHANCE that one of these kinds of players is going to be there when the Pats pick at 15. When are they likely to get a chance like this again.

If one of the top LB's Edge guys or (dare I say) WR's are available there, they CANNONT pass on it. I'd add DLmen if there were any that fit in the category.

There ARE good and even great players that are there in the bottom 15 of the first round, but most of them can be lumped, talent wise) with everybody else that go in the 2nd and early 3rd rounds. From what I've read from the draft gurus, 15-75 get you players you expect to develop into starters within the first 3 years of their contracts. Of course that's not how it works out, but its what most teams EXPECT

For the last 20 years, with but one exception (Mayo) the Pats have been drafting from that 2nd level of player every April. And given our FA haul so far and the prospect of further improving the roster, I would expect THIS team to be at least good enough that we won't be drafting in the top 15 any time soon (even with Cam)

So I have to tell you, I'd have a really hard time pulling the trigger on anyone other than an DE. LB, or WR. I would hate it if we trade down almost as much as I would hate to trade up. Even if Lance winds up with us at 15, ('d be very wary of having high expectations of him.
 
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