Football Outsiders: Player voted most likely to decline next year...

[oldrover]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 Football Outsiders Awards

21.4% Tom Brady, QB, NE
13.0% Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
9.7% Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
5.9% Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT

5.0% Drew Brees, QB, NO
4.6% DeMarco Murray, RB, TEN
3.4% Philip Rivers, QB, LACH
2.9% Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS

Tom Brady will be 40 years old in 2017. Only twice have quarterbacks in their 40s thrown for more than 20 touchdowns in a season: Warren Moon had 25 with Seattle in 1997, and Brett Favre had 33 with Minnesota in 2009. Brady has shown no signs of slowing down, but the fact is that he is well past the age when most quarterbacks are washed up, and it's not like he could get much better. Speaking of which, Matt Ryan was better in 2016 than he ever had been before. That makes him an obvious candidate for regression as well.

To the people who can't stop betting against Tommy boy, over and over again...

 

[SuperStang83]

I guess eventually they'll be right. We've been hearing the same thing for the last 8 years.

 

[BelichickFan]

I'd vote for Ben, given the shape he and Brady keep themselves in, Ben seems more likely to go downhill. I get the Brady votes based on history and statistics but Brady is clearly an outlier with how he takes control of his body.

 

[farn]

I guess eventually they'll be right. We've been hearing the same thing for the last 8 years.

True.

Well, count me in on the "he will regress" train. I believe Brady will continue being EXCELLENT next year. I do not expect him to be as good as he was in 2016 because it could be argued no one has ever been as good as Brady was in 2016. 28 TD / 2 INT ? Insane ! Even the GOaT might not be able to beat the greatest season of the GOaT !

 

[fair catch fryar]

I'd vote for Ben, given the shape he and Brady keep themselves in, Ben seems more likely to go downhill. I get the Brady votes based on history and statistics but Brady is clearly an outlier with how he takes control of his body.

I was just having this conversation the other day and the topic of Big Ben retiring before Brady simply due to wear and tear on the body. A lot of which Big Ben has taken in a shorter amount of time due to his size and how he plays the game.

 

[slam]

If Brady physically regressed to the point where he had late career Chad Pennington's arm strength but still with the full support of Bill Belichick how would he do? Simply reading defenses, getting the offense into an appropriate play, and relying on his teammates, he'd be likely in the 9-7 through 11-5 range with a chance in the playoffs.

 

[juny]

i mean 28td / 2int, 11 regular season wins, sb mvp is hard for anyone at any age to not regress from.

 

[Dorito Dink]

What's so annoying is that these morons will continue to do this for the next 5 years and if/when Brady finally shows signs of decline at age 45 they'll all claim that they nailed it all along

 

[Jackson 2]

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2016 Football Outsiders Awards

21.4% Tom Brady, QB, NE
13.0% Matt Ryan, QB, ATL
9.7% Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
5.9% Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT

5.0% Drew Brees, QB, NO
4.6% DeMarco Murray, RB, TEN
3.4% Philip Rivers, QB, LACH
2.9% Kirk Cousins, QB, WAS



To the people who can't stop betting against Tommy boy, over and over again...

Hahahahahaha!!!

 

[PrairiePat]

I hope TB heads this list every year!

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

21.4% of the fans are experiencing "wishful thinking".

 

[Bonkowski]

they are in too deep. They can't back down now.

 

[everlong]

By their logic I would think Bres would be higher. He's only a year younger and I don't think anybody would claim he takes care of his body the way Brady does. I'm sure he trains hard but not to the avocado ice cream level.

 

[Rob0729]

I really don't care about these things. Let's face it. Brady is an obvious guess because of his age. I doubt he will pull a Favre and play at an elite level at 39 and be washed up at 40.

 

[Username]

 

[RecoveringCowboy]

Remember he got a rest for four games, which may have factored in his game.

 

[BobDigital]

Eyeball test the most likely to regress is Ben Roethlisberger. It looks like his body just took too much of a beating and he never got down when he should have early in his career. Matt Ryan will be good next year but come back down to earth a bit.

Brady I think goes 38 TDs 5 Ints 4500 yards or so. Hardly declining and no one keeps up a 10:1 TD/Int ratio long term.

Greg Olson will be 32. Old for a TE and I think he had his last 1000 yard season though he will still be okay.

Larry Fitzergerald is about decline fast. We saw it at the end of last year but his career will take a sharp nose dive.

On defense who will decline?

Talib. He just turned 31 and was one of the top 3 CBs last year. That position is all about physical ability and I wonder how much longer his big body at 6'1 205 can keep that quickness up.

Cameron Wake can't keep doing it at 35. I know he started late but at DE 35 is just so old. Amazing he had 11.5 sacks last year and played so well.

 

[Le Numéro Douze]

Can someone please show that to Tom ASAP?

 

[XLIX]

Of that list, Matt Ryan is the most likely to decline - but that's because his 2016 season sets such a high standard. I mean, the guy could throw 4,300 yards with 32 TDs and 11 INTs and that's still a sizable decline from this past year.

 

[Ivan]

I'll take Adrian Peterson. HOF running back but I think his days are numbered. Those looking at QB are looking in the wrong place as most aren't relying upon their athletic ability. If you are looking for regression due to age I think you look first st the older running backs, wide receivers, and cornerbacks. These positions require elite athleticism and that's what is more likely to drop off rapidly. Those thinking Brady will drop off are engaged in wishful thinking, his game is based upon football IQ and accuracy, and in his case both are at their best and aren't affected by a decline in athletic ability, which in his case is actually improving.

On a side note Steeler fans should be very worried, the amount of dedication it takes to get ready for an NFL season is off the charts, and if Roethlusberger is thinking about retiring then he is starting to check out mentally. They really could be looking at one more season and done. And the fact that he is viewing the Patriots as their daddy won't help matters much.