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Gut Feel - CIN and MIA are locked into their picks

2021 Patriots Season:
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Pick Results: MIA: 0% at NE: 0%

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Sep 12th

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Triumph

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Mike Tannebaum said on a show a couple days ago that if NE swapped picks with Carolina at #8, he expects Carolina to ask for NE’s 1st next year as well. No thanks.

Bingo

The only reason to move up is for a QB who wont play this year unless Cam is injured or performing so bad that anybody is better than nothing.
 

Ring 6

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do the math

DEN 9 + 40 = 1850
NEP 15, 46, 96, 120, 122, 139, 177, 197, 242 = 1829.5

ATL 4 = 1800
Same math count all of Denver’s picks except the 2nd, like I said.
ultimately 2022 picks will be included

It’s kind of silly to include every pick when 46 = 440 and all 7 other picks equal 339.5.
 

Ring 6

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Mike Tannebaum said on a show a couple days ago that if NE swapped picks with Carolina at #8, he expects Carolina to ask for NE’s 1st next year as well. No thanks.

Say no to that and we will be a mediocre team that needs to package that pick with 2023s to move up and probably get a worse qb prospect.
Spending 2 1s to get a QB is a very reasonable move.
 

Patsgofor4

In the Starting Line-Up
Same math count all of Denver’s picks except the 2nd, like I said.
ultimately 2022 picks will be included

It’s kind of silly to include every pick when 46 = 440 and all 7 other picks equal 339.5.

Bill is not moving up to 4. No chance. Maybe 10-13, if the right guy falls, whoever that is.
 

patfanken

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here's the thing about why Bill will NEVER cough up a second first round pick even if Trey lance is available at 8.

First the Pats QB situation wouldn't be any better for the 2021 season now than it would be the day after the draft and secondly it might not be that much better in in 2022 either. Its one thing if he might be of some help this year like the top 4 guys might and be a shoe in to start in year 2 But based on the limited games he's played and against the competition he played against, he might not be ready to start until 2023.
 

billdog3484

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We are not getting to number 4 without parting with our ‘22 first. It would be malpractice if the falcons didn’t get that.
 

billdog3484

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here's the thing about why Bill will NEVER cough up a second first round pick even if Trey lance is available at 8.

First the Pats QB situation wouldn't be any better for the 2021 season now than it would be the day after the draft and secondly it might not be that much better in in 2022 either. Its one thing if he might be of some help this year like the top 4 guys might and be a shoe in to start in year 2 But based on the limited games he's played and against the competition he played against, he might not be ready to start until 2023.
If bill bellichik thought trey lance or another qb would be a top quarterback you don’t think he would give up a second first round pick? Lol
 

40yrpatsfan

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Assuming SF takes Fields at 3:
- If Atl takes a QB I think it will be Lance. In that case I think we could end up with Mac Jones, because I don't think Denver or anyone else from 5 on up would see Jones as enough of an upgrade to pass on taking any of the other non-QB studs that are available.
- if Atl trades with Denver then it'll be the same result to us. Either way we'd move up to 11 or so to make sure nobody behind us moves up
- If Atl drafts a non QB, then we're in play for a trade up with Carolina at 8 for Lance
 

BaconGrundleCandy

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here's the thing about why Bill will NEVER cough up a second first round pick even if Trey lance is available at 8.

First the Pats QB situation wouldn't be any better for the 2021 season now than it would be the day after the draft and secondly it might not be that much better in in 2022 either. Its one thing if he might be of some help this year like the top 4 guys might and be a shoe in to start in year 2 But based on the limited games he's played and against the competition he played against, he might not be ready to start until 2023.
Sure he could sit, it wouldn't be a bad thing but it's not an absolute. He'd give Cam a run for his money this year. I think Cam will be better but he's on his last legs. A few years, maybe after this year and he's done from football.

Lance could be where Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jackson are after his 1st year or two. We have the OL and run game to complement him until he let's loose.
 

40yrpatsfan

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Sure he could sit, it wouldn't be a bad thing but it's not an absolute. He'd give Cam a run for his money this year. I think Cam will be better but he's on his last legs. A few years, maybe after this year and he's done from football.

Lance could be where Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Jackson are after his 1st year or two. We have the OL and run game to complement him until he let's loose.
I agree that if Lance were there at 8 and the cost to move up were a 2nd plus maybe a 2022 3rd, he'd do it. But if Jones is also there and he can get him for nothing or next to nothing by waiting, he might make that move instead.
 

Ring 6

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here's the thing about why Bill will NEVER cough up a second first round pick even if Trey lance is available at 8.

First the Pats QB situation wouldn't be any better for the 2021 season now than it would be the day after the draft and secondly it might not be that much better in in 2022 either. Its one thing if he might be of some help this year like the top 4 guys might and be a shoe in to start in year 2 But based on the limited games he's played and against the competition he played against, he might not be ready to start until 2023.
He’s going up to get fields who will be starting by the end of October and the offense will get markedly better with him in there.
 

Ring 6

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Bill is not moving up to 4. No chance. Maybe 10-13, if the right guy falls, whoever that is.
He has to get a QB if that means going to 4 so be it.
Those picks aren’t going to help you win if you don’t have a qb and he’s shown us he isn’t getting one any other way.
 

Deus Irae

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Sure, but maybe mortgaging the entire draft (or the equivalent of) for a guy that's available at 4, who's far from a sure thing and a reach at 4, might not be the best play... especially if the Pats can wait to see if the QBOTF can be secured with a less costly smaller move up.
I'm not sure why this has to be said almost daily, especially after the haul the 49ers gave up to get to #3, but we'll try again...


Your QBOTF is worth more than multiple first rounders.
 
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WinstonSmith

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I'm not sure why this has to be said almost daily, especially after the haul the 49ers gave up to get to #3, but we'll try again...


Your QBOTF is worth more than multiple first rounders.
By moving to 4 you are not getting a QBOTF, you are getting a QBOTF candidate, that may or may not develop into QBOTF. You might be able to get said QBOTF slightly later in the draft and save draft capital in a draft that is rich in prospects at non QB positions of need for the Pats.
 
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Deus Irae

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By moving to 4 you are not getting a QBOTF, you are getting a QBOTF candidate, that may or may not develop into QBOTF. You might be able to also get said QBOTF slightly later in the draft and save draft capital in a draft that is rich in prospects at non QB positions of need for the Pats.
If you think he's a QBOTF, you trade up. If you don't, you pass on the opportunity. This isn't rocket science, but it's hugely important that you (whoever you are) get it right, as the Bears can tell you.

The "QBOTF candidate" angle is just a cop out. Again, as SF just made clear. Trevor Lawrence is "just" a QBOTF candidate, after all, yet you don't see the Jags offering up that #1 slot for the simple price of what's on a draft value chart.
 

mgteich

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We sometimes talk about trading a current 2nd for a future first.

Would you trade our 2nd for a 2022 1st rounder. Of course, this depends on the teams. What if we were trading with a team we expect to draft 15th in 2022.
==========
I suspect that we overvalue a 2022 first. Folks are apoplectic about trading our 2022 first. What about this year's second and third?
 

Deus Irae

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We sometimes talk about trading a current 2nd for a future first.

Would you trade our 2nd for a 2022 1st rounder. Of course, this depends on the teams. What if we were trading with a team we expect to draft 15th in 2022.
==========
I suspect that we overvalue a 2022 first. Folks are apoplectic about trading our 2022 first. What about this year's second and third?
Sports fans have become closet GMs, which is fine and which drives a lot of discussion on the air and online. But a lot of those closet GMs have also take to wildly overvaluing their end of everything, be it their team's picks or their team's players, or their team's drawing power, etc... And, here at Patsfans.com, we've got a bunch of people who think "fair" is when the Patriots pay about a buck for a flawless 10 carat diamond.
 

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