Garoppolo Trade Talks to Heat Up This Week

[patfanken]

#1 its 3 times as much.
#2 no team is giving up the #2 pick in the draft for a guy they want to wait and see before they give him a contract. Plus if he has a good year, you have no rights to him, and he can walk, or you have to tag him which would cost as much as the #2 picks 4 year contract. If Jimmy G is traded there is an extension already agreed upon.

Well not exactly, if not LT contract can be reached, you can also franchise him, and still get 2 years at less than what starters get. If JG is good enough, it would even make financial sense to franchizing him twice, though I doubt that would happen. JG is a company guy. He'll likely love the teams he's on an the guys and want to stay if the LT contract is reasonable, yet not top dollar.

 

[The Gr8est]

There are nightmare scenarios in trading for Jimmy G, especially from the 'he is cheap the first year, so lets see if he is any good' approach.

1) Lets say you don't extend him and he sucks. You gave up a boatload of picks.
2) Lets say you don't extend him and he is pretty good. He has you over a barrel, and you would have to tag him to keep him, so he gets more in 2018 than your pick would have gotten in an entire contract.
3) Lets say you don't extend him and he is great. Every QB needy team will go after him, and they will pay huge money and not have given up a pick.

So, under each case you kind of have to extend him day 1. Then if he does not play well, or even if he is OK but your team sucks you are saddled with the long term deal, and don't have the picks you gave up to improve the rest of the team, which probably already sucks anyway, given the list of teams.

Of course, in scenario #3, you just franchise him if necessary. You hope he would feel some loyalty to you and work with you, but that's not a given.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

If Cleveland offers only the #12 pick you take it.

So much more value in getting an extra first round pick that you control for 5 years than keeping Garoppolo as a backup for 1 more year and then watching him leave and getting probably a 3rd round comp in '19.

I know some people on here are ready to ditch Brady next year because Garoppolo looked good in 6 quarters (people seem to forget he also got hurt and was forced to miss a game in only his 2nd start) sorry but Brady is allowed to stay with NE as long as he wants. Don't give me "that's not how Belichick works" line. Brady bought himself that luxury.

Lol. Whose ditching brady? People are concerned about giving this guy up for nothing but a second rounder. I want another pick besides the first.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I said it all season long.
You couldn't play the early 2000s defense with these rules.

The Dline was nasty though and off course they had ty law. A stud on the DL would be nice. We will see. I want them to focus on the defensive side of the ball in the draft. It's deep on the DL and corner.

 

[farn]

I loved the 2016 defense.

I loved 2014. Hell, I love 14-15-16. They go SB Champ book ending a narrow AFC finals loss (much because of injuries). How can we NOT love this D ? 2/3 championships is amazing.

Those early 2000 teams were great to watch on D, but let's keep it real. What this recent group has been doing when everything is slanted towards O is nothing short of remarkable.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I wouldn't just take the 12 though immediately because if CLE/CHI/SF all get in a massive bidding war for him the top 3 picks could be in play.

I want multiple picks. One of these teams will get desperate. 49ers already wanna trade out. Nobody likes these QBs but some
have to take them.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

I loved 2014. Hell, I love 14-15-16. They go SB Champ book ending a narrow AFC finals loss (much because of injuries). How can we NOT love this D ? 2/3 championships is amazing.

Those early 2000 teams were great to watch on D, but let's keep it real. What this recent group has been doing when everything is slanted towards O is nothing short of remarkable.

Well they gave you a heart attack at the same time. When you saw the miracle catch by kearse i was thinking we where cursed lol but butler saved the day. Hope they pay him soon.

 

[Ring 6]

Well not exactly, if not LT contract can be reached, you can also franchise him, and still get 2 years at less than what starters get. If JG is good enough, it would even make financial sense to franchizing him twice, though I doubt that would happen. JG is a company guy. He'll likely love the teams he's on an the guys and want to stay if the LT contract is reasonable, yet not top dollar.

He has to agree to be tagged. Plus by 2018 the QB tag will probably be 25 mill, and he would have to have a 20% increase to be tagged again, so now its 30 mill, possibly the highest paid QB in the NFL, and you still have no real rights to him in the future.
Are Cleveland, Chicago or SF going to be good enough to make sense to pay 30 mill to a QB by 2019?

 

[Ring 6]

Well they gave you a heart attack at the same time. When you saw the miracle catch by kearse i was thinking we where cursed lol but butler saved the day. Hope they pay him soon.

Its football. The early 2000s teams let all 3 SB opponents back in games when we had a lead too.

 

[patfanken]

Good, realistic post.

One thing I disagree on, is not needing players. BB consistently (except 2007) keeps a high number of rookies, and as of today, we have 52 players under contract, which includes Vollmer and Jimmy G, so that's 50. Of those 50, the following are longshot or toss ups to make the roster
Lucien, Bates, Farris, Lengel, Hamilton, Gaffney, Foster, Douglas, Barker, Kilgo, Houlser,Jackson. So that is down to 38 guys who are not even all locks, but "likelys".
We have a lot room on the roster, first to replace a number of starters who are FAs, then to fill in depth, and then to upgrade, and add competition.

Yeah, that was badly worded on my part. BB is always in the market to upgrade the roster, usually in unconvential ways, and NOONE knows the value of quality depth than him. Unlike most teams the Pats will pass on the high end player, to grab TWO "merely" good ones.

The Pats will always have have a strong roster to start with even in a year when we have so many FA. Over the past decade I have often proposed BB go for a few "quality" picks in a draft than a lot of the low picks we get. Usually in the years I did that BB would end up trading down and ADD picks. .

Over the next 2 months, I think we end up resigning most of our important FA's and/or add corresponding FA's from other teams, and end up with a predraft roster that would be competitive even without a draft. With all the names you mentioned we have a number of guys who are likely going to be a lot better than anyone we can get after the 3rd round. So again, I'm hoping BB will use those back end pick to either trade out and up into the future, or use them to trade up in the current draft. I wouldn't hate it we end up with just 4 or 5 guys if those guys are "quality picks".

That being said, given my history of predictions, BB will likely end up adding picks and we wind up with 11 rookies.....and he will end up being right in the long term.

 

[Ring 6]

I want multiple picks. One of these teams will get desperate. 49ers already wanna trade out. Nobody likes these QBs but some
have to take them.

But you are saying you expect that to be offered. Obviously if we get offered a bounty we are taking it,
The discussion is about what if we do not.
YOUR idea of what JG is worth and what a team will offer is irrelevant to making the decision when the offer comes in.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

But you are saying you expect that to be offered. Obviously if we get offered a bounty we are taking it,
The discussion is about what if we do not.
YOUR idea of what JG is worth and what a team will offer is irrelevant to making the decision when the offer comes in.

Like i said i rather keep him if that offer sucks. Let's see who blinks first.

 

[PatriotsPimp136]

Its football. The early 2000s teams let all 3 SB opponents back in games when we had a lead too.

True but i never got the feeling we where losing those games with those defenses. This defense gave up the yards but they made the clutch plays when they had to.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah, that was badly worded on my part. BB is always in the market to upgrade the roster, usually in unconvential ways, and NOONE knows the value of quality depth than him. Unlike most teams the Pats will pass on the high end player, to grab TWO "merely" good ones.

The Pats will always have have a strong roster to start with even in a year when we have so many FA. Over the past decade I have often proposed BB go for a few "quality" picks in a draft than a lot of the low picks we get. Usually in the years I did that BB would end up trading down and ADD picks. .

Over the next 2 months, I think we end up resigning most of our important FA's and/or add corresponding FA's from other teams, and end up with a predraft roster that would be competitive even without a draft. With all the names you mentioned we have a number of guys who are likely going to be a lot better than anyone we can get after the 3rd round. So again, I'm hoping BB will use those back end pick to either trade out and up into the future, or use them to trade up in the current draft. I wouldn't hate it we end up with just 4 or 5 guys if those guys are "quality picks".

That being said, given my history of predictions, BB will likely end up adding picks and we wind up with 11 rookies.....and he will end up being right in the long term.

I think, in general, what you say makes sense, but I think BB is always looking long term and sees late picks and bubble guys from a perspective of what can they become, so he finds a spot if he feels they are worthy.
But this year, more than any in memory, we have a very, very thin roster. Since there is a lot of cap space, we may be adding a bunch of FAs, but as of right now, compared to last year, we are missing a lot:

OL is in tact, which is awesome, but depending on Solders future, now is the time to find his replacement. And we certainly could upgrade depth at every OL spot with draft choices. (I think anything higher than a 5th would have a guaranteed spot, and a 5,6,7 would be competitive for a roster spot)

RB- Blount is a FA, that's 1100 yards missing (white is free next year, as is Lewis)

WR- Edelman and Amendola (if he takes a 5mill paycut) are both FAs in 2018

TE- Need to replace Benentt

DL- Nink is near the end and is FA after this year. Sheard and Long are not under contract. A 4 man rotation is down to 1 plus an aging guy going into likely his last year here.

LB- Hightower is not under contract. VanNoy is in his last year. We never really replaced Collins.

DB- Harmon and Ryan were major contributors that have to be replaced.

We have a long, long way to go to get the 2017 team in the shape the 2016 was, so I am on board for every draft pick we can find.

 

[patfanken]

He has to agree to be tagged. Plus by 2018 the QB tag will probably be 25 mill, and he would have to have a 20% increase to be tagged again, so now its 30 mill, possibly the highest paid QB in the NFL, and you still have no real rights to him in the future.
Are Cleveland, Chicago or SF going to be good enough to make sense to pay 30 mill to a QB by 2019?

Don't disagree, but IF JG is a good enough QB to be franchised twice, the question becomes, isn't 3 years of good QB play enough to be worth whatever picks the team gave us to get him?

I'm not sure, btw, I'm just posing the question. I THINK it would be, given how poor the QB play is these days. And I still believe that JG is the kind of guy who take a long term deal with the team that showed they really wanted him enough to expend a lot of draft capital to get him. Especially given that ANY deal he gets is going to be over 20MM/yr. God just writing that makes realize just how crazy the money has gotten.

Back in the day, had I made the NFL my contract would have been around $15,000. And back then that would have been HUGE, since that was TWICE what I was making teaching school.

 

[patfanken]

I think, in general, what you say makes sense, but I think BB is always looking long term and sees late picks and bubble guys from a perspective of what can they become, so he finds a spot if he feels they are worthy.
But this year, more than any in memory, we have a very, very thin roster. Since there is a lot of cap space, we may be adding a bunch of FAs, but as of right now, compared to last year, we are missing a lot:

OL is in tact, which is awesome, but depending on Solders future, now is the time to find his replacement. And we certainly could upgrade depth at every OL spot with draft choices. (I think anything higher than a 5th would have a guaranteed spot, and a 5,6,7 would be competitive for a roster spot)

RB- Blount is a FA, that's 1100 yards missing (white is free next year, as is Lewis)

WR- Edelman and Amendola (if he takes a 5mill paycut) are both FAs in 2018

TE- Need to replace Benentt

DL- Nink is near the end and is FA after this year. Sheard and Long are not under contract. A 4 man rotation is down to 1 plus an aging guy going into likely his last year here.

LB- Hightower is not under contract. VanNoy is in his last year. We never really replaced Collins.

DB- Harmon and Ryan were major contributors that have to be replaced.

We have a long, long way to go to get the 2017 team in the shape the 2016 was, so I am on board for every draft pick we can find.

Yeah, but a LOT of these questions you pose are going to be answered, one way or the other, by the end of April. So before the draft comes, I believe most of these roster holes will be filled it not to yourfull satisfaction, but to a comfort level you can deal with.

$65MM (so far) in cap space will solve a lot of current ills before we get to the draft, and besides, we both know that BB does a lot of his best work well AFTER the initial rush of FA and the draft have passed. No one churns a roster more than BB over the course of a season. It's a pattern that has cost Kraft a lot of ring money when the season ends well.

 

[Ring 6]

True but i never got the feeling we where losing those games with those defenses. This defense gave up the yards but they made the clutch plays when they had to.

That's an old wives tale. This defense ended up 8th in yards, and high in most defensive categories.
What happened is people trashed the defense, so their argument to the defense not allowing points was, buuuuuuut yards.
This was not a bend don't break defense. This was an excellent defense that played conservatively in the middle of the field to not allow big plays and got more aggressive inside the 30.
The average QB in the NFL completes something like 23 passes a game in todays NFL, so of course offenses make plays, and of course they make more than they could 15 years ago, because the rules have changed.
Adjusting for era (and the strengths and weaknesses that go with it) this defense is every bit as good.

FYI, in the SB in 2001 the Patriots had a 2 TD lead going into the 4th quarter and blew it, including getting the ball with 3:44 left up 7 going 3 and out and allowing a 1 1/2 minute game tying TD drive.
In the SB in 2003, they allowed 3 TDs, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, to blow a 21-10 lead and get tied at 29. (Luckily Carolina went for 2 twice while they were scoring TDs on 3 consecutive drives)

Thankfully we had the ball last, but those 2 defenses did more to lose the game that 2016 did.

 

[Ring 6]

Don't disagree, but IF JG is a good enough QB to be franchised twice, the question becomes, isn't 3 years of good QB play enough to be worth whatever picks the team gave us to get him?

Depends on where your franchise is. Look at Kirk Cousins. Was he worth it? Everyone says he played well enough to deserve it but that team isn't ready to win, and he will be gone before they are. Would the Browns have won anything if got a QB 3 years ago? Look at the top QBs in their 2nd-3rd year. Which was worth their 3 years if they walk tomorrow?

I'm not sure, btw, I'm just posing the question. I THINK it would be, given how poor the QB play is these days. And I still believe that JG is the kind of guy who take a long term deal with the team that showed they really wanted him enough to expend a lot of draft capital to get him. Especially given that ANY deal he gets is going to be over 20MM/yr. God just writing that makes realize just how crazy the money has gotten.

But neither of us has any idea whatsoever what kind of guy Jimmy G is.

Back in the day, had I made the NFL my contract would have been around $15,000. And back then that would have been HUGE, since that was TWICE what I was making teaching school.

Its all relative. If that was 1960, and inflation has average 5%, $15,000 then is worth about $250,000 today, granted not $20 mill, but still nice money.

 

[The Gr8est]

That's an old wives tale. This defense ended up 8th in yards, and high in most defensive categories.
What happened is people trashed the defense, so their argument to the defense not allowing points was, buuuuuuut yards.
This was not a bend don't break defense. This was an excellent defense that played conservatively in the middle of the field to not allow big plays and got more aggressive inside the 30.
The average QB in the NFL completes something like 23 passes a game in todays NFL, so of course offenses make plays, and of course they make more than they could 15 years ago, because the rules have changed.
Adjusting for era (and the strengths and weaknesses that go with it) this defense is every bit as good.

FYI, in the SB in 2001 the Patriots had a 2 TD lead going into the 4th quarter and blew it, including getting the ball with 3:44 left up 7 going 3 and out and allowing a 1 1/2 minute game tying TD drive.
In the SB in 2003, they allowed 3 TDs, IN THE 4TH QUARTER, to blow a 21-10 lead and get tied at 29. (Luckily Carolina went for 2 twice while they were scoring TDs on 3 consecutive drives)

Thankfully we had the ball last, but those 2 defenses did more to lose the game that 2016 did.

To be fair, in 2003 vs Carolina, the Pats lost both starting safeties, Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison, so much of the 4th quarter had special teamer playing safety and that allowed Carolina some easy scores.

 

[Ring 6]

To be fair, in 2003 vs Carolina, the Pats lost both starting safeties, Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison, so much of the 4th quarter had special teamer playing safety and thst allowed Carolina some easy scores.

Sure, but it was almost an historic meltdown, not far from this year. Had we not gotten the game winning FG and it went to overtime, it wouldn't have been far off, on the defensive end, because we also added a TD and 2 in the 4th quarter.
I think saying the 2016 defense wasn't a good as the early 2000s because you fear they could do something, when those defenses pretty much actually did it, is wrong.