Football Outsiders' take on Garoppolo and Brissett

[ctpatsfan77]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2016

They see Garoppolo as one of the five best passing QBs of the season so far on both of their key metrics, DYAR (which is a volume-based stat) and DVOA (which is adjusted for the number of plays). In particular, they have him performing about 34% better than a typical QB would given the down, distance, and locations of his plays.

On the flip side, they have Brissett in the bottom third of QBs by DYAR, and in the bottom five by DVOA; on the latter, he's at –41%. They do rate Brissett a better runner than Garoppolo, though, at +34% vs. +14%.

All of that said, there is one major difference between the two—a stat called ALEX, which stands for Air Less EXpected. It's a measure of how far a QB throws a ball on third down (only) relative to the yardage needed for a new set of downs. For Garoppolo, it's +2.9—in other words, his average third-down pass went about three yards beyond the sticks. For Brissett, though, it's –7.3—in other words, Brissett's average third-down pass was over seven yards short of the sticks.

 

[strngplyr]

We definitely need to see more volume of Jimmy plays, but noone can deny that what we've seen would make him a far better option for many rosters in the NFL.

And all the more reason to not let him join one of those rosters, can't strengthen any opponent while weakening ourselves.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

BTW, unsurprisingly their ALEX stat is named for (of course!) Alex Smith.

 

[supafly]

Thank you for sharing this.

While I certainly think there's a good chance of winning tonight, the reality is that it will be quite a challenge for Brissett in terms of actually dropping back and chucking the ball.

As we know it's a team game, so we'll be able to fall back a bit on the defense, running game (hopefully), and overall energy of the crowd, etc. That said, the fact that Brissett will have his work cut out for him when dropping back cannot be overlooked. I also wouldn't base too much off of this system due to the fact that Brissett only played 2.5 quarters in a very conservative gameplan which was predicated on protecting a lead.

 

[JMC00]

Football Outsiders is a bunch of hardos huh? Guy came in and threw 9 passes to see out the game.

 

[JMC00]

the reality is that it will be quite a challenge for Brissett in terms of actually dropping back and chucking the ball.

Not if he gets adequate pass blocking and guys are getting open.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Football Outsiders is a bunch of hardos huh? Guy came in and threw 9 passes to see out the game.

Yeah, if they had taken his 8/8 preseason game, he might be graded as the best QB in NFL history. How can anyone take this seriously when they have a grade on a guy playing with a four TD lead in a grind-down the clock gameplan with only 8 pass attempts. Not airing it out on third and long? Gee, do ya think?

Common sense, folks. We know very little about Brissett. Because of his inexperience, expect him to struggle, but you can give a good eye roll to these advanced stats. This would be like analyzing and grading a baseball hitter based on 3 pitches. Inconclusive.

 

[supafly]

Not if he gets adequate pass blocking and guys are getting open.

God bless the coaching staff if they can get a rookie coming out of his first training camp up to speed enough in 72 hrs to go out and have a successful day throwing the ball.

I hear what you're saying about overthinking things and that it still comes down to basic execution, but they'll have to get awfully creative in my opinion. Luckily, it shouldn't have to fall on his shoulders completely since it's a team game. Let's hope our defense and running game show up nicely.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah, if they had taken his 8/8 preseason game, he might be graded as the best QB in NFL history. How can anyone take this seriously when they have a grade on a guy playing with a four TD lead in a grind-down the clock gameplan with only 8 pass attempts. Not airing it out on third and long? Gee, do ya think?

Common sense, folks. We know very little about Brissett. Because of his inexperience, expect him to struggle, but you can give a good eye roll to these advanced stats. This would be like analyzing and grading a baseball hitter based on 3 pitches. Inconclusive.

FWIW. . . .

Every single play run in the NFL gets a “success value” based on this system, and then that number gets compared to the average success values of plays in similar situations for all players, adjusted for a number of variables. These include down and distance, field location, time remaining in game, and the team’s lead or deficit in the game score. Teams are always compared to the overall offensive average, as the team made its own choice whether to pass or rush. When it comes to individual players, however, rushing plays are compared to other rushing plays, passing plays to other passing plays, tight ends to tight ends, wideouts to wideouts, and so on.

IOW, what they're saying is, all other things being equal, they'd still expect an average QB to do better than Brissett did on those nine passes.

 

[Jercules]

Two bad Edelman drops, a lotta screens, some quick dump offs to White, and two very athletic runs... give him a gameplan tailored to his strengths and he'll be fine.

I can see why they're still outsiders.

 

[luuked]

FWIW. . . .



IOW, what they're saying is, all other things being equal, they'd still expect an average QB to do better than Brissett did on those nine passes.

So they are also normalizing to take into accouny only rookies who come on the field for the first time in the middle of a game with a 3 score lead? They better have a lot of historical data that fits that scenario. Also lets throw away all the data that is older than lets say 10 years because the rule changes have been pretty extensive.

I appreciate that they are trying to be somewhat representative but ultimately they fall victim to the "i want it now" culture that we have instead of waiting a week and doing a more nuanced comparison. But you cant have that.. because clicks..

 

[doesntmatter1]

It is dumb for them to even try to evaluate JB's ability from that conservative game plan etc. JB is definitely not on Jimmy's level but he has some intriguing traits. He is calm under pressure, something you don't see from mobile quarterbacks, and he seems to be generally safe with his throws. In a weird way, JB reminds me more of Brady than any quarterback we have had.

I wonder if we will use his ability to run or will we fear the risk of injury considering he is our last qb.

 

[PittPatriot]

God bless the coaching staff if they can get a rookie coming out of his first training camp up to speed enough in 72 hrs to go out and have a successful day throwing the ball.

I hear what you're saying about overthinking things and that it still comes down to basic execution, but they'll have to get awfully creative in my opinion. Luckily, it shouldn't have to fall on his shoulders completely since it's a team game. Let's hope our defense and running game show up nicely.

Agreed.
I'm also wishing Brissett had started and played (like all of) more in that 4th preseason game.

 

[Pats2000]

I say screw it, run JB and if he gets hurt, we can line up a different person in the backfield every play and run the wildcat all game lol

 

[ChessToCheckers]

This is a BIG redemption game for the Texans which should add pressure to an already hostile environment for them. JJ and Clowney have been invisible in prior meetings. Imagine if they can't beat a third-string QB?

That said, a JB-led Patriots win would NOT shock me. I like the kid and would be thrilled to see him light these guys up. Should be a fun game tonight!

 

[Sicilian]

Brisset came in unexpectedly to a 24 point lead for his first ever NFL action, and FO thinks it's relevant that he wasn't throwing far down the field?

 

[BelichickFan]

IOW, what they're saying is, all other things being equal, they'd still expect an average QB to do better than Brissett did on those nine passes.

As expected, my hope is that JB is respectable, I don't expect him to be an average NFL QB.

I actually don't care how they rank him, after this game and one more he'll be the #3 QB, barring injury, and we'll revisit him next year. JG's high ranking is much more important whether for trade value or if T12 gets hurt.

 

[oldrover]

Football Outsiders is a bunch of hardos huh? Guy came in and threw 9 passes to see out the game.

https://imgflip.com/memegenerator

 

[chasa]

a third stringer who got next to no snaps with the first string offense, and came into a game mid way through the second quarter of at teh time a blow out doesn't rank in the top of the QB's chart list?

Color me surprised.

Lets wait til jacoby plays a whole game with a gameplan specifically tailored to his skill set, before we start comparing the two youngsters.

 

[Ring 6]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2016

They see Garoppolo as one of the five best passing QBs of the season so far on both of their key metrics, DYAR (which is a volume-based stat) and DVOA (which is adjusted for the number of plays). In particular, they have him performing about 34% better than a typical QB would given the down, distance, and locations of his plays.

On the flip side, they have Brissett in the bottom third of QBs by DYAR, and in the bottom five by DVOA; on the latter, he's at –41%. They do rate Brissett a better runner than Garoppolo, though, at +34% vs. +14%.

All of that said, there is one major difference between the two—a stat called ALEX, which stands for Air Less EXpected. It's a measure of how far a QB throws a ball on third down (only) relative to the yardage needed for a new set of downs. For Garoppolo, it's +2.9—in other words, his average third-down pass went about three yards beyond the sticks. For Brissett, though, it's –7.3—in other words, Brissett's average third-down pass was over seven yards short of the sticks.

This is part of the problem with trying to judge football with statistics.
In the case Brisset sucks because he executed the plays that were called effectively, but the person analyzing it didn't like the play calls.
We have no clue what Brisset would have done if they called a 15 yard dig, but with a large lead, and a punt being better than a turnover, calling screen passes was wise. You cannot judge his performance by what play was called. Well, you can but like most attempts to reduce football to statistics, it fails miserably.