Draft day trade up values, and Jordan Davis

[venecol]

No trade up. If JDavis isn't there at 21 (unlikely) then pick Jermaine Johnson who should be available. Line him up opposite Judon to create havoc for any QB. We're not in a position to give up picks for any player. There are plenty of good prospects to fill our needs (DT, DE, CB, OL, WR).

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

I could not care less about his 40 time, NT have to sprint 40 yards maybe once a game if that. What I do care about is 6'6 340+ pounds with some lateral agility. I hate putting all of my draft hopes on one guy but this is without a doubt the one I am making a small trade up for despite the lack of picks. A true run stuffing fat ass is the thing this defense has been missing for awhile. It makes everyone elses job easier. LBs can flow to the ball. CBs face third and long more often. If he is still there at 16 and the eagles are willing to trade I would even do next year's number 1 or the trade you suggested. I wouldnt give up more then that for higher though because the pats do need a CB, a LB, and an OT capable of starting this year or next. Thats a big ask from one draft. Not to mention lower priorities but also would be nice in WR, Edge, FS, and 3rd down back.

Two first round picks for a NT who has had issues with conditioning and little third down value as it stands rn
I know it’s about projection but that’s a lot of draft capital for that position
Do you think the Giants would draft Lawrence again or Browns with Shelton in the first ? I doubt it

 

[NormZauchin]

The problem is that we're right at the cut off point for finding a true top player. A lot of the guy who will go 22+ are being projected by other as 2nd rounders. The consensus around the 1st rounders ends right around pick 22.

If there is a consensus that there are 21 or 22 true first round players, then it is extremely likely that more than one will still be on the board when the Pats' turn comes up. The question will be the position, though with so many needs, it would probably be someone we could use immediately.

 

[pazrul72]

Two first round picks for a NT who has had issues with conditioning and little third down value as it stands rn
I know it’s about projection but that’s a lot of draft capital for that position
Do you think the Giants would draft Lawrence again or Browns with Shelton in the first ? I doubt it

Conditioning can be worked on. Men that big who can move don’t come around very often. A two down NT is worth it to me if 2-5 times a game the defense faces 3rd and 7+ because on the first two downs the offense ran into a brick wall. Now the rest of the defense needs to be good enough to take advantage of those favorable situations so no one player is going to fix everything but this is THE guy IMO that fixes a lot of issues the defense has had for years. Pair him with Barmore and the defensive line goes from having issues to terrorizing people. Still need at least one plus starter quality LB, preferably with sideline to sideline speed, and a situational edge player to take some attention away from Judon, but those are doable if you don’t give up too much this year.

 

[mgteich]

If there is a consensus that there are 21 or 22 true first round players, then it is extremely likely that more than one will still be on the board when the Pats' turn comes up. The question will be the position, though with so many needs, it would probably be someone we could use immediately.

What is required that first round player at a position of interest is available. I suspect that this will happen for a CB, DT or DE.

But, sure if a small move up will get Belichick a stud that he wants, then Belichick will move up if the cost is right. I would note that i though that Belichick would move up a couple spots last year, fearing that a team would trade up to a spot or two before us. Belichick took the risk. A team did trade to move up; they drafted a guard. Someone else might have traded into a spot one or two before us and drafted a QB.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Two first round picks for a NT who has had issues with conditioning and little third down value as it stands rn
I know it’s about projection but that’s a lot of draft capital for that position
Do you think the Giants would draft Lawrence again or Browns with Shelton in the first ? I doubt it

On the flipside, what about a Vea, Ngata, Wilfork, etc?

I love what Davis could bring to this defense. I think it makes more sense to take a small trade down and target someone like Jones, instead, who can be a big run-stuffer in his own right. That frees up another draft pick for some of our many needs.

 

[patsfanfromoversea]

On the flipside, what about a Vea, Ngata, Wilfork, etc?
I love what Davis could bring to this defense. I think it makes more sense to take a small trade down and target someone like Jones, instead, who can be a big run-stuffer in his own right. That frees up another draft pick for some of our many needs.

I agree I would prefer Jones as well or a combination of Brandon Williams and the kentucky NT in the later rounds
DE or CB is a must high pick for me
We need two starting outside cb
Maybe ward and mister x via draft

 

[zimmy]

I would hate it if we traded up. I'm all in on trading down actually - we've got so many needs and there doesn't seem to be much drop off from the player we get at 21, to the player we would get at 40. I say try and get an extra 2nd or high 3rd.

 

[Jim Beankie]

Pats traded up in the 1st Rnd for Graham, Warren, ChanJones, and HighT. If they did it for JDavis, I wouldn't question it... (although it wouldn't be my preference, personally).

According to the official combine splits, in a 10 yd race with Kupp, JDavis, ADonald, and Davante Adams, Kupp would win by maybe 2 inches (.01s), JD and AD would be tied for 2nd, and Davante would be dead last. This is how freaky this big guy is (if the combine split numbers are to be believed this year).

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yeah, far too many needs, too few picks already and a good deep draft class. We're almost certainly trading out of Round 1

It depends on how Belichick views the players in the draft. In 2010 he just decided to make two small tradedowns, 22 to 24 to 27. He could've traded down even further, but he didn't want to risk losing out on McCourty.

IOW, I'm about 90% sure the Pats will trade down from 21, but it's maybe 50-50 that they trade out of round 1.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

What is required that first round player at a position of interest is available. I suspect that this will happen for a CB, DT or DE.

But, sure if a small move up will get Belichick a stud that he wants, then Belichick will move up if the cost is right. I would note that i though that Belichick would move up a couple spots last year, fearing that a team would trade up to a spot or two before us. Belichick took the risk. A team did trade to move up; they drafted a guard. Someone else might have traded into a spot one or two before us and drafted a QB.

To be fair, Belichick said they did inquire into moving up, but felt teams were asking for too much to do so. [Thanks, John Lynch.]

 

[zimmy]

Not interested in a trade up given all the holes we have and the players who should be there at 21. Would prefer to trade down if anything, although I think there is a drop off around number 32 so wouldn't go too far. My ideal would be to do a Devin McCourty style trade. I think we had something like the 21st pick in 2010 and then moved down 6 spots and took Devin at 27.

My shortlist of players who could realistically be available at 21 and I like in the late first for us are: Olave, Booth, Penning, Hill, Elam, Wyatt, Johnson.

 

[everlong]

The hope for the Pats is that teams fall in love with the QBs and WRs. If Corral, Willis and Pickett all go before the Pats pick that's terrific news. Then the WRs that would include Wilson, London, Burks, Olave and maybe somebody even rolls the dice on Williams who if not for the injury would have been a top 20 pick.

If at least 6 of these picks go before us somebody, maybe several somebody's, of Booth, Stingley, McDuffy, Dean, Lloyd, Davis and Hill will be there at 21. So I'm not advocating for a trade up.

Stingley would be a great story at a position of need.

I don't think Dean fits the Bill mold but that kid would give us the Devin White type of LB who can go sideline to sideline in both coverage and the run game.

Lloyd is a bit inconsistent but he's versatile as all hell which Bill loves. He can set the edge and will take on blockers.

Hill would be interesting to get a year of DMC tutoring.

Davis and Barmore would be the best middle we've had in a while.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

The hope for the Pats is that teams fall in love with the QBs and WRs. If Corral, Willis and Pickett all go before the Pats pick that's terrific news.

Pickett is probably going top ten



Someone will bite on Willis too. Corral isn't for everyone. Some teams just won't like him so it'll really take a hard push to make him a RD1 pick imo but it only takes one team.

Then the WRs that would include Wilson, London, Burks, Olave and maybe somebody even rolls the dice on Williams who if not for the injury would have been a top 20 pick.

If at least 6 of these picks go before us somebody, maybe several somebody's, of Booth, Stingley, McDuffy, Dean, Lloyd, Davis and Hill will be there at 21. So I'm not advocating for a trade up.

Stingley would be a great story at a position of need.

I don't think Dean fits the Bill mold but that kid would give us the Devin White type of LB who can go sideline to sideline in both coverage and the run game.

Lloyd is a bit inconsistent but he's versatile as all hell which Bill loves. He can set the edge and will take on blockers.

I love Lloyd but think he could be a little more physical taking on contact. Could improve his hands in that area. He'll get taken out if he's not careful on some power stuff. Has a little trouble beating doubles and pullers with physicality. He's inconsistent there imo but he's really good using his length, navigating through bigger bodies. Really good at that. Very good slipping blocks, using his leverage and getting underneath pullers. I think it's safe to say he wins with mental processing, length and lateral quickness as opposed to straight physicality.

I really like his processing and understanding of what type of run is coming.

If we have indeed relaxed our requirements at LB him and Dean will be looked at imo. Dean is actually more physical all-around but the size of Dugger.

I'll have Dean LB1 but I think both will get looks if we're still looking there and are looking for a more modern type.

Hill would be interesting to get a year of DMC tutoring.

I comp'd them together actually and see a lot of similarities. Replacing DMC is a chore and I'm not sure Hill is a prototype FS but he's damm good. And again like DMC he's a versatile playmaker with leadership qualities.

Davis and Barmore would be the best middle we've had in a while.

That's one of the reasons why you get Barmore. Not just for what he can do on 1st & 2nd downs or stop the run but him and Barmore as a package. Jones wouldn't be bad either.

 

[everlong]

Pickett is probably going top ten
View attachment 42174


Someone will bite on Willis too. Corral isn't for everyone. Some teams just won't like him so it'll really take a hard push to make him a RD1 pick imo but it only takes one team.

I love Lloyd but think he could be a little more physical taking on contact. Could improve his hands in that area. He'll get taken out if he's not careful on some power stuff. Has a little trouble beating doubles and pullers with physicality. He's inconsistent there imo but he's really good using his length, navigating through bigger bodies. Really good at that. Very good slipping blocks, using his leverage and getting underneath pullers. I think it's safe to say he wins with mental processing, length and lateral quickness as opposed to straight physicality.

I really like his processing and understanding of what type of run is coming.

If we have indeed relaxed our requirements at LB him and Dean will be looked at imo. Dean is actually more physical all-around but the size of Dugger.

I'll have Dean LB1 but I think both will get looks if we're still looking there and are looking for a more modern type.

I comp'd them together actually and see a lot of similarities. Replacing DMC is a chore and I'm not sure Hill is a prototype FS but he's damm good. And again like DMC he's a versatile playmaker with leadership qualities.

That's one of the reasons why you get Barmore. Not just for what he can do on 1st & 2nd downs or stop the run but him and Barmore as a package. Jones wouldn't be bad either.

You went into a lot more depth than I did but I essentially agree with everything you said.

I'd add.

I think Hill with the right coaching can get there. If we could get that next 10 year starter who can be the versatile general back there sign me up.

Your points on Dugger and Dean is why I find it so compelling. Imagine on 3 and 3-7 you play a 4-2-5 where the 2 are Dean and Dugger. That's two players who can cover TEs, play zone like a Devin White, blitz and if they other team decides to mix it up with the run still be able to take on blocks.

Barmore and Davis similar to Dugger and Dean opens up so much with how you could play your fronts. They could easily be like Seattle flipping between 4-3 and 3-4 to cause confusion. Even in the 4-3 sliding between conventional and NT/Big-End/3-Tech/Leo would be in play.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You went into a lot more depth than I did but I essentially agree with everything you said.

I'd add.

I think Hill with the right coaching can get there. If we could get that next 10 year starter who can be the versatile general back there sign me up.

I think him and Brisker are gone by 32-40. Hill reminds me of DMC with a little Budda Baker mixed in. I know someone that has Brisker Saf1 and they're one of like 5 people I actually pay attention too.

Your points on Dugger and Dean is why I find it so compelling. Imagine on 3 and 3-7 you play a 4-2-5 where the 2 are Dean and Dugger. That's two players who can cover TEs, play zone like a Devin White, blitz and if they other team decides to mix it up with the run still be able to take on blocks.

I think Dean would be a natural KVN replacement. I'm really impressed with his closing speed esp once he diagnoses a play. He just knifes through the play. High floor, someone who should make an impact day one.

Barmore and Davis similar to Dugger and Dean opens up so much with how you could play your fronts. They could easily be like Seattle flipping between 4-3 and 3-4 to cause confusion. Even in the 4-3 sliding between conventional and NT/Big-End/3-Tech/Leo would be in play.

Barmore played a good amount of 3T at UG in the same we use our 3T.

I'm making a list of guys with unique skill sets and he's right at the top despite his obvious limitations. I think he could make a few small improvements that would definitely help but he's another high floor guy that will come in day one and make a difference. And I've mentioned this before but he's a very nice kid. Super humble and comes across as a very likable guy. Whoever drafts him will have a giant they can send out in the community that isn't getting arrested or doing dumb stuff. I heard he's killing it in the interviews so he might very well be a top 10-12 pick.

 

[Boomer B]

No way am I trading 2 or more valuable picks for him. If it was 20 years ago maybe, but not now. The NFL is a passing game now. A space eating D-tackle isn't worth that type of haul. We also have multiple holes to fill and need the picks to help fill them. At 21 I'm going the best possible player at WR, CB, LB, or OL or trading down for a later 1st rounder or earlier 2nd rounder + a 3rd.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yes, if you think the kid is a game changer of the type you need, and you don't think the kid will be there when you pick, you look into trading up. That's just common sense and good business.

 

[Boston Boxer]

I don't think we are trading UP at all. We don't have that many picks and BB loves to trade DOWN for more picks and value.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't think we are trading UP at all. We don't have that many picks and BB loves to trade DOWN for more picks and value.

Not sure of the exact number but at present they only have 68 players under contract and only 6 draft picks.

I assume if they want "their guys" they'll trade up (Barmore as an example) and burn a pick but they'll have to sign a ton of vet FAs and UFAs to get to 90 for the camp roster.