Football Outsiders: Player voted most likely to decline next year...

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

What surprised me most was the absences in the list, most notably Eli Manning. Given that both his brothers, Cooper and Peyton, developed serious spinal conditions at different stages of their careers, and that Eli is now 36 heading towards 37 before the coming season playoffs, I would have expected the Giants' QB to be close to the top of that list. On the other hand he really isn't playing anywhere close to his peak (the 2 SB runs), so any further regression might be harder to detect.

Cooper was BORN with spinal stenosis, and when it was diagnosed, he retired. Peyton had no such genetic issue and neither does Eli. Pretty much anyone can mess up their neck playing football, as Peyton did, and I would not think Eli is any more susceptible. He is on the decline, clearly, though.

 

[Gumby]

I was just having this conversation the other day and the topic of Big Ben retiring before Brady simply due to wear and tear on the body. A lot of which Big Ben has taken in a shorter amount of time due to his size and how he plays the game.

I seriously doubt Ben puts in the off season and in season conditioning like TB does.

I don't think he has taken more hits, especially when you consider the number of games he has sat and fewer number of playoff games ( ), but he sure has publicized his injuries a lot more than Tom has.

But no doubt in my mind he retires before Tom, no later than next year IMO. 50-50 this year.

 

[TomPatriot]

Brady is quicker, faster and mechanically better than he was 10 years ago. He's got several more top-level years in him, barring major injury.

RoboQB.

 

[PlainOldEd]

I'd vote for Ben, given the shape he and Brady keep themselves in, Ben seems more likely to go downhill. I get the Brady votes based on history and statistics but Brady is clearly an outlier with how he takes control of his body.

Not to mention Ben has already openly contemplated retirement. His heart isn't in it.

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

New England Patriots: Tom Brady Will Be the 2017 NFL MVP

So do you believe this article, or the one in the OP?

 

[fair catch fryar]

I seriously doubt Ben puts in the off season and in season conditioning like TB does.

I don't think he has taken more hits, especially when you consider the number of games he has sat and fewer number of playoff games ( ), but he sure has publicized his injuries a lot more than Tom has.

But no doubt in my mind he retires before Tom, no later than next year IMO. 50-50 this year.

Yes, but I feel like he definitely depends on his sheer mass as an asset in and out of the pocket when he scrambles for extra yards rather than throwing it away or going out of bounds. Let's face it, TB12 is far more cerebral than most or all of the QB's in the league. He'll take a hit in order to throw a laser, but knows the risks v. rewards over the long term when scrambling.

 

[Observer]

I thought this was abut declining to go to the White House.

 

[stinkypete]

Brady is the most sensible choice given his age. Still, in the modern NFL, it is entirely possible that a QB can be effective into his 40's if healthy. Here's a quick look at the precedent for decline of HOF level QBs over the past 20 years.

Elway - retired healthy at 38, no notable decline
Marino - slow decline starting in '96, concussions, neck injury, leg injures
Aikman - health concerns for two years then sharp decline in '00, concussions
Young - remained great through age 37 season despite injuries, concussions
Moon - great through age 41 season, decline at age 42
Warner - retired healthy at 38, no notable decline
Favre - Significant decline at age 41, continual nagging injuries
Manning -Significant decline at age 38 tied to injury

A common thread here is that significant QB decline is tied to significant injury, whether concussions or Manning's leg/foot injuries. The two QBs who continued to play without sustaining significant injury declined at or past age 41. The precedent exists for Brady to perform at a pro bowl level for two more years, and it is not impossible that he lasts 3 - 4.

 

[Wordsmyth]

My vote is T Fizzle or James Harrison.