F***ing With Stats: Breaking Down Pats vs Jags

[BobDigital]

I would love the Patriots to put Devlin and Slater out wide on the outside just to see what Jacksonville does. Do their CBs stay on the outside even in that situation? The play would likely fail but it could give a lot of interesting information.

 

[Snooky97]

Run the ball down their necks. This is going to be Patriot football.

Smart, powerful, intelligent, brutal.

Shut their run game down.

Get a lead and let Bortles throw it.

#LFG

 

[Snooky97]

I would love the Patriots to put Devlin and Slater out wide on the outside just to see what Jacksonville does. Do their CBs stay on the outside even in that situation? The play would likely fail but it could give a lot of interesting information.

Well if you go by what Ramsey said, yes. Saw a link yesterday about him saying whoever lines up wide is a corners Job no matter what. Was in response to Gronk though so could just be utter rubbish.

 

[goheels22002]

This will be a Burkhead, White, Gronk passing game given Brady's thumb issue. I doubt we see a single pass more than 20 yards from Brady. Watch for 20+ carries for Lewis.

 

[Uptown]

As per RJ Bell of pregame.com; since 1980, playoff teams that score 40 points or more in a single game are 5-25 against the spread the very next game. Doesn’t bode well for JAX.

The Herd with Colin Cowherd

 

[Uptown]

 

[captain stone]

As per RJ Bell of pregame.com; since 1980, playoff teams that score 40 points or more in a single game are 5-25 against the spread the very next game. Doesn’t bode well for JAX.

Here's what does bode very, very well for Sacksonville, however:

The last 4 times, and 7 of the last 8 times that a #2 or better offense has faced a #2 or better defense in the POs, the defense has won.

 

[captain stone]

I would love the Patriots to put Devlin and Slater out wide on the outside just to see what Jacksonville does. Do their CBs stay on the outside even in that situation? The play would likely fail but it could give a lot of interesting information.

I don't want Matty the Human Forced INT Slater anywhere NEAR the playing field during a play from scrimmage that actually matters.

 

[Nikolai]

This is a little self-serving, but I'm trying to perfect the process, so I figured I'd go back and judge myself.

Predicted | Actual (Green = Right(ish), Red = Wrong)

New England 24 | 24
Jacksonville 14 | 20
------------------------------------
NE Leaders

Brady
25/37, 66.2%, 304 yards, 2TD, 1INT | 26/38, 68.4%, 290, 2TD, 1INT

Lewis
13 carries, 59 yards | 2 rec, 16 yards | 9 carries, 34 yards / 7 rec, 32 yards

Gronkowski
5 rec, 79 yards, 1TD | 1 rec, 21 yards

TOTAL OFFENSE: 415 yards | 356 yards

------------------------------------
JAX Leaders

Bortles
19/32, 59.6%, 197 yards, 1TD, 1INT | 23/36, 63.8%, 293 yards, 1TD, 1INT

Fournette
16 carries, 66 yards, 1TD | 3 rec, 21 yards | 24 carries, 76 yards, 1TD / 2 rec, 13 yards

Cole
3 rec, 53 yards | 2 rec, 37 yards

TOTAL OFFENSE: 328 yards | 394 yards

The biggest X Factor was how Bortles would play, and as it turned out, he played a hell of a game, skewing a lot of my numbers. The total yards for each team are an estimate, as I'm not sure of the official totals, but it's close enough and the two things I got wrong were Bortles' numbers and our rushing numbers. I wasn't TOO far off on Jax's rushing numbers.

Gronk's injury made that prediction moot. Of note, but not listed here, I had Cooks as a virtual tie with Gronk having 5 receptions for 79 yards. His game was even bigger.

I just about nailed Brady's numbers, except for the INT.

In my analysis, I think I can see where I may have gone wrong with Bortles, so hopefully my Super Bowl projections might be better.

This Pats team blows me away...wow.