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Coronavirus RESPECTFUL Discussion Only! (Mod edit: Closed)


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Also, the consensus estimates are 20-30% got 2009 H1N1. And this appears to be rather more contagious.
 
Whoa. Italy just locked down the entire country. Public gatherings banned nationwide. No travel except for transport of essential goods, health, and emergencies.
 
Whoa. Italy just locked down the entire country. Public gatherings banned nationwide. No travel except for transport of essential goods, health, and emergencies.
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I'm not sure if 500,000 people will die (at least I hope not) but if you relax the time threshold a bit, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that 30% of the country will get this over, say, the next six months, unless pretty drastic containment measures are taken (which is unlikely to happen, at least not on the level of China or even Italy).

30% of the country gets a cold each year (at least) and that's with everyone having antibodies to most rhinovirus strains. Nobody has any antibodies to COVID19. While it spreads differently than the cold it's highly infectious as we've seen.
30% of the country gets a cold because there’s a couple hundred strains of the common cold.

No way 30% of the country gets this.
 
30% of the country gets a cold because there’s a couple hundred strains of the common cold.

No way 30% of the country gets this.
When did you become an expert, Wolfpack? Does the federal government know to reach out to you so they can glean some of your excellent insights on the matter?
 
30% of the country gets a cold because there’s a couple hundred strains of the common cold.

No way 30% of the country gets this.

It's more likely than not, that some posters on this board will probably die of this virus. We have NO immunity to it, it has an R0 factor of 6, and mortality rate of around 3.4%. When you factor in exponential growth... it's just not good.
 
30% of the country gets a cold because there’s a couple hundred strains of the common cold.

No way 30% of the country gets this.
20-30% of the country got the single 2009 H1N1 strain in 2009-10. Why so sure 30% won't get this, which is more contagious than that.
 
Yeah my sister got the word Sunday night that a co-worker tested positive for COVID-19 so everyone in her building is telecommuting for the time being. It's an IT section of a Long Island healthcare company (Northwell) so not a big transition but things can change just like that. And I'm sure most of the 200 figure they're going to get it....and then there's the people that they've been in contact with...and...
 
Yeah my sister got the word Sunday night that a co-worker tested positive for COVID-19 so everyone in her building is telecommuting for the time being. It's an IT section of a Long Island healthcare company (Northwell) so not a big transition but things can change just like that. And I'm sure most of the 200 figure they're going to get it....and then there's the people that they've been in contact with...and...
Yeah, I'm two degrees of separation from three confirmed and unrelated cases.

Edit: In two of them, the workplaces are pretty much on lockdown with everyone ordered to work from home.

Regards,
Chris
 
Gotta love good epidemiology talk on patsfan.
 
The odds are that at this point, I've had direct contact with dozens of people who have it and don't know it. Not that there's anything unusual about me. In fact, I haven't even travelled in the past couple of weeks.

Here's a first hand account of a woman who tried to get tested and couldn't:

I want to share with everyone my story of potentially having COVID-19 and how our health care system is completely broken in dealing with this. If you think people are getting tested and being isolated from the rest of the public, think again. Think there are no cases in your community? Think again. If my story is any indication, this thing is way out of control already -- we just aren’t testing people so we don’t know about it.

I will start with my travel history. On Sunday, February 23, I began a trip to Thailand for a meeting for work. I didn’t read the news that morning because I was busy getting packed and out of the door. My first flight left from Dulles and landed in Seoul 14 hours later (it’s now Monday, 2/24). There was no wi-fi on the flight and so it wasn’t until I landed that I knew that South Korea was experiencing an outbreak. I bought a mask in the airport, got some food and coffee, and then boarded my plane to Bangkok. I spent five days in a meeting in Bangkok washing hands religiously. On Saturday 2/29 I began my trip back. My trip had been rerouted back through London so that I would avoid South Korea. I spent the night in London near the airport and returned to Dulles on Sunday March 1st.

You may remember that on Saturday there was a big announcement from Trump saying that they would be taking increased measures to ensure people coming from South Korea would be evaluated and tested when necessary. So, I was a little worried I would have trouble getting back into the country. Every other country I had flown through they made announcements on the plane as we were landing. In Thailand there were public health officials randomly testing people coming off of my flight and in all other countries there were clear signs of what to do if you don’t feel well directing you to people to talk to. In London, public health people even boarded the plane before we could disembark. When I got to Dulles, there was nothing. I didn’t see a single sign, there were no announcements, and while I was looking, I didn’t see anyone checking anyone’s health or a place where people could ask someone a question.

I was looking because toward the end of that last flight, the lymph nodes in my neck started to swell and that is usually a sign I’m about to be sick. I called my ex-husband to ask him to keep the kids for an extra day to be on the safe side and made a quick stop by the grocery store to get some food for the week.

On Monday I was achy, had a headache, had chills and generally felt horrible. But, no fever or chest congestion and so I wasn’t too worried just thinking I had picked up a cold travelling. On Tuesday when I woke up, I got more concerned because there was now congestion in my chest, and I was coughing and having shortness of breath. I called my asthma doctor who told me to go to the ER because they didn’t have the capacity to deal with it and they thought I should be tested. I understood they were asking people to not just show up anywhere but to call first to let them know you are coming. I called GW hospital and they said not to come because they don’t have the tests. They told me that I should call the DC Department of Health.
I called the Department of Health. The man on the phone took a detailed history of my symptoms and my travel history and said that the shortness of breath could be from my asthma, I don’t have a fever, and because I’m low risk I don’t qualify to be tested. I was surprised to be called low-risk with my travel history. I know there are people at greater risk, and so I let it go. I asked if I should continue to self-quarantine and he said that limiting my interactions would be good and if I needed to go out wear a mask and wash hands a lot. I asked for how long and he said for 14 days since I was in South Korea. He also said to call back if my symptoms worsened or changed in any way. He said they would keep monitoring my case.

Over the course of the week, my symptoms would get better and then worse. I didn’t feel like I was on death’s door and felt much like I have felt when I’ve had the flu but with no head congestion. On Wednesday night I was up with stomach cramps and diarrhea, and I also found out that one of my work colleagues was not feeling well. She is in rural Indonesia where testing isn’t possible and so there is no way to know if she has it. So, on Thursday morning I called back to Department of Health and the woman I talked to was clearly not familiar with my case and seemed to have no way to find my earlier call. I went through everything again, and told her of the new symptoms and my colleague being sick. She said that I haven’t been in contact with anyone who has it (she doesn’t care that my colleague is sick because she hasn’t been tested), and that I’m low risk. She said that if I feel I need to be tested, the way to do that is to go to my doctor and my doctor can recommend I be tested. I asked her whether I should extend my self-quarantine since I am now displaying symptoms, and she said no. That I don’t need to self-quarantine, and that I should treat it just like if I had a cold or the flu. I can go out in public just try not to cough on anyone and wash my hands a lot. I was stunned.

I called my doctor again who told me to go to urgent care or the emergency room, but they didn’t have capacity to deal with it. I really wanted to avoid the emergency room and didn’t think they would test me if I went so I didn’t go. I also thought going into a room full of sick people just wasn’t that great of an idea or either of us. On Friday, a friend contacted the director of the Department of Health who told me to go to an urgent care facility (even listing a few). So, instead of showing up I called a few, and they told me that they were not equipped to handle this and that I should go to the ER. I was then told by my friend that the director said they are doing testing at GW hospital’s emergency room and I should go there. That if a doctor thought I should be tested, they would test me there.

So, on Friday at 2:15, I arrived at the ER at GW. I told them I had been in South Korea. There clearly was someone else there in the same situation. They had me take a seat and then called me over to the triage nurse. She took my history and symptoms and told me they needed to put me in isolation. I was already wearing a mask but she also put gloves on my hands. They didn’t have a room right away and so put me in an area of the waiting room that was away from others and told the security guard not to let anyone else sit there. I was beginning to feel like I was in the right place where people were taking it seriously. Soon they called me back to a room. I saw a doctor and they said they were going to do a viral screen to rule out everything. It’s an ER, it took a long time, but I was in isolation thinking someone was taking me seriously and I was feeling good about that. After a few hours the doctor poked her head in to say I had tested positive for Flu B and they would be discharging me soon and get rest and liquids. About a half hour later, she came back in to apologize that she had mixed up my room with the room next door (I believe there were 3 other people there also being assessed for Covid-19 at the time), and that my flu test was actually negative as were the other things they test for and so now they would do a test for Covid-19. Time passed and I didn’t hear anything. After several hours the doctor came back in and told me that she was very sorry but the department of health was refusing to run the test. They said I wasn’t in South Korea long enough. She was furious. She said she was still trying to get them to change their mind. She got the chief of staff involved. She kept trying. Nothing. The doctor told me she thought there was a high likelihood that I have it based on my travel history, symptoms, the colleague that is sick, and all other tests coming back negative. But, without the test she couldn’t tell me for sure, and her hands were tied. She asked me to please keep self-quarantining and to come back if my symptoms worsened so that they could at least treat the symptoms. At 11:45, I was discharged and went home.

Do I have Covid-19? Who knows. Do we have a broken public healthcare system that is utterly failing during a health pandemic? Absolutely.
 
For anyone who played the original Deus Ex:




:)
 
It's more likely than not, that some posters on this board will probably die of this virus.
That's a statistic that I realize is a scary possibility...was thinking the same thing the other night when it comes to people on here/family/friends, especially considering many of us are certainly either in or approaching the demographic this tends to affect the most :(
 
Put it this way. If the death rate is 2% (hopefully it’ll be lower), then if it runs through a family of 4 there is a 7.8% chance that at least one of them will die. If a circle of 10 friends all get it there is a 19.3% chance that at least one will die.
 
Put it this way. If the death rate is 2% (hopefully it’ll be lower), then if it runs through a family of 4 there is a 7.8% chance that at least one of them will die. If a circle of 10 friends all get it there is a 19.3% chance that at least one will die.

I understand that you’re making a statistical point here, but there’s not a 7.8% chance that one will die. If they’re all under 50 (and there are two kids), the odds are probably closer to 1%. Still no children dead and healthy adults under 60 are not at high risk.

May want to consider extreme protection measures for the 60+ portion of the population since the high risk demographic has already been isolated. The death tolls are clustered within elderly and already compromised immune systems, so it isn’t really as random as taking a group of 4 or 10 and applying math. The nursing home in Washington demonstrates this.
 
The WHO is now estimating the overall death rate at 3.4% :(

Daltry actually says over 4%. Townshend says bollox, princess margaret is in the next room mate. Keith Moon could not be reached for comment. Everybody forgot to ask Entwistle.

Cf. liner notes, "Magic Bug," "Hacking Jack," "Talkin' About Second Generation," "How Many Friends," "Quarantinephobia," "Epidemic Front," "I Can't Exhale"

NBA has sent a memo to teams to draw up plans for zero gate.

I'm telling you, the big question is going to somehow be how the Patriots got away with ZeroGate.

Enough of the comic relief.

So, we've all gotten a snoutful of how the market is pricing things. God knows what the Saudi-Russian spat was about. But hey, gas is cheap?

Eh, above my pay grade :D
 
That's a statistic that I realize is a scary possibility...was thinking the same thing the other night when it comes to people on here/family/friends, especially considering many of us are certainly either in or approaching the demographic this tends to affect the most :(

Believe me Ian, I was very hesitant to type that, but it's a very possible outcome. I refresh that JH tracker, and I see the red dots getting bigger and more plentiful I think the same thing. I take care of my elderly Mom, and I'm more concerned about bringing it home and getting her sick. My job requires traveling around Western MA, and interacting with dozens of people. I've become hyper vigilant about hygiene, and what I'm doing every minute of the day.

And it's not even the virus we have to worry about. Disruption of supply chain, enforced quarantines, desperate people that didn't have the means to prepare early looking for supplies, and the healthcare system being overrun. All sorts of potential outcomes are possible, its so uncertain right now. I'm hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst.

I hope I'm wrong, never in my life have I wanted to be wrong.
 
San Jose Sharks will not be hosting games through the end of March. Other events at the arena are on hold until then as well.

Regards,
Chris
 
30% of the country gets a cold because there’s a couple hundred strains of the common cold.

No way 30% of the country gets this.

Why does it matter how many strains of rhinovirus there are? We have some basic level of immunity to most of them due to prior exposure and existing antibodies.

We have literally no immunity to this single strain of COVID19 prior to initial exposure. If there’s not some level of containment, it will spread as it pleases. If we don’t hit 30% infection it’ll be because society took some measures to prevent it from getting to that level.
 
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