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FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2016
They see Garoppolo as one of the five best passing QBs of the season so far on both of their key metrics, DYAR (which is a volume-based stat) and DVOA (which is adjusted for the number of plays). In particular, they have him performing about 34% better than a typical QB would given the down, distance, and locations of his plays.
On the flip side, they have Brissett in the bottom third of QBs by DYAR, and in the bottom five by DVOA; on the latter, he's at –41%. They do rate Brissett a better runner than Garoppolo, though, at +34% vs. +14%.
All of that said, there is one major difference between the two—a stat called ALEX, which stands for Air Less EXpected. It's a measure of how far a QB throws a ball on third down (only) relative to the yardage needed for a new set of downs. For Garoppolo, it's +2.9—in other words, his average third-down pass went about three yards beyond the sticks. For Brissett, though, it's –7.3—in other words, Brissett's average third-down pass was over seven yards short of the sticks.
They see Garoppolo as one of the five best passing QBs of the season so far on both of their key metrics, DYAR (which is a volume-based stat) and DVOA (which is adjusted for the number of plays). In particular, they have him performing about 34% better than a typical QB would given the down, distance, and locations of his plays.
On the flip side, they have Brissett in the bottom third of QBs by DYAR, and in the bottom five by DVOA; on the latter, he's at –41%. They do rate Brissett a better runner than Garoppolo, though, at +34% vs. +14%.
All of that said, there is one major difference between the two—a stat called ALEX, which stands for Air Less EXpected. It's a measure of how far a QB throws a ball on third down (only) relative to the yardage needed for a new set of downs. For Garoppolo, it's +2.9—in other words, his average third-down pass went about three yards beyond the sticks. For Brissett, though, it's –7.3—in other words, Brissett's average third-down pass was over seven yards short of the sticks.