Football Outsiders: Player voted most likely to decline next year...

[PatsFanSince74]

Remember he got a rest for four games, which may have factored in his game.

You're right. I'm surprised that more people haven't mentioned that. Maybe they don't want to get Disliked and Disagreed out the window. But, I'm fearless, so here goes.

Brady was able to miss four weeks of hits and wear and tear. Then he played four games and had a Bye week. Eight weeks and another Bye. Two weeks and another week off before the SB. By comparison, the Packers had their Bye in the first week of October and were playing their 16th week in a row when they went into ATL for the NFCCG. I don't think anybody was going to beat the Falcons at Home that day, but I do think the fatigue showed on the Packers.

Not trying to draw a lot of conclusions from that. I am only commenting from the perspective of physical wear and tear on a 39 year old guy, and I am not arguing whether someone is necessarily "better" after a week off, which is another discussion entirely. And, I am certainly not suggesting that Brady wouldn't have delivered a brilliant performance without that rest!

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

^ There was a pitcher in the last 15 years (Clements?) that started late and it seemed to improve his game.

 

[patriot1136]

Don't tell Brady this, he will be pissed

 

[archstanton543]

^ There was a pitcher in the last 15 years (Clements?) that started late and it seemed to improve his game.

Who's Clements? I remember Matt Clement who was never the same after he took a line drive off the head.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Remember he got a rest for four games, which may have factored in his game.

Yeah and how much you want a bet if Tom gets accused of cheating again Goodell says, "go ahead Tom, play anyway. I might be dumb, but I'm not stupid".

 

[mosi]

I'd vote for Ben, given the shape he and Brady keep themselves in, Ben seems more likely to go downhill. I get the Brady votes based on history and statistics but Brady is clearly an outlier with how he takes control of his body.

And it is all about the desire. Ben questioning his retirement is a bad sign.

With Brady, he wants to play. Think about this. His wife, a model, wants him to retire. She most likely has used her womanly charm to persuade him to retire. And she has lots of charm, right!

So if Brady is still determined, that is clear evidence of a strong desire to play and something that will keep him around at a high level for a while.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

LOVE IT! Keep the doomsday press rolling...

 

[ALP]

they shouldn't really call this regression...they're talkign about a combination of age/stat decline

if brady was reverse aging 5 years this offseason he most likely would STILL see his stats decline just b/c his play in 16 was ridiculously good

 

[Absurdly Metro]

On a side note Steeler fans should be very worried, the amount of dedication it takes to get ready for an NFL season is off the charts, and if Roethlusberger is thinking about retiring then he is starting to check out mentally. They really could be looking at one more season and done. And the fact that he is viewing the Patriots as their daddy won't help matters much.

I agree about Big Ben but IIRC he said the Patriots were the big brother they were trying to keep up with. I think it was Pedro circa 2003 referring to the Yankees as his daddy.

 

[Nikolai]

I'd be aboard the Ben train, except I think his decline already happened this past season.

 

[Ivan]

I agree about Big Ben but IIRC he said the Patriots were the big brother they were trying to keep up with. I think it was Pedro circa 2003 referring to the Yankees as his daddy.

I agree, I was just paraphrasing him.

 

[Ivan]

I'd be aboard the Ben train, except I think his decline already happened this past season.

His road numbers are really bad the past couple of seasons.

 

[The Brandon Five]

His road numbers are really bad the past couple of seasons.

Hmm...obvious evidence of subterfuge.

 

[Deus Irae]

I'd argue that he's not even the most likely candidate from his own team (Blount), nevermind in the entire league.

 

[Jangles]

I would have voted for Brady too

Be pretty hard to improve on 28-2 and a superbowl MVP.

 

[zydecochris]

I'd argue that he's not even the most likely candidate from his own team (Blount), nevermind in the entire league.

Agreed on both counts. Blount has exceeded expectations (at least my expectations) the last couple of years, but he doesn't seem like that rare running back that maintains excellence in his 30's.

Regarding Brady, there are of course many instances of athletes that seem to defy age falling off a cliff at about 40 (Steve Nash comes to mind). However, Brady just seems in a completely different category that any athlete before or since when it comes to taking care of his body. Plus, so much of his game is between his ears.

 

[TomPatriot]

As good as his physical condition is, I am less concerned about decline than I am about a sudden physical injury, a la Bernard Pollard, circa 2008.

 

[50-yard-line]

31 other fanbases are desperate for hope, so we get this.

Brady is quicker, faster and mechanically better than he was 10 years ago. He's got several more top-level years in him, barring major injury.

 

[Buchanty]

What surprised me most was the absences in the list, most notably Eli Manning. Given that both his brothers, Cooper and Peyton, developed serious spinal conditions at different stages of their careers, and that Eli is now 36 heading towards 37 before the coming season playoffs, I would have expected the Giants' QB to be close to the top of that list. On the other hand he really isn't playing anywhere close to his peak (the 2 SB runs), so any further regression might be harder to detect.

 

[bormio]

By their logic I would think Bres would be higher. He's only a year younger and I don't think anybody would claim he takes care of his body the way Brady does. I'm sure he trains hard but not to the avocado ice cream level.

Brees works his tail off. Remember SD let him go because they thought he and his shoulder were done ..... 8 years ago.