Draft day trade up values, and Jordan Davis

[Sicilian]

So, I've been thinking about this for a while, specifically in regards to Jordan Davis. I think he's the kind of prospect that Bill loves, and is that kind of unicorn that you're not going to find in many drafts. That said, I really doubt he lasts anywhere close to 21. So I wanted to see what kind of haul the Pats would have to give up to move to various spots, so we can discuss whether something like that would be worth it or not. This doesn't have to just be about Davis, but I'm using that to try to predict what spot we'd likely need to get to leapfrog teams who might be interested.

For this exercise, I used the draft pick value chart here: 2022 NFL Trade Value Chart This is by no means definitive, and teams get more (or less) for trade downs all the time depending on the year. But it gives us a starting point for discussion.

The way I see it, just using this year's picks, the absolute highest we could trade up is 10 (giving up both our 2nd and 3rd round picks). But seeing as 10 is the Jets, I don't know how likely that move would be. So we'll use 11 (Washington), as the first bid:

Patriots Give up:
Pick 21 (1st)
Pick 54 (2nd)
Pick 85 (3rd)

Washington Gives up:
Pick 11 (1st)
Pick 112 (4th)

I'm loathe to give up both of our day 2 picks, because I think we need more than one player to inject youth into this team going forward, but that's the first available point where a trade up would be possible IMO.

Next I'm looking at 13, Cleveland. This leapfrogs Baltimore, who might view him as a Ngata type player, and gets you ahead of all three of Philly's first rounders:

Patriots Give up:
Pick 21 (1st)
Pick 54 (2nd)
2023 6th rounder

Cleveland Gives up:
Pick 13 (1st)
Pick 192 (6th)

Still a lot, there is some depth in the 2nd round this year, but more palatable I think.

One last scenario, pick 16 with the Eagles. Davis has been mocked to the Chargers at 17 a few times, so this may be the last chance to trade up (if he even lasts this long). With 16 being the last of Philly's 3 firsts, they may have gotten the guys they really like already, and might be more open to move back for more picks overall.

Patriots Give up:
Pick 21 (1st)
Pick 85 (3rd)
Pick 126 (4th)

Philly Gives up:
Pick 16 (1st)
Pick 204 (6th)


What are you thoughts on potential moves like this? Even if not for Davis specifically, but with the supposed depth in this year's draft and the number of positions that could use upgrades (pre free agency), do you want to trade up or should they keep the few picks they have?

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

If hes there 16ish i say go for it

 

[slash83]

They have six picks and needs to fill, they’re a lot more likely to trade down out of the first round before they trade up.

 

[jboston19]

I can’t see bill valuing one player over filling multiple needs no matter how unique.

 

[borg]

Too many holes
More likely to trade down
Scouting some D3 gems as we speak

 

[archstanton543]

The Pats are going to trade down this draft so don't get your hopes up.

 

[Username]

Yeah, far too many needs, too few picks already and a good deep draft class. We're almost certainly trading out of Round 1

 

[Sicilian]

I agree that a trade down is more likely this year, for all the reasons everyone's already stated. This was more a theoretical exercise, something to think about while we wait for free agency to begin. That said, the Patriots DO trade up when they like someone. It's usually small moves (1-5 spots), but it happens. So if they REALLY like someone who's fallen to the 16-19 range, I could see them trading up. Perhaps future picks are more likely, given they don't have many to work with this year.

But again, I agree with those saying a trade down is more likely. If I had to bet on one or the other, I'm taking that.

 

[Wozzy]

If he falls the way Barmore did grab him, otherwise they have a lot of holes to fill. Massive DT’s don’t have the value they did a decade or more ago.

 

[Water Boy]

I'd like Travis Jones at 21 as a consolation prize rather than a trade up. It might be a slight reach, but he may not make it out of Rd 1. A slight trade back would be nice. Unfortunately we are so weak at the CB position I think that's going to be our first pick as many will come off the board in Round 1.

 

[PatsFan2]

They are other DT's that can be add for much less we already have Christian Barmore we just need a decent young guy to compliment him. I'm all for Trading 21 and picking up a extra pick no one Guy is turning this Team around we need quite a few.

 

[PatsFan2]

I'd like Travis Jones at 21 as a consolation prize rather than a trade up. It might be a slight reach, but he may not make it out of Rd 1. A slight trade back would be nice. Unfortunately we are so weak at the CB position I think that's going to be our first pick as many will come off the board in Round 1.

I like Travis Jones too he can get to the QB strengthening our Front 7 is going to be key. I also wouldn't mind us going back to the 4-3 Defense when Trey Flowers comes back in the fold.

 

[signbabybrady]

I don't know what I'd be willing to trade to get him but I want him.

 

[PatsFan2]

Question what's the take on his Team mate

Devonte Wyatt?

 

[ashley]

After his workout, he'll be gone, probably in the 10-15 range. As much as I think he would be incredible here and we'd be able to pair him up with Barmore, the cost is going to be too much and we still need to fill holes through the draft.

I think if anything, we will probably move back to get extra picks.

 

[TheRainMaker]

It always freaks me out to see a guy as big as he is run the 40 time as fast as I did in High School.

 

[pazrul72]

I could not care less about his 40 time, NT have to sprint 40 yards maybe once a game if that. What I do care about is 6'6 340+ pounds with some lateral agility. I hate putting all of my draft hopes on one guy but this is without a doubt the one I am making a small trade up for despite the lack of picks. A true run stuffing fat ass is the thing this defense has been missing for awhile. It makes everyone elses job easier. LBs can flow to the ball. CBs face third and long more often. If he is still there at 16 and the eagles are willing to trade I would even do next year's number 1 or the trade you suggested. I wouldnt give up more then that for higher though because the pats do need a CB, a LB, and an OT capable of starting this year or next. Thats a big ask from one draft. Not to mention lower priorities but also would be nice in WR, Edge, FS, and 3rd down back.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

I could not care less about his 40 time, NT have to sprint 40 yards maybe once a game if that. What I do care about is 6'6 340+ pounds with some lateral agility. I hate putting all of my draft hopes on one guy but this is without a doubt the one I am making a small trade up for despite the lack of picks. A true run stuffing fat ass is the thing this defense has been missing for awhile. It makes everyone elses job easier. LBs can flow to the ball. CBs face third and long more often. If he is still there at 16 and the eagles are willing to trade I would even do next year's number 1 or the trade you suggested. I wouldnt give up more then that for higher though because the pats do need a CB, a LB, and an OT capable of starting this year or next. Thats a big ask from one draft. Not to mention lower priorities but also would be nice in WR, Edge, FS, and 3rd down back.

If we love a guy at 16 and we can trade up for a 3rd and change per the OP, we can get a pick back by trading down from our 2nd rounder to get a couple of 3rd rounders. There's several teams with multiple choices in the 3rd & high 4th rounds. So we move up from 21 to 16, giving up our 3rd (85), then trade down from 54 to get a high 3rd and high 4th - e.g., with the Jags. We start with 21-54-85, and end up with 16-70-105.

 

[upstater1]

The Pats are going to trade down this draft so don't get your hopes up.

The problem is that we're right at the cut off point for finding a true top player. A lot of the guy who will go 22+ are being projected by other as 2nd rounders. The consensus around the 1st rounders ends right around pick 22.

 

[40yrpatsfan]

The problem is that we're right at the cut off point for finding a true top player. A lot of the guy who will go 22+ are being projected by other as 2nd rounders. The consensus around the 1st rounders ends right around pick 22.

A good problem to have. I can see us picking unless it's just a small move down. Unlikely we move up unless someone really slips to the mid-teens, cause we just don't have the ammo.