Coronavirus RESPECTFUL Discussion Only! (Mod edit: Closed)

[lancerman]

I have less than 350 posts in 15 years. That would make me a really useless bot...except for the sarcasm, of course.

That just means you could strike at any moment

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I have less than 350 posts in 15 years. That would make me a really useless bot...except for the sarcasm, of course.

Yet, here we are, in an election year nonetheless.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

I feel like Mrs. Brody in "Jaws" saying it's okay to let the kids in the water, then seeing the picture in the book of the Shark attacking people in a boat before doing a 180 and screaming at the kids to stay out of the water.

That Twitter thread is sobering.

Regards,
Chris

I think a lot of people are downplaying this or looking past it because they are thinking “well, if I get it bad I can go to a hospital and there are good hospitals near me”.

The problem is that when this really hits they (and most people) won’t be able to go to a hospital because there will be no beds and no ventilators.

You can argue with her assumptions about doubling times and percentages that will need this or that, but it is a fact that there are only around a million beds in the whole country and that there are only around 65,000 ventilators (and even fewer ECMO machines) in the whole country.

Lots of people are gonna get shut out of medical care real soon.

China does seem to have it under control but look at what they had to do. Massive (and continuing) shutdowns. And Italy just quarantined a quarter of its population and basically shut down life in the quarantine zone.

“Sobering” is going to be a massive understatement

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Finally, I want to know how much medical care received the case fatality rate estimates are assuming and what the CFR estimates would be assuming no care.

 

[BTTA]

Yeah, the issue isn't the disease itself so much as the death-by-a-thousand-cuts to civil and commercial systems. With family structures are more dependent on single parents than ever, cops, emergency personnel, workers at utility companies etc. etc. won't be able to come to work in record numbers when the schools close down. That means those systems run on skeleton crews, which means all of the less critical stuff doesn't get attended to. Stuff won't get fixed, crime won't get responded to, things won't get delivered, etc. It won't all happen at once, it'll very gradually erode.

The little bit of inside info I've got from friends here who are inside the security walls of government planning is that there may be some success containing this thing initially, because of the summer temps pushing it back. Then when October hits, it'll come roaring back with four full months of perfect weather. So this is just Round One with C19.

I think a lot of people are downplaying this or looking past it because they are thinking “well, if I get it bad I can go to a hospital and there are good hospitals near me”.

The problem is that when this really hits they (and most people) won’t be able to go to a hospital because there will be no beds and no ventilators.

You can argue with her assumptions about doubling times and percentages that will need this or that, but it is a fact that there are only around a million beds in the whole country and that there are only around 65,000 ventilators (and even fewer ECMO machines) in the whole country.

Lots of people are gonna get shut out of medical care real soon.

China does seem to have it under control but look at what they had to do. Massive (and continuing) shutdowns. And Italy just quarantined a quarter of its population and basically shut down life in the quarantine zone.

“Sobering” is going to be a massive understatement

 

[BTTA]

And the health system, led by a suddenly mediocre CDC, has already fallen behind. The first case in DC is a woman who went to the hospital with all the right symptoms, having recently returned from India. She was immediately put in isolation and tested for everything except C19, which all came back negative. The hospital told her they thought she had C19. But the City refused to process a C19 test, because the CDC said she hadn't been in India long enough (6 days rather than a full week).
They kept her in hospital while they tried to win this argument with the DC Health Dept., to no avail. So they let her go.

The DC Health Dept. was simply recognizing that the CDC has far more expertise than they do. There's so much anxiety already about this that common sense was lost in the process. That's just how human beings behave. We'll see a lot more of it. Health systems need to be designed to reduce and remove those kinds of dependencies, and the CDC used to be strong in the regard. But it isn't now.

 

[BTTA]

So, back to the original question. My guess is that the 2020 NFL season will get off to a normal start. Next year's playoffs are more in question.

 

[VegasGuy]

Just joining this thread. My biggest concern about this whole thing is the economy. So many events are being cancelled that help local economies.

A WTA tennis event not far from here in CA was just cancelled. In Ohio last week the biggest fitness trade show in the country was cancelled etc.

It's looking like we are in for a big recession due to this.

 

[Clonamery]

And the health system, led by a suddenly mediocre CDC, has already fallen behind. The first case in DC is a woman who went to the hospital with all the right symptoms, having recently returned from India. She was immediately put in isolation and tested for everything except C19, which all came back negative. The hospital told her they thought she had C19. But the City refused to process a C19 test, because the CDC said she hadn't been in India long enough (6 days rather than a full week).
They kept her in hospital while they tried to win this argument with the DC Health Dept., to no avail. So they let her go.

The DC Health Dept. was simply recognizing that the CDC has far more expertise than they do. There's so much anxiety already about this that common sense was lost in the process. That's just how human beings behave. We'll see a lot more of it. Health systems need to be designed to reduce and remove those kinds of dependencies, and the CDC used to be strong in the regard. But it isn't now.

The CDC has been overwhelmed by the Covfefe-19.

 

[XLIX]

https://twitter.com/lizspecht/status/1236095180459003909

Her logic doesn’t hold because doubling rates don’t work the way she thinks. Assume 100 people have it one day and 6 days later 200 people have it. That doesn’t mean it will only take 6 days to double from 1 million to 2 million. It is much easier to double anything when the numbers are low. That applies to money, time and yes, even viruses.

According to her logic, every single person in the world will have it by mid-July.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Her logic doesn’t hold because doubling rates don’t work the way she thinks. Assume 100 people have it one day and 6 days later 200 people have it. That doesn’t mean it will only take 6 days to double from 1 million to 2 million. It is much easier to double anything when the numbers are low. That applies to money, time and yes, even viruses.

According to her logic, every single person in the world will have it by mid-July.

That is certainly true. R0 must bend down one way or the other and so there will be a peak and then decay. The question is how high the peak will be.

However, the number on beds are correct. Also, from what I've seen elsewhere, there are only 65,000 ventilators in the whole country.

Finally, the American Hospital Association had a presentation last week where one of their presenters was telling them to prepare for 4,900,000 hospital admissions and 1,300,000 ICU admissions over the course of the next two months. (And 480,000 deaths). That was based on an estimate of 30% of the country catching it over the course of the next two months.

 

[XLIX]

That is certainly true. R0 must bend down one way or the other and so there will be a peak and then decay. The question is how high the peak will be.

However, the number on beds are correct. Also, from what I've seen elsewhere, there are only 65,000 ventilators in the whole country.

Finally, the American Hospital Association had a presentation last week where one of their presenters was telling them to prepare for 4,900,000 hospital admissions and 1,300,000 ICU admissions over the course of the next two months. (And 480,000 deaths). That was based on an estimate of 30% of the country catching it over the course of the next two months.

This is a textbook case of one guy giving a worst case scenario and the media hops on it as if it were the scientific consensus.

I do not believe for a single second 30% of the country will have this and almost 500,000 Americans will die in the next 2 months. I don’t care what his credentials are, that prediction is beyond moronic.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This is a textbook case of one guy giving a worst case scenario and the media hops on it as if it were the scientific consensus.

I do not believe for a single second 30% of the country will have this and almost 500,000 Americans will die in the next 2 months. I don’t care what his credentials are, that prediction is beyond moronic.

China has had it for two months and has 3,000 deaths. So the US will have 500,000 over two months?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Her logic doesn’t hold because doubling rates don’t work the way she thinks. Assume 100 people have it one day and 6 days later 200 people have it. That doesn’t mean it will only take 6 days to double from 1 million to 2 million. It is much easier to double anything when the numbers are low. That applies to money, time and yes, even viruses.

According to her logic, every single person in the world will have it by mid-July.

Have you considered the idea that she’s an idiot? I mean, she is citing that “studies” confirm her exponential doubling rate, yet the Coronavirus itself is clearly, unequivocally, not doubling like that.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

China has had it for two months and has 3,000 deaths. So the US will have 500,000 over two months?

Do you think the US will be able to lock down millions of people like China did?

 

[QuantumMechanic]

McCann on some various legal issues around Zero Gate:
https://www.si.com/nba/2020/03/08/coronavirus-sports-job-losses-sponsorship-lawsuits

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Do you think the US will be able to lock down millions of people like China did?

Will they? I’d like to get your thoughts.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Will they? I’d like to get your thoughts.

I'm only saying that unless you think the US will be able to have comparable lockdowns to China (and BTW those lockdowns are still ongoing) I don't think pointing at China's numbers and saying "it only hit around 100,000 cases" is very comparable to what may happen here.

 

[TB_Helmet]

This is a textbook case of one guy giving a worst case scenario and the media hops on it as if it were the scientific consensus.

I do not believe for a single second 30% of the country will have this and almost 500,000 Americans will die in the next 2 months. I don’t care what his credentials are, that prediction is beyond moronic.

I'm not sure if 500,000 people will die (at least I hope not) but if you relax the time threshold a bit, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that 30% of the country will get this over, say, the next six months, unless pretty drastic containment measures are taken (which is unlikely to happen, at least not on the level of China or even Italy).

30% of the country gets a cold each year (at least) and that's with everyone having antibodies to most rhinovirus strains. Nobody has any antibodies to COVID19. While it spreads differently than the cold it's highly infectious as we've seen.

 

[Kontradiction]

Airplane ticket prices are low THOOOOO.