Garoppolo Trade Talks to Heat Up This Week

[patfanken]

Specualtion at its very best. The Pats could get "everything" for JG or nothing. I think I know what the teams who need JG, SHOULD do, but whether they do it, is completely unknown. But the real reason I posted is to contend that NOTHING is gong to be done about a trade will happen until just before the draft or in fact during the actual draft.

That will give all the teams another 2 months to set their boards and evaluate exactly what they hope to accomplish this off season. It will also give them 2 months sign most of their FA's. So a lot still could happen and no one really benefits by acting now.

BTW- another strategy would be to wait until AFTER the draft to make your move. Selling giving a #1 pick and others to your fan base would be much easier for at team if its one that doesn't happen for another year. If the package is good enough, I'm sure BB wouldn't mind waiting. Patience is one of his greatest assets.

Besides the Pats already have 8 picks this year (so far), and after adding to a solid roster in FA, won't likely have a lot of immediate needs. That being said, it would suck for us who like to follow the draft. Picking last in the draft kind of sucks.

BTW- I've noticed in a lot of threads the tendency to casually toss around rounds of picks without understanding where the Pats will be picking. So for example taking a 2nd rounder say at 35, is a lot different than a 3rd round comp pick at 100+. Some people think, "well its only a round difference" but because of the Pats usual draft position i5s a lot more than that. Lets not lose track of that.

Still my best bet for JG is to the Bears for #35 and a 5th this year, plus a conditional pick in 2018 that could be a 3rd (if JG sucks or is injured early) to a first (if he starts and gets a LT contract signed)

 

[Ring 6]

RG3 was a #2 pick. Last year Carson Wentz was drafted at #2 and got a 4 year 26.67m contract, fully guaranteed.

JG costs less than $1m next year. Sure if he works out you probably have to pay him ~$20m/yr, but you have an essentially free year to test drive him.

If he does work out you are paying around slightly more thantwice as much as for #2 pick.

So you really don't save as much as you might think going with a rookie. And especially given the state of this years QB draft crop, JG is almost certainly going to outperform a rookie for at least the first year of his contract. And so the overall value of JG, even accounting for his higher price, is likely to be higher over the next 4 years.

#1 its 3 times as much.
#2 no team is giving up the #2 pick in the draft for a guy they want to wait and see before they give him a contract. Plus if he has a good year, you have no rights to him, and he can walk, or you have to tag him which would cost as much as the #2 picks 4 year contract. If Jimmy G is traded there is an extension already agreed upon.

 

[mike_usagisan]

Makes sense for the Bears to trade for him now. Before free agency. Only counts 1.1m towards your 2017 cap and you can still hit free agency. I love the idiots on ESPN and NFL Network talking about how much money he costs the team acquiring him. He makes less than what the pick they give up will cost them. You can sign him to an extension during the season, or tag him after the year.

The tag doesn't really work that way anymore, as the Redskins are finding out with Cousins. If the Bears trade for JG and let him play, what's the incentive for JG to sign an extension? If they tag him, that's where the negotiations start on salary. If a team things JG is a franchise quarterback, better to commit to it early and get him at a franchise QB salary you can live with.

 

[nabwong]

Seems like the Bears really want him, but I think Cleveland does too. All it takes is two teams to start a bidding war.

Just saw a new eBay handle created today: ViiRings.

 

[Ring 6]

Specualtion at its very best. The Pats could get "everything" for JG or nothing. I think I know what the teams who need JG, SHOULD do, but whether they do it, is completely unknown. But the real reason I posted is to contend that NOTHING is gong to be done about a trade will happen until just before the draft or in fact during the actual draft.

That will give all the teams another 2 months to set their boards and evaluate exactly what they hope to accomplish this off season. It will also give them 2 months sign most of their FA's. So a lot still could happen and no one really benefits by acting now.

BTW- another strategy would be to wait until AFTER the draft to make your move. Selling giving a #1 pick and others to your fan base would be much easier for at team if its one that doesn't happen for another year. If the package is good enough, I'm sure BB wouldn't mind waiting. Patience is one of his greatest assets.

Besides the Pats already have 8 picks this year (so far), and after adding to a solid roster in FA, won't likely have a lot of immediate needs. That being said, it would suck for us who like to follow the draft. Picking last in the draft kind of sucks.

BTW- I've noticed in a lot of threads the tendency to casually toss around rounds of picks without understanding where the Pats will be picking. So for example taking a 2nd rounder say at 35, is a lot different than a 3rd round comp pick at 100+. Some people think, "well its only a round difference" but because of the Pats usual draft position i5s a lot more than that. Lets not lose track of that.

Still my best bet for JG is to the Bears for #35 and a 5th this year, plus a conditional pick in 2018 that could be a 3rd (if JG sucks or is injured early) to a first (if he starts and gets a LT contract signed)

Good, realistic post.

One thing I disagree on, is not needing players. BB consistently (except 2007) keeps a high number of rookies, and as of today, we have 52 players under contract, which includes Vollmer and Jimmy G, so that's 50. Of those 50, the following are longshot or toss ups to make the roster
Lucien, Bates, Farris, Lengel, Hamilton, Gaffney, Foster, Douglas, Barker, Kilgo, Houlser,Jackson. So that is down to 38 guys who are not even all locks, but "likelys".
We have a lot room on the roster, first to replace a number of starters who are FAs, then to fill in depth, and then to upgrade, and add competition.

 

[Nehalem]

#1 its 3 times as much.
#2 no team is giving up the #2 pick in the draft for a guy they want to wait and see before they give him a contract. Plus if he has a good year, you have no rights to him, and he can walk, or you have to tag him which would cost as much as the #2 picks 4 year contract. If Jimmy G is traded there is an extension already agreed upon.

Its not 3 times as much, because the team will get JG cheap for year 1, and then at ~20m for the next 3 years. So basically $61m. Whereas the #2 pick will get something like $27m. Three times $27m is $81m, way more than 61m.

And it could be considered a smarty play to let JG play out his rookie deal. If he flames out you don't get yourself Osweilered, and if he plays well he isn't likely to want to leave anyway.

Or alternatively you could offer JG a slightly below market price for guaranteed money. Figuring that if JG sucks you are out of a job anyway

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Specualtion at its very best. The Pats could get "everything" for JG or nothing. I think I know what the teams who need JG, SHOULD do, but whether they do it, is completely unknown. But the real reason I posted is to contend that NOTHING is gong to be done about a trade will happen until just before the draft or in fact during the actual draft.

That will give all the teams another 2 months to set their boards and evaluate exactly what they hope to accomplish this off season. It will also give them 2 months sign most of their FA's. So a lot still could happen and no one really benefits by acting now.

BTW- another strategy would be to wait until AFTER the draft to make your move. Selling giving a #1 pick and others to your fan base would be much easier for at team if its one that doesn't happen for another year. If the package is good enough, I'm sure BB wouldn't mind waiting. Patience is one of his greatest assets.

Besides the Pats already have 8 picks this year (so far), and after adding to a solid roster in FA, won't likely have a lot of immediate needs. That being said, it would suck for us who like to follow the draft. Picking last in the draft kind of sucks.

BTW- I've noticed in a lot of threads the tendency to casually toss around rounds of picks without understanding where the Pats will be picking. So for example taking a 2nd rounder say at 35, is a lot different than a 3rd round comp pick at 100+. Some people think, "well its only a round difference" but because of the Pats usual draft position i5s a lot more than that. Lets not lose track of that.

Still my best bet for JG is to the Bears for #35 and a 5th this year, plus a conditional pick in 2018 that could be a 3rd (if JG sucks or is injured early) to a first (if he starts and gets a LT contract signed)

I rather keep jimmy if that happens. That's a steal for the bears. I want number 3 and a 3rd rounder. A guy like solomon thomas would be nice.

 

[Ring 6]

The tag doesn't really work that way anymore, as the Redskins are finding out with Cousins. If the Bears trade for JG and let him play, what's the incentive for JG to sign an extension? If they tag him, that's where the negotiations start on salary. If a team things JG is a franchise quarterback, better to commit to it early and get him at a franchise QB salary you can live with.

There are nightmare scenarios in trading for Jimmy G, especially from the 'he is cheap the first year, so lets see if he is any good' approach.

1) Lets say you don't extend him and he sucks. You gave up a boatload of picks.
2) Lets say you don't extend him and he is pretty good. He has you over a barrel, and you would have to tag him to keep him, so he gets more in 2018 than your pick would have gotten in an entire contract.
3) Lets say you don't extend him and he is great. Every QB needy team will go after him, and they will pay huge money and not have given up a pick.

So, under each case you kind of have to extend him day 1. Then if he does not play well, or even if he is OK but your team sucks you are saddled with the long term deal, and don't have the picks you gave up to improve the rest of the team, which probably already sucks anyway, given the list of teams.

 

[Ring 6]

I rather keep jimmy if that happens. That's a steal for the bears. I want number 3 and a 3rd rounder. A guy like solomon thomas would be nice.

But then that's a loss for the Patriots because they pass up what they could get for the player, and end up getting nothing while he sits on the bench for a year.
You have to get something out of an asset, not just let it sit and have its value expire.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

What our team need's right now badly's a stud on the DL next to brown and valentine. I miss those early 2000s defenses.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

But then that's a loss for the Patriots because they pass up what they could get for the player, and end up getting nothing while he sits on the bench for a year.
You have to get something out of an asset, not just let it sit and have its value expire.

Yes but i rather have jimmy take over for brady. This team still has 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. I am not giving this guy up without getting a first rounder.

 

[Ring 6]

Its not 3 times as much, because the team will get JG cheap for year 1, and then at ~20m for the next 3 years. So basically $61m. Whereas the #2 pick will get something like $27m. Three times $27m is $81m, way more than 61m.

And it could be considered a smarty play to let JG play out his rookie deal. If he flames out you don't get yourself Osweilered, and if he plays well he isn't likely to want to leave anyway.

Or alternatively you could offer JG a slightly below market price for guaranteed money. Figuring that if JG sucks you are out of a job anyway

20 mill is 3 times the avg salary on Wentz contract.

But you are missing a few things here.
First the cap WAS 20 mill last year. By NEXT year it will probably be 25 mill. Then you have to give him a raise of 20% to keep him capped.
So he would make 1.1, 25, 30,36 or 92.1 mill in 4 years, which is close to 4 times what you would pay the #2 pick.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes but i rather have jimmy take over for brady. This team still has 4 picks in the first 3 rounds. I am not giving this guy up without getting a first rounder.

You can't unless you cut Brady after this year.

 

[Ring 6]

What our team need's right now badly's a stud on the DL next to brown and valentine. I miss those early 2000s defenses.

I loved the 2016 defense.

 

[JMC00]

If Cleveland offers only the #12 pick you take it.

So much more value in getting an extra first round pick that you control for 5 years than keeping Garoppolo as a backup for 1 more year and then watching him leave and getting probably a 3rd round comp in '19.

I know some people on here are ready to ditch Brady next year because Garoppolo looked good in 6 quarters (people seem to forget he also got hurt and was forced to miss a game in only his 2nd start) sorry but Brady is allowed to stay with NE as long as he wants. Don't give me "that's not how Belichick works" line. Brady bought himself that luxury.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

You can't unless you cut Brady after this year.

I could care less. What if brady win's another ring and rides into the sunset? I can see that. I am not giving up jimmy for peanuts when this QB class's iffy this year.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I loved the 2016 defense.

It was good but the early 2000s defense where really good. You would be saying that had we not come back? Need more pass rushers next to flowers.

 

[Ring 6]

I could care less. What if brady win's another ring and rides into the sunset? I can see that. I am not giving up jimmy for peanuts when this QB class's iffy this year.

Then you will give him up for nothing if you keep him. He is either gone this off season or next, and this offseason you get something. Next offseason you get nothing.

Brady has indicate no intention whatsoever to 'ride into the sunset' and actually has said the opposite.

 

[Ring 6]

It was good but the early 2000s defense where really good. You would be saying that had we not come back? Need more pass rushers next to flowers.

I said it all season long.
You couldn't play the early 2000s defense with these rules.

 

[Marqui]

If Cleveland offers only the #12 pick you take it.

So much more value in getting an extra first round pick that you control for 5 years than keeping Garoppolo as a backup for 1 more year and then watching him leave and getting probably a 3rd round comp in '19.

I know some people on here are ready to ditch Brady next year because Garoppolo looked good in 6 quarters (people seem to forget he also got hurt and was forced to miss a game in only his 2nd start) sorry but Brady is allowed to stay with NE as long as he wants. Don't give me "that's not how Belichick works" line. Brady bought himself that luxury.

I wouldn't just take the 12 though immediately because if CLE/CHI/SF all get in a massive bidding war for him the top 3 picks could be in play.