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Saturday night marked a frustrating end to New England's season, which now sets up some big questions heading into the offseason.

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Free Agents - Defense Here Is The Problem.

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by mgteich, Jan 12, 2020.

  1. GorBelSer

    GorBelSer On the Game Day Roster

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    They need to cut/not re-sign significant number of guys on defense in order to stash the cash for offense... or have a very good draft on the offensive side, with several immediate contributors emerging. Really hard to tell which one has the better odds...
     
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  2. ohiopatsfan

    ohiopatsfan On the Game Day Roster

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    D line was undermanned early when both Bennett and Pennell flamed out. Need a fatty in the middle to supplant/replace Shelton.
     
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  3. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If Devin and Chung come back, we will have one of the best secondaries in the nFL.

     
  4. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yes, we won the division, and had a 12-4 record, because of the great defense.

    You conclude that, therefore, no significant money needs to be spent on defense.

    ???

    I agree that this would be true if the following players come back for vet minimum compensation: Shelton, Butler, Calhoun, Collins, Van Noy, Roberts and McCourty.
    These players will take a considerable amount of cap money to sign or replace.

     
  5. p8ryts

    p8ryts 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Don't know if Brooks is okay but he had some good games and times he got beat was accurate pass good catch. I see JJ Williams either taking a Chung or McCourty role. Jonathan Jones a possibility to move back.

    I would like Shelton back, Butler is restricted, Would like Van Noy but Collins is still inconsistent. Disappointed in Calhoun, injured didn't make many plays. Don't know what Cowart potential is. I would keep High definitely, a restructure or extension would be good.

    Slater, Ebner, Gost take less? I think we draft a kicker.
     
  6. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If you start by considering Collins gone (report during the year was that he was going to be chasing the dollars), the defense money actually shouldn't be that big an expenditure.

    • Van Noy is where the money will have to go, if you're trying to keep things in place
    • McCourty's not coming back at $9m + roster bonuses. He'd be playing for less
    • Butler's an RFA
    • Slater's not going to command more than the sort of money he got in the past couple of years
    • Ebner's not going to command more than the sort of money he's gotten in recent years
    • Roberts is a good depth guy, but the Patriots are not likely to give him starter level LB money
    • Calhoun's a non-entity. He's not getting paid, either here or elsewhere. He should be a minimum/minimum plus kind of signing
    • I'm a bit worried about Shelton. I thought he played better than the previous year, but I didn't see anything in his game that made me think he's worth more than the kind of money he got this past year. And I'm concerned that someone is going to overpay the guy.

    So, unless I'm misreading the market (certainly not an impossibility), these re-signings shouldn't be particularly problematic.


    For me, the biggest issue for the defense is not FA retention. It's finding the needed additions/improvements. Even if the team keeps Shelton, this team needs run stuffing tank on the DL. Even if they bring back both Van Noy and Roberts, the team needs to bring in a quality cover LB and a Collins replacement (if Collins shocks the hell out me by taking Patriots money to return next year, it's just the cover LB that's a need). And, even if Chung and Devin McCourty are both back, this team should look to bring in another quality safety. And, of course, the team should always be looking to see if they can find an edge rusher.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 13, 2020
  7. skinnydog

    skinnydog Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    I'm really hoping that DMac is back. He may be somewhat overpaid, but he is the glue for the secondary. I don't see Harmon as a replacement for him at all.
     
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  8. farn

    farn Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Not saying it’s optimal. But let’s say that on a given play, next Fall, there are five DBs out there in the NE secondary. And that they are Gilmore, JC, J Jones, JoeJuan, and Harmon. I say that is a very solid group with skill, experience, and flexibility. Many teams in the League would kill for that 5.
     
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  9. skinnydog

    skinnydog Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    This team can take a step back on defense and as long as the offense significantly improves, they can make a Super Bowl run. And in order to improve on offense they will likely have to lose a player or two on defense.
     
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  10. patriot1136

    patriot1136 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    Is it possible that Chung and J-Mac retire? I thought there was a rumor of that somewhere.
    Also, what do we think about Cowart? Is he healthy? He had a head injury and i don't know if he was ever back to normal.
     
  11. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    NOT THAT BIG AN EXPENDITURE?
    OK, let's ignore Calhoun and Ebner, and presume that Chung is back.

    What is the cost to sign or replace the following 7 players?
    D McCourty
    Van Noy
    Collins
    Roberts
    Butler (1st round RFA compensation is $4.66M; 2nd round is $3.3M)
    Slater (why should a probowler take a pay cut?)
    Shelton


     
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm not sure you actually read my post, given your response, but let's look at the individuals:

    • Collins: likely gone for the money
    • Van Noy: THE expenditure to keep, if you want to bring him back. The market will decide the numbers
    • McCourty, 2019: $9m base, $500k in game roster bonus, cap hit $13.4m. Why would you expect him to get that to return, at age 35?
    • Slater: 2019: $2.8m base, $400k in game roster bonus, cap hit $5.1m. Why would you think he'd get much more than that?
    • Ebner: $3.2m base, $600m in game roster bonus, cap hit $4.9m. Why would you expect him to get much more than that?
    • Butler: an RFA, so his number is locked in to one of two slots, unless the team wants to give him a longer term deal.
    • Roberts is a good depth guy, but the Patriots are not likely to give him starter level LB money. Last year, he made a little over #2m. Do you think they're going to decide to pay him starting LB money in 2020?
    • Shelton: To repeat my earlier post, I'm a bit worried about Shelton. I thought he played better than the previous year, but I didn't see anything in his game that made me think he's worth more than the kind of money he got this past year. And I'm concerned that someone is going to overpay the guy.
     
  13. kennyb

    kennyb In the Starting Line-Up

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    Both mccourtys, hightower, everyone on defense who is a fa needs to go. The idea of spending 3m on a special teams only player? That's nuts.

    I would keep van noy and or collins if they're cheap.
     
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  14. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    [​IMG]
     
  15. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Sure, we all would like to keep Collins and Van Noy if they are cheap.

    They won't be.

     
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  16. GorBelSer

    GorBelSer On the Game Day Roster

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    This team needs to nail the draft, now more than ever. They need to find solid cheap guys if they are planning to be a contender next year. Redshirting wont get them anywhere because they will lose a lot of guys from this year`s roster and wont have enough money to find valid replacements in FA pool.
     
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  17. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was a reacting to this stamens that you made
    "the defense money actually shouldn't be that big an expenditure."


    I'm not arguing with you. I'm asking what do you think that it will cost to keep the defensive players that you think are likely to stay. I make no comparisons to 2019 for individual players. I'm interested in how much of new cap room will be taken up by our free agents or their replacements. I agree that Collins is gone. I guess that for this exercise, we can presume that Collins is replaced by Winovich or a draftee. Below I have a WAG of $34M. The problem with just saying that we will lose Van Noy or McCourty is that it will still cost money to replace them. I suspect that we would spend $4M on a replacement.

    4 Shelton
    4 Butler
    7 Van Noy
    4 Roberts
    7 McCourty
    4 Slater
    4 Ebner

    I'm just getting what we are likely to spend on re-signing or replacing our defensive and ST free agents.
     
  18. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ok, but I still don't see your issue here. I'm not going to be able to give you exact numbers, at this time. Nobody is going to be able to give you exact numbers, at this time.
    • If you're spending $4m on a McCourty replacement (your number), you're saving more than $5m compared to last year.
    • If you're spending $4m on a Van Noy replacement (your number), you're saving a couple of hundred thousands compared to last year.
    • If Slater and Ebner are getting about the same as last year, there's no significant change in outlay there.

    That leaves Butler (RFA slot numbers, as already discussed), Roberts (Not likely to reach starting LB money in N.E., IMO, as mentioned), and Shelton (the problem/issue player, as I discussed).

    That's not a big expenditure.


    And, finally, that's actual money numbers, not cap. Unlike, for example, McCourty's last year ($9m base, $500k roster, $13.4m cap), the numbers I've been talking about are clean generalities. The team isn't likely to need to hand out big bonus dollars to anyone on the list, other than Van Noy. So cap can be manipulated, as needed, if the team wants to do some pushing into future years, without too much impact.
     
  19. FCB02062

    FCB02062 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    The offense is terrible. The defense showed it couldn't make a stop it's last two games. I would go young on D and go all in on offense. I should say I say this is incumbent on Brady returning; if not they'll need to go Defense. We all should want a happy Brady...In crunch time i would rather put the game on Brady with better skill players around him than in the defense hands w the same guys coming back...
     
  20. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We are having two different discussions. I'll enter yours. I agree that the expenditure on Defense in 2020 won't be significant;y different than 2019.

    You seem interested in "actual money" numbers. I am much more interested in budgeting and predicting what 2020 cap will be spent on our free agents. My WAG numbers are additions to the 2020 cap. Or to put in another way, how much of the $49.5M needs to be spent on defence.
     

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