Curious to hear everyone's thoughts on Welker

[ctpatsfan77]

As much as I love Welker he is not a top level receiver: Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are the only ones in that category IMO.

2007-2011:

Andre Johnson: 395 receptions, 5703 yards, 35 TDs
Larry Fitzgerald: 463 receptions, 6480 yards, 49 TDs
Wes Welker: 554 receptions, 6105 yards, 31 TDs

No, he's not the premier downfield threat, but that doesn't mean he's not a top-level receiver.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I smell a sign and trade.

I smell a franchise tag followed by a long-term deal between now and the start of training camp.

 

[UK_Pat37]

I smell a franchise tag followed by a long-term deal between now and the start of training camp.

Patriots reportedly offered him 2 years, $16 million fully guaranteed during the regular season according to Bedard and Young.

To me, it does't seem like the Patriots see Welker as having long term value. If they do, it's going to be top heavy and decline steeply after two years. They ahve two of the league's top two TEs on offense to look at in two years and I think the team would definitely like to sign both.

Saying the two sides are 'far apart' would definitely be an understatement. They are worlds apart. We've got by for a decade with Brady and sometimes average wide receivers and in our dynasty days it was our defense which propped the offense up when it had to. I prefer those days. Tag Welker, trade him (he's going to ask for too much) and bring in Williams and stack up on WRs in FA and the draft. Re-sign Branch to a veteran deal and restructure Ocho's contract.

I like Meachem in free agency or Lloyd.

 

[upstater1]

$16 million guaranteed over 2 years sounds like decent money to me for Wes.

If he's hoping for a lot more, I bet he plays under the tag.

I mean, no other team is going to pay him $18 million over 2 years.

 

[Ring 6]

Andy I understand where your going with that, my thought process is he's a great player for 2 more years but going into year 3 declines and players that rely on quickness not top end speed not great body control not overpowering defenders, you could have as much heart as anyone and if you rely on your initial quickness to get separation it'll fade fast.

One thing i've always admired about BB is making a tough business decision and not making it a personal emotional one.

He will get rid of a player 2 years faster, than 2 years too late, for instance, Willie, Mike, Wes, Jabar, Ty, Randy, Bruce Armstrong, Chris Slade, Ben Coates.

Almost all these players had arguably 2 solid years left, and he parted ways and rebuilt without these guys, now going by that logic if we can resign Welker to a contract that doesn't have any or little guaranteed money into year 3 and doesn't hurt the teams chance to upgrade other areas over the next 2 years that contract would make sense.

You could make that argument with any player. Of course the team would rather have the safety of a shorter term contract, but that isn't realistic. Marshawn Lynch just had one pretty good year after being picked up off that scrap heap after losing his job in Buffalo just got 4 years and 31 mill. with 18 mill guaranteed.
Taking the approach that you would only give a guy the quality of Wes Welker 2 years because you are afraid he may be declining by year 3 is the perfect way to inusre the only good players you will have are in their rookie contract or were FA surprise overachievers.

On the other hand if he wants to get paid and wants security for his wife and possible family for years past his playing time and wants Tom and Giselle type lifestyle he's not getting it in New England where is a team like Seattle or Washington would break the bank for him where is we wouldn't.

What does Tom Brady's lifestyle have to do with anything? Do you seriously believe that on the one hand signing Welker long term is stupid, but on the other hand teams would line up to do it?

Plus the free agent market is flooded as well is the draft with plug and play receivers so I think the Patriots are value shopping, ala LLoyd, or if they do break the bank its for a dynamic player like Wallace or a Jackson who has 3 to 4 years of dominant play vs 2.

Plug and play? You are kidding right? How did that work out with 85 who had a much better career before coming here than either of those guys?
Welker is the focal point of the passing offense. I certainly hope BB doesn't decide to pay more for a lesser player because of some misplaced fear that he will hit some mythical wall in 2 years.

Unfortunately for nostalgic fans BB doesn't look as past performance for rewards he looks at in his words this week.

I have no idea what you are trying to say here.

In alot of ways I believe a players past contributions is not looked at as what they wanna give the player but what can that player contribute in the hear and now.

If you are saying BB doesnt pay because of what a player used to be, but because of what he will produce in the coming contract term, well, of course, but what does that have to do with this discussion?

It's a tough business but that's also how the Patriots have stayed so competitive in the salary cap era, and why I say have your Patriots jersey with velcro lettering on the name on the jersey because things change, especially with the Belichick led Patriots.

I am a root for the laundry guy, but you don't make decisions on players based on some rhetorical concept that doesn't apply to the player.

If they resign Wes Welker to a huge non cap friendly deal than I will completely eat crow and the philosophy has changed out of desperation in my humble opinion. Either way 14 and 2 or 2 and 14 I'm still a fan here in Lancaster PA.

It would not be a change in philosophy at all. BB has ALWAYS kept the players that can still play. You seem to think Welker is over the hill and in the McGinest or Vrabel departure category. I see a guy who just came off his best year and seems to continue to improve as he and Brady work together more and more.
I just don't understand why fans of a team with TFB at QB would be so adamant about taking away the favortie weapon he has ever had.

But again, my question was if you feel it would be bad move for the Patriots and you want to trade him, why wouldn't you stick a division rival with him so they can take on the negatives that seem to appall you?

 

[JackBauer]

As much as I love Welker he is not a top level receiver: Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are the only ones in that category IMO.

Calvin Johnson says hello.

 

[Deus Irae]

As much as I love Welker he is not a top level receiver: Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson are the only ones in that category IMO.

How nice for you

 

[Ring 6]

$16 million guaranteed over 2 years sounds like decent money to me for Wes.

If he's hoping for a lot more, I bet he plays under the tag.

I mean, no other team is going to pay him $18 million over 2 years.

Someone just paid Marshawn Lynch, a castoff one year ago, 31 mill for 4 years with 18 mill guaranteed.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We've got by for a decade with Brady and sometimes average wide receivers and in our dynasty days it was our defense which propped the offense up when it had to. I prefer those days. Tag Welker, trade him (he's going to ask for too much)

As I've pointed out before, for some reason, I'm thinking that if the Patriots trade Welker, Brady is not going to be a happy camper about it.

 

[Ring 6]

Patriots reportedly offered him 2 years, $16 million fully guaranteed during the regular season according to Bedard and Young.

To me, it does't seem like the Patriots see Welker as having long term value. If they do, it's going to be top heavy and decline steeply after two years. They ahve two of the league's top two TEs on offense to look at in two years and I think the team would definitely like to sign both.

Saying the two sides are 'far apart' would definitely be an understatement. They are worlds apart.

Really? What is Welker asking for and what are the Patriots offering?
If in fact the offer during the season was made, it would tell me they aren't very far apart since during the playoffs Welker said he expected he wasn't going anywhere.

We've got by for a decade with Brady and sometimes average wide receivers and in our dynasty days it was our defense which propped the offense up when it had to. I prefer those days. Tag Welker, trade him (he's going to ask for too much) and bring in Williams and stack up on WRs in FA and the draft. Re-sign Branch to a veteran deal and restructure Ocho's contract.

I like Meachem in free agency or Lloyd.

Just so I understand. You want to take the one and only strength this team had in 2011 (passing offense) and tear it apart?
And you want to trade Welker but keep Branch and 85?

 

[Deus Irae]

I miss the days when Patriots fans were more reasonable about contracts, and didn't approach every free agency situation as if it were their personal money on the line and they were Ebenezer Scrooge (pre-ghosts).

 

[Ring 6]

$16 million guaranteed over 2 years sounds like decent money to me for Wes.

If he's hoping for a lot more, I bet he plays under the tag.

I mean, no other team is going to pay him $18 million over 2 years.

I don't keep track of contracts so I hate making guesses because you really have to see the market to gauge it, but what the hell.
I predict Welker will get 4 years 38 mill, with a 15mill singing bonus and salaries of 1mill, 5mill, 7mill, 10mill and cap numbers of 4.75, 8.75, 10.75, 13.75.
Therefore you get 2 years are 13.5 plus 7.5 dead
or 3 years at 24.25 and 3.75 dead. if he doesnt see the end of the contract.
I have no problem guaranteeing all money in the first 2 years (21 mill).

 

[UK_Pat37]

As I've pointed out before, for some reason, I'm thinking that if the Patriots trade Welker, Brady is not going to be a happy camper about it.

I think it's a distinct possibility. I don't think the Pats even want to pay Welker the $9.4 million tag hit...and I don't think Welker would be too happy himself if he entered the 2012 season playing under the tag.

Really? What is Welker asking for and what are the Patriots offering?
If in fact the offer during the season was made, it would tell me they aren't very far apart since during the playoffs Welker said he expected he wasn't going anywhere.

Just so I understand. You want to take the one and only strength this team had in 2011 (passing offense) and tear it apart?
And you want to trade Welker but keep Branch and 85?

I wouldn't believe everything you hear in the media...even if it was quoted from the player. What else is he supposed to say? Of course he;'s going to say 'I expect to be a Patriot next year'. If he says anything else then he's making a bed for himself!

Yes I do. I'e stated the reasons and my arguments a million times so I'm not going to do it yet again, but we can keep our middle of the field production even without Welker. We need a deeper threat and a more physical receiver lining up at split end. Brady makes Welker imo.

 

[Deus Irae]

Brady makes Welker imo.

Belichick disagrees

 

[UK_Pat37]

Belichick disagrees

I'm sorry, I didn't realise you were best friends

 

[Deus Irae]

I'm sorry, I didn't realise you were best friends

Go read what he said about Welker when the trade went down.

 

[Ring 6]

I think it's a distinct possibility. I don't think the Pats even want to pay Welker the $9.4 million tag hit...and I don't think Welker would be too happy himself if he entered the 2012 season playing under the tag.




I wouldn't believe everything you hear in the media...even if it was quoted from the player. What else is he supposed to say? Of course he;'s going to say 'I expect to be a Patriot next year'. If he says anything else then he's making a bed for himself!

YOU are the one saying they are WORLDS APART.
He didn't have to say anything.
But wait, now your argument is that they are worlds apart, based upon what you read in the media about an offer and what you are guessing he is asking for, and that Welker was lying?

Yes I do. I'e stated the reasons and my arguments a million times so I'm not going to do it yet again,

Oh, I am sorry that I am supposed to know what your position is. I guess we can talk again when I do some studying or I become as important as you are and I am worth your time

but we can keep our middle of the field production even without Welker.

Welker had the 19th most receiving yards of any receiver in any season in history. Yeah, should be no problem replacing that. I suppose you want Edelman to do it, since he's a white guy too.

We need a deeper threat and a more physical receiver lining up at split end. Brady makes Welker imo.

Brady gets Welker open? If Brady makes Welker why have no other WRs playing for Brady put up Welker numbers? Why cant 85 have 1 good game?
Oh well, you are entitled to your opinion.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Go read what he said about Welker when the trade went down.

Back in 2007? What's something Belichick said 5 years ago got to do with any situation now? My betting is the Pats see Welker as valuable int he short term. They aren't going to want to pay him too far down the line.

YOU are the one saying they are WORLDS APART.
He didn't have to say anything.
But wait, now your argument is that they are worlds apart, based upon what you read in the media about an offer and what you are guessing he is asking for, and that Welker was lying?

I think they are...if the league source is true in saying the Pats offered him $16 million guaranteed over two years then if Welker is expecting long term security you can bet your bottom dollar that the Pats aren't thinking as far as him. If Welker wants four years and that'#s all the Pats are willing to give I would say a two year difference is worlds apart. $16 guaranteed for two years is excellent..the only flaw you can really bring up is that Welker wants more years on his deal.

Oh, I am sorry that I am supposed to know what your position is. I guess we can talk again when I do some studying or I become as important as you are and I am worth your time

Stop twisting my words. All I said is I'm not going to go over it again...it's no reflection of you or anyone else, I've just debated this for pages on many a forum more than once, and I don't want to again

Welker had the 19th most receiving yards of any receiver in any season in history. Yeah, should be no problem replacing that. I suppose you want Edelman to do it, since he's a white guy too.

Welker lines up primarily as a split-end now and all his routes cover the middle of the field. We have close to zero production deep or outside of the numbers right now. If you ask me can I live with Gronk, H-Bomb, Branch and Edelman over the middle and then yes, I would settle for that in my team. Then you focus on bringing in a couple of WRs with the money you save on Welker in free agency and the draft who can actually provide you with a deep and physical threat as a split end.

Brady gets Welker open? If Brady makes Welker why have no other WRs playing for Brady put up Welker numbers? Why cant 85 have 1 good game?
Oh well, you are entitled to your opinion.

We've been fine at WR in the past pre-Welker. Heck, we won three Super Bowls without. Welker is a talented route runner and a slot receiver at best. We don't really have a true slot receiver role for him any more with our offense.

We are both certainly entitled to an opinion Even if mine's a little harder to see, there are two sides to it. It's better when someone goes against the grain a little! If we all agreed the world would be boring

 

[Deus Irae]

Back in 2007? What's something Belichick said 5 years ago got to do with any situation now? My betting is the Pats see Welker as valuable int he short term. They aren't going to want to pay him too far down the line.

Now you're moving the goalposts:

Brady makes Welker imo.

 

[UK_Pat37]

Now you're moving the goalposts:

Not at all, I still think we'd survive without him. I'm not against re-signing Welker and I've never said I am. Why wouldn't they see short term value? I'm just saying I wouldn't complain if they moved on and used the money saved productively elsewhere (like say, signing Williams on D and evening out the cap balance between O and D a little). If they sing him to an economic deal then great. I don't want to pay him for 4 years though. Past 32 I don't see much value in him.

he'd help your team, but history suggests we can survive without. Brady has won rings with very average receiving corps and came close to going to a 4th Super Bowl in 6 years with pretty much no receiving corps at all.