Draft Guess

[Ring 6]

These are my guesses for the Pats this weekend.

1st round. I think we use one and trade one moving back to the 2nd and getting a 1 next year, like the Boller deal. (I do think that is an excellent trade, so it may be hard to find a partner. I wouldnt be against a 2 plus a 2 next year if its a high 2)
I think with the one we keep, we are going Safety. Nelson would be ideal, Merriwhether or Griffin.

I think we moved around within the 2nd 3rd and 4th, and will end up with a corner and a LB. With one of those picks I would love to see us draft Troy Smith. He has a Brady-like mentality and level-headedness, a good arm, and a track record of being a winner.

4 6th round picks, what to do?
BB will make these choices expecting everyone of them to make the team.
I think DB makes sense, late round DB sticking and helping on s/ts seems to work out. An OL makes sense, we have a good track record of late or undrafted OL sticking on the ps and developing. LB is another possibility here, because of the ability to play on s/ts, and the typical abundance of "tweener' OLB/DEs that are available late with one flaw that needs to be worked on.
I think RB also gets addressed in the 6th. For what we need a RB for next year, there are a ton that COULD fit the bill. Someone will be available in the 6th that will be at least a good backup RB. I think we take a shot here hoping we hit the correct one.

Round 1 Safety
Round 2(trade down) CB/LB
Round 3 CB/LB or Troy Smith
Round 4 CB/LB or Troy Smith (Smith may well fall this far. I would not be shocked at all if we trade up near the top of 4 to get him if he is there at the end of day 1)
Rest of day 2:
A RB, A LB, A DB, mixed among guys who just seem too good to still be on the board by this point, regardless of position.

 

[fgssand]

You may be right with who we are taking in each round:

Round 1 Safety
Round 2(trade down) CB/LB
Round 3 CB/LB or Troy

But I say we move UP....BB saying you cannot mfg. players and everyone looking to move down (hence taking less to do so) leads me to that conclusion.

All the way to 11 for Landry or mid teens for Willis??

 

[Hoss]

Going to stick with Trade 2 1's to GB for 1 and a 2.

1 DT/NG Alan Branch
2 LB Harris/Beason
3 S Gattis/Wendling

 

[Ring 6]

You may be right with who we are taking in each round:

Round 1 Safety
Round 2(trade down) CB/LB
Round 3 CB/LB or Troy

But I say we move UP....BB saying you cannot mfg. players and everyone looking to move down (hence taking less to do so) leads me to that conclusion.

All the way to 11 for Landry or mid teens for Willis??

How do we get that high, and still have a second?
Somehow when BB says everyone wants to trade down, but are needing to accpet less, it tells me BB will trade down. It could be bs, but it could be true. That would mean other teams wont trade down, then a team needing to trade up becomes desperate. Seems like a BB pounce moment.

Example:
There is a lot of talk of the 2nd tier QBs going at the top of the 2nd. Teams that need QBs will get worried toward the end of the first that their guy may go before their pick (Minn, Detroit, Cleveland among other possibliities).
If the offers to trade up are light, then BB sitting at 28 is in perfect position to trade out of it to a team looking QB, and hold them hostage. You are talking about a move up of 7-10 spots or so, and now when the Pats are on the clock, there are limited spots to trade up to.
Maybe BB is just saying trading down will be undervalued in this draft, or maybe there is a method to his commentary.

I think there is absolutely no question that with BBs draft record, all 31 other teams are listening to what he says, and taking it more seriously than what other coaches and GMs are saying. BB is becoming the master of draft day, especially in moving around to get value. His opinion will be valued highly, so the potential to have an ulterior motive in what he says is strong. And I'd be shocked if BB felt he could influence other teams with his press conference and didnt.

 

[pats1]

Going to stick with Trade 2 1's to GB for 1 and a 2.

1 DT/NG Alan Branch
2 LB Harris/Beason
3 S Gattis/Wendling

Beason won't be anywhere near the 2nd round.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

How do we get that high, and still have a second?
Somehow when BB says everyone wants to trade down, but are needing to accpet less, it tells me BB will trade down. It could be bs, but it could be true. That would mean other teams wont trade down, then a team needing to trade up becomes desperate. Seems like a BB pounce moment.

Example:
There is a lot of talk of the 2nd tier QBs going at the top of the 2nd. Teams that need QBs will get worried toward the end of the first that their guy may go before their pick (Minn, Detroit, Cleveland among other possibliities).
If the offers to trade up are light, then BB sitting at 28 is in perfect position to trade out of it to a team looking QB, and hold them hostage. You are talking about a move up of 7-10 spots or so, and now when the Pats are on the clock, there are limited spots to trade up to.
Maybe BB is just saying trading down will be undervalued in this draft, or maybe there is a method to his commentary.

I think there is absolutely no question that with BBs draft record, all 31 other teams are listening to what he says, and taking it more seriously than what other coaches and GMs are saying. BB is becoming the master of draft day, especially in moving around to get value. His opinion will be valued highly, so the potential to have an ulterior motive in what he says is strong. And I'd be shocked if BB felt he could influence other teams with his press conference and didnt.

What BB said was pretty much a repeat of what I've read elsewhere... which of course can be read as "Hey guys, if you want to trade down, you take less this year!"

Okay, so by the chart (as I recall,) 24 and 28 together = 10. Obviously if you want to go to 11 or so, you want something extra, because that isn't even getting you chart value, and BB has just telegraphed "You better have more than chart value, or it aint gonna happen."

So how about, higher 1st rounder and 2nd rounder, for 24, 28, and a couple of tradeable late-rounders (since we have so many untradeables)?

Eh screw it we'll know in a while anyways.

PFnV

 

[Ring 6]

What BB said was pretty much a repeat of what I've read elsewhere... which of course can be read as "Hey guys, if you want to trade down, you take less this year!"

Okay, so by the chart (as I recall,) 24 and 28 together = 10. Obviously if you want to go to 11 or so, you want something extra, because that isn't even getting you chart value, and BB has just telegraphed "You better have more than chart value, or it aint gonna happen."

So how about, higher 1st rounder and 2nd rounder, for 24, 28, and a couple of tradeable late-rounders (since we have so many untradeables)?

Eh screw it we'll know in a while anyways.

PFnV

So you are saying something like 24 and 28 for 11 and 43?
Interesting. What would the chart say about that?

 

[pats1]

So you are saying something like 24 and 28 for 11 and 43?
Interesting. What would the chart say about that?

Using TheRedZone.org's:

24 + 28 = 1,400.

11 + 43 = 1,720.

However:

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/reiss_pieces/

People mention the draft value chart a lot. Is that useless in this situation?
“Yeah, it’s funny, we talked about that today. I think to a degree it is useless because if you want to move back, even though you’re not getting full value or what you think is full value for that move, it still may be in your best interests to move back and do it even though the chart says otherwise. I think in a draft like this you might have to throw that chart out a little bit and decide that if you want to back up a bit -- and find someone that will do it -- you might be taking a little bit less than what you think that value is. If that’s your objective, you just have to go with it. I can definitely see that happening in this draft.”

 

[Canada's #1 Pats Fan]

I think they trade the 28th pick to a team at the top of the 2nd round that needs a QB and didn't take one in the first (ie. Oakland if they go C. Johnson, Detroit, Cleveland, I guess Gruden could use more QB's in camp, Washington, etc.)

 

[JustWinBrady]

here are some of my thoughts...

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the pats trade out of both of their 1st rounders, but the Pats will trade at least one of the #1 picks, most likely 28, and that team will draft one of QBs Drew Stanton 6-3, Michigan State or John Beck 6-2, 215 BYU

But for some reason the pats decide to trade both #1 picks to move up, it would be for either Laron Landry 6-0.5, 213 LSU or Patrick Willis 6-1, 242 Mississippi.

Out of the (4) 6th round picks. Two of them will be traded. Possibly both picks for a 5th. The other two cannot be traded because they are compensation picks.

I believe the pats will end up with at least one of these safeties
Aaron Rouse, 6-3, 221, Virginia Tech
John Gattis, 6-1, 210, Wake Forest
John Wendling, 6-1, 220, Wyoming
Eric Weddle, 6-0, 200, Utah
Sabby Piscitelli, 6-3, 225, Oregon State
Tanard Jackson 6-0, 200 Syracuse (FS)

If the pats select a RB I would expect a Lorenzo Booker 5-10, 191 Florida State or Brian Leonard 6-1, 225 Rutgers Darius Walker 5-10, 206 Notre Dame or Tony Hunt 6-2, 233Penn State

Pats will go out of their way to try to draft Zak DeOssie 6-4.5, 250 Brown

Pats will be keeping an eye on QB Jared Zabransky 6-2, 220 Boise State

WR Jason Hill 6-0, 205 Washington State could be a surprise pick for the pats.

BB like BC offensive lineman so James Marten 6-7, 310 Boston College and Josh Beekman 6-2, 313 Boston College could be in the mix.

At least one player will be drafted from either Fresno state (pat hill), Florida (Urban Meyer) or Iowa (kirk ferenz).

It appears with all the punter activity, BB is looking to upgrade the punter position, Daniel Sepulveda 6-3, 225 Baylor could be their guy (Malone on the PS has been looking good)

The pats will seriously consider Alan Branch 6-5.5, 325 Michigan if he falls to them.

 

[maverick4]

So you are saying something like 24 and 28 for 11 and 43?
Interesting. What would the chart say about that?

I also think BB may make a move like this based on what he hinted at. Since only 16 or so prospects are deemed '1st round material' in this draft, it makes sense to move up and grab one of the blue chip guys.

 

[groundgame]

Do we take RB Marshawn Lynch if he is available at #24, to tandem up with Maroney, then take a LB,CB or S at #28, on the premise that why wait for next year's draft if the window of opportunity in the Brady era is closing, as #12 heads to the back nine of his career?

 

[teamplay]

Nice prediction on the first 2 picks, Andy! Uncanny!