Groh not Wolf led the 2021 draft

[skinnydog]

Not accurate

I was excluding last years draft which was great

 

[TheRainMaker]

So just so I get this straight. With your brilliant football knowledge, you first predicted them to be ok, then when they started off slow you predicted they would suck, then when they started doing well you predicted they would be great. Boy you just plain suck at this.

And Jesus, all you do is ***** about this team. Go root for another team until you get over your Brady Butt Hurt. You will be much happier.

Another great response from a complainer about a “complainer” going completely off course now bringing up Brady because... that’s what you do.

 

[moosekill]

Another great response from a complainer about a “complainer” going completely off course now bringing up Brady because... that’s what you do.

That is the reason you complain. No rational fan would post the crap you do day in and out unless they had a motive. You will be so so much happier rooting for a team you actually want to win!

 

[TheRainMaker]

That is the reason you complain. No rational fan would post the crap you do day in and out unless they had a motive. You will be so so much happier rooting for a team you actually want to win!

You’re a weirdo.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I was excluding last years draft which was great

There is no doubt they have missed badly on some high picks (JoJuan, Harry, Dawson) in 2019 and in other years but the way I see drafts is you need to factor in a handful of variables to say the draft/picks sucked or were/was good.

Historical success rate of the draft slot.
UFAs signed that were successful
Were picks traded for players/future picks
Did the team draft starters/ProBowlers?

 

[skinnydog]

There is no doubt they have missed badly on some high picks (JoJuan, Harry, Dawson) in 2019 and in other years but the way I see drafts is you need to factor in a handful of variables to say the draft/picks sucked or were/was good.

Historical success rate of the draft slot.
UFAs signed that were successful
Were picks traded for players/future picks
Did the team draft starters/ProBowlers?

I'd start with the last criteria which is a good one, probably the best criteria, and aside form last year the pasts seem to have struggled to draft starters let alone pro bowlers over the past 10 years (since he 2012 draft). I do look at UFA differently than drafted players and the Pats have done very well there. Sometime I think they would be better trading away late picks and bringing in more UFAs (sarcastic, kind of).

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

...

To suggest that the patriots scouts told belichick Harry is a terrible pick and he said I don’t care I liked him in the interview, is exhibiting a severe lack of critical thinking skills.

Who knows, but it seems like a definite possibility Here is what PatsPulpit said:

"Ultimately, Belichick makes the decisions for the team and he has a history of overriding the scouts.

He took cornerback Ras-I Dowling instead of scouts' favorite Jabaal Sheard at 33rd overall in the 2011 draft.

In Michael Holley's book War Room, Belichick is noted for siding with then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels over the scouts to take both running back Laurence Maroney and wide receiver Chad Jackson in the 2006 draft, even when then-wide receivers coach Brian Daboll "said he didn't want to coach Jackson.""

Hmmm, siding with Josh McDaniels on a bad WR choice? Hmmm, is that what happened with the Harry pick?

 

[Ring 6]

I think not. Here is what PatsPulpit said:

"Ultimately, Belichick makes the decisions for the team and he has a history of overriding the scouts.

He took cornerback Ras-I Dowling instead of scouts' favorite Jabaal Sheard at 33rd overall in the 2011 draft.

In Michael Holley's book War Room, Belichick is noted for siding with then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels over the scouts to take both running back Laurence Maroney and wide receiver Chad Jackson in the 2006 draft, even when then-wide receivers coach Brian Daboll "said he didn't want to coach Jackson.""

Hmmm, siding with Josh McDaniels on a bad WR choice? Hmmm, is that what happened with the Harry pick?

No. Scouts prepare reports on players and decision makers evaluate their reports, film, interviews, investigation, etc to make decisions.
Scouts do not say don’t draft this guy. Scouts do not sit next to the decision maker and argue about who should be picked when you are on the clock.
Everyone involved have opinions on players. You could find someone in the process who disagrees with any pick. This is a normal situation being sensatuonliazed and made into something it’s not.

 

[Patsgofor4]

I think not. Here is what PatsPulpit said:

"Ultimately, Belichick makes the decisions for the team and he has a history of overriding the scouts.

He took cornerback Ras-I Dowling instead of scouts' favorite Jabaal Sheard at 33rd overall in the 2011 draft.

In Michael Holley's book War Room, Belichick is noted for siding with then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels over the scouts to take both running back Laurence Maroney and wide receiver Chad Jackson in the 2006 draft, even when then-wide receivers coach Brian Daboll "said he didn't want to coach Jackson.""

Hmmm, siding with Josh McDaniels on a bad WR choice? Hmmm, is that what happened with the Harry pick?

You could cherry pick high-profile failed draft choices for every team in the league, and if the fly in the draft war-room wall told the truth, the scouts got overruled by the decision makers in some of those cases as well. It happens in every draft room.

Maroney, Dowling, Michel and Harry were all drafted in the general range where they had been projected to go. None of those picks turned out the way we (or Bill) had hoped but let’s not pretend that any of them were universally panned by scouts and GMs across the league. Five-head admitted that Maroney was the Colts target at RB in round one (“You stole our RB”). Does that make Polian a bum when it comes to judging talent? It has been widely reported that Harry was going to be picked by the AZ at 33 and no team knew him better than the Cardinals. Dowling was likely going to be picked within the next 5 to 10 picks.

What about all of the picks that Bill has hit on over the past 20 years. Did the scouts agree with him on all of those rd1/2 picks. Doubtful.

Mankins, Vollmer, McCourty and Collins were all considered to be reaches by some/many at the time. It is possible, if not likely, that Bill overruled the scouts on one or more of those picks, but you would never know, because that is not what sells the most books or gets the most clicks. How do we know that the Arizona area scout or college scouting director at a time didn’t try to dissuade Bill from drafting Gronk because of injury concerns?

Most of anonymous sources who provide negative anecdotes about Bill are likely ex-employees who have an ax to grind. It is not in their best interest to provide the other side of the story. The coaches/front office members/scouts who left on good terms may also know where the bodies are buried but they have respect for Bill and the patriots organization in general so they keep it to themselves.

NFL oaches mis-evaluate high profile college players every year.

Area scouts mis-evaluate high profile college players every year.

College scouting directors mis-evaluate high profile college players every year.

General managers mis-evaluate high profile college players every year.

Their own college coaches mis-evaluate the NFL potential of high profile college players every year.

In other news, water is wet, the sky is blue and the Tompa Gronka thread is an embarrassment.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

It is not about cherry picking. It is about bb going rogue (as in off script).

When bb stays on script, his drafts are above average. When he goes rogue we wind up with stellar talent like slowjuan and harry.

His ability to judge late round and UDFA talent is extraordinary. The key is to keep him true to the board on day 1 and day 2.

In wolf we trust!

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

...

His ability to judge late round and UDFA talent is extraordinary. The key is to keep him true to the board on day 1 and day 2.

In wolf we trust!

This is speculation on my part, but I suspect that the UDFA picks are based directly from evaluations by the scouts with little or no input from BB or McDaniels. I suspect that there is no way the coaches could evaluate all those prospects. As far as the first and second rounders, the coaches may be heavily involved and overthinking the choices. For WRs they should use the simple FredFromDartmouth (FFD) method: Can they get open?

I also suspect that the change Kraft discussed was to put more weight on what the scouts say....but this is wild speculation on my part. And speculating even further, McDaniels input was devalued.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

You could cherry pick high-profile failed draft choices for every team in the league, and if the fly in the draft war-room wall told the truth, the scouts got overruled by the decision makers in some of those cases as well. It happens in every draft room.

I admit to cherry picking! Guilty, but that is the fun of draft comments! Fun as long as we are respectful of other's comments and your comment was respectful (unlike some other comments). Thank you for that.

Maroney, Dowling, Michel and Harry were all drafted in the general range where they had been projected to go. None of those picks turned out the way we (or Bill)

Projected by whom? Draftnics in their basement? These projections and mocks are embarassingly bad if you go back and look at old ones (although they are lot better than the old days). We do not know how professional scouts rate these players. Of course in the food chain, I am even below a draftnic in his basement ;^)

had hoped but let’s not pretend that any of them were universally panned by scouts and GMs across the league. Five-head admitted that Maroney was the Colts target at RB in round one (“You stole our RB”). Does that make Polian a bum when it comes to judging talent? It has been widely reported that Harry was going to be picked by the AZ at 33 and no team knew him better than the Cardinals. Dowling was likely going to be picked within the next 5 to 10 picks.

Widely reported by who? Draftnics? But yes, Polian was really good so the picture is a little fuzzy if he was telling the truth.

What about all of the picks that Bill has hit on over the past 20 years. Did the scouts agree with him on all of those rd1/2 picks. Doubtful.

Ha, yes, I agree. The closer to the line of scrimmage, the better his evaluations. Again, we don't know how much of this was BB or the scounts, but BB deserves the credit for these picks. Some were calculated risks that worked out well such as Gronk. [BTW, I coined his nickname of Gronk after I saw his dance with his brothers at the draft.]

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

On the other hand, at least 5 teams really screwed up by not drafting Mac Jones in the first 15 picks last year! So yes, other teams can flop, and they usually make more spectacular flops than the Patriots. San Francisco was the worst; why their GM and coach still have a job is beyond me. The Try Lance pick was a classic case of overthinking the first pick.

I don't know if you saw it, but after the draft I asked on this forum what the results would be if the 2021 draft was done again with perfect 20/20 hindsight. I said that Mac would be the first pick or at least the first QB (forgot which). It was interesting that Mel Kiper did the same projection last week. Mel is a draftnic working in his basement (still?), but of the elevated basement draftnic sort; I am sub basement.

The FredFromDartmouth (FFD) evaluation for QBs is a little more complex than the FFD WR evaluation. First I look for QBs with pinpoint accuracy; can they hit the WR perfectly so he does not have to break stride. MAC was exquisitely accurate as was Zach Wilson (sorry there Zack for ending up with the Jets). Next I see if the QB can look off the safety and do a quick release to a secondary or tertiary WR; Mac and Zack could. Then I watch to see how elusive the QB is in the pocket, well....OK Mac was not perfect, but...

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

It will be interesting to see if McDaniels screws up the drafts of the Las Vegas Raiders. Of course he has already mortgaged the future a bit, but will he blow the remaining picks? How about next year? Will he pick a big slow WR first? If he does screw up, then we know who is to blame for Harry

 

[mgteich]

On the other hand, at least 5 teams really screwed up by not drafting Mac Jones in the first 15 picks last year! So yes, other teams can flop, and they usually make more spectacular flops than the Patriots. San Francisco was the worst; why their GM and coach still have a job is beyond me. The Try Lance pick was a classic case of overthinking the first pick.

I don't know if you saw it, but after the draft I asked on this forum what the results would be if the 2021 draft was done again with perfect 20/20 hindsight. I said that Mac would be the first pick or at least the first QB (forgot which). It was interesting that Mel Kiper did the same projection last week. Mel is a draftnic working in his basement (still?), but of the elevated basement draftnic sort; I am sub basement.

The FredFromDartmouth (FFD) evaluation for QBs is a little more complex than the FFD WR evaluation. First I look for QBs with pinpoint accuracy; can they hit the WR perfectly so he does not have to break stride. MAC was exquisitely accurate as was Zach Wilson (sorry there Zack for ending up with the Jets). Next I see if the QB can look off the safety and do a quick release to a secondary or tertiary WR; Mac and Zack could. Then I watch to see how elusive the QB is in the pocket, well....OK Mac was not perfect, but...

You are certainly free to believe that Jones was the best QB in last year's draft. It really wasn't close.

If you are asking which rookie QB did best last year, that is an entirely different question.

 

[captain stone]

You are certainly free to believe that Jones was the best QB in last year's draft. It really wasn't close.

If you are asking which rookie QB did best last year, that is an entirely different question.

Yep, anyone here who would choose Mac over Trevor Lawrence is a ****ing Idiot.

 

[JMC00]

I like what i've been hearing from Groh.

 

[Bourne Again Christian]

I like what i've been hearing from Groh.

Would feel better knowing he will stay here for 5 or 10 years and not jump for a GM Job.
Him and Wolf locked down with fat contracts would have me very optimistic.

 

[50-yard-line]

Yep, anyone here who would choose Mac over Trevor Lawrence is a ****ing Idiot.

I think Mac could have a great career if he puts in the work. No one knows a QB’s ceiling - Patriot fans should understand that well.

I’d trade him tomorrow for Lawrence, though, who, if not ruined in Jax, could (much more likely) be truly great.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Who knows, but it seems like a definite possibility Here is what PatsPulpit said:

"Ultimately, Belichick makes the decisions for the team and he has a history of overriding the scouts.

He took cornerback Ras-I Dowling instead of scouts' favorite Jabaal Sheard at 33rd overall in the 2011 draft.

In Michael Holley's book War Room, Belichick is noted for siding with then-offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels over the scouts to take both running back Laurence Maroney and wide receiver Chad Jackson in the 2006 draft, even when then-wide receivers coach Brian Daboll "said he didn't want to coach Jackson.""

Andrew Callahan in the Herald today said this:

"Bet on his[Groh] own intuition, as Bill Belichick and former director player of personnel Nick Caserio did in their final years together, reportedly at the expense of their scouts’ input?
...
However, no person or process is perfect. And Titans GM Jon Robinson, formerly the Patriots director of college scouting who initially interviewed Groh, remembers a young scout with a tinge of arrogance; the same feeling that allegedly led Belichick and Caserio to defy their scouts for years."

So if we are to believe Michael Holley, Andrew Callahan, and PatsPulpit, many of the disastrous recent picks by the Patriots happened when Belichick/McDaniels overruled the scouts. One of the changes last year may have have been putting more weight on the scouting evaluations and less on BB/McD. Maybe Kraft intervened or maybe there was a palace revolt. I did hear a rumor that a scout quit after the Harry pick. We will probably never know what really happened.