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Content Post Idle thoughts - a beginning......

2022 Patriots Season:
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Mon
Dec 12th
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This has an opening post with good commentary and information, which we definitely recommend reading.

PatsFan2

Pro Bowl Player
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Brady was never a power thrower with a strong arm. He was and always will be a dinker and dunker...he's just an accurate dinker and dunker. Even his deep throws are lobs (take forever to reach their target), but they are accurate. The arm talent of Mahomes, Allen, etc. is night and day compared to Brady’s…
Compared the the Mac's they are out of this world.
 

The Brandon Five

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I'm not disagreeing that it is stronger than Mac's, but let's not put Brady in the Mahomes, Allen, Rodgers, Marino, Elway arm strength category. Brady's strength at QB is decision-making and accuracy
Since he went to the Bucs Tom has been in the Top 5 of long-ball QBs.

He was #3 in passes over 20 yards and #4 in passes over 40 yards in 2020.
He was #1 in passes over 20 yards and #5 in passes over 40 yards in 2021.
 

MAC10

Dinker and Dunker
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Compared the the Mac's they are out of this world.

100% agree

Since he went to the Bucs Tom has been in the Top 5 of long-ball QBs.

He was #3 in passes over 20 yards and #4 in passes over 40 yards in 2020.
He was #1 in passes over 20 yards and #5 in passes over 40 yards in 2021.

He throws accurate deep balls but they don't have a ton of zip (velocity) on them, at least on the level of other QBs




DO you really think Brady is going to beat Mahomes or Allen in an arm wrestling contest?
 
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PatsFan2

Pro Bowl Player
2019 Weekly Picks Winner
Since he went to the Bucs Tom has been in the Top 5 of long-ball QBs.

He was #3 in passes over 20 yards and #4 in passes over 40 yards in 2020.
He was #1 in passes over 20 yards and #5 in passes over 40 yards in 2021.
Didn't realize the Bucs have a rejuvenated Julio Jones to go along with Mike Evans and Godwin. Jones and Evans on the Outsides yikes! pitch and catch the Bucs and Brady are going to make some noise in the NFC.
 

ArchAngel007

Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal
Didn't realize the Bucs have a rejuvenated Julio Jones to go along with Mike Evans and Godwin. Jones and Evans on the Outsides yikes! pitch and catch the Bucs and Brady are going to make some noise in the NFC.
They're all prone to injury. They play in the NFC so not many great teams at the top at least how it looks right now
 

The Brandon Five

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100% agree



He throws accurate deep balls but they don't have a ton of zip (velocity) on them.




DO you really think Brady is going to beat Mahomes or Allen in an arm wrestling contest?

Probably not Allen, but I think Mahomes is a toss-up. Patrick isn't that big.

sekrvmg1fzoccpxzpbux.jpgJosh-Allen-in-the-gym-1.jpgtom-brady-1651592519.png
 

VJCPatriot

Pro Bowl Player
Brady was never a power thrower with a strong arm. He was and always will be a dinker and dunker...he's just an accurate dinker and dunker. Even his deep throws are lobs (take forever to reach their target), but they are accurate. The arm talent of Mahomes, Allen, etc. is night and day compared to Brady’s…
Let's put this myth to rest.

It's so easy to throw around terms like 'zip' or 'dink and dunk' in support of an unproven bias because those are not based on measurements that can be scientifically proven.

Instead let's use the actual scientific measurement called ball velocity.

Poster's example of a Quarterback with 'great arm strength' is Patrick Mahomes. Many would agree that Patrick Mahomes has one of the strongest arms in the NFL. But that's just based on the 'eye test' right?

Well no, there's a piece of tech called a juggs gun that can measure the speed of a ball in flight. Originally used in baseball to measure pitcher velocity, it's an equally valid method to objectively measure the speed of a football.

So how fast does Patrick Mahomes actually throw a football? What is his ball velocity?

In a publicly recorded competition in 2017, Patrick Mahomes launched the football at a recorded ball velocity of 62 mph. Pretty impressive.

In contrast, Tom Brady, he of the 'supposed' weak arm, hit a recorded ball velocity of 61 mph in 2019.


So not only has Tom Brady been among the top 5 best passers of the long ball in the past two years when counting passes of 20+ yards and 40+ yards- 2020, 2021, his 'fastball' tops out at just 1mph less than Patrick Mahomes fastest recorded ball velocity.

I am unimpressed by posters attempts to revive old myths and unscientific terms such as 'dink and dunk'. It's clear that when Tom Brady needs to rip the football, at a top speed of 61 mph, he can do so, and it's not some wobbly duck lob, that football gets downfield in a hurry.

In terms of combine measurements, Josh Allen leads the pack with the highest officially recorded measurement at 62 mph in 2018. Patrick Mahomes measured in at 60 mph, although we've seen in competitions that he can rip it a little faster when going for personal bests.

So do the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have stronger arms than Tom Brady? Of course, they do, objectively speaking 62 mph > 61 mph. But is it enough of a difference on average that one can objectively call out Tom Brady as having a 'weak arm' or being purely a 'dink and dunk' QB? No, that argument is patently and objectively ridiculous. MYTH BUSTED.
 
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captain stone

Hall of Fame Poster
Here’s the thing, though. The Pats no longer seem to be running the type of offense that suits Mac Jones. Pretty tough to be Derek Carr in whatever they were running Sunday.

I really thought that Bill O'Brien was returning here as soon as McD accepted the LV job; the transition would've been near-perfectly seamless...

What we have now, unfortunately, more closely resembles the complete opposite: neophyte coaches replacing experienced coaches from last year... 80% of the OL playing a different position than last year... different blocking styles than last year being introduced... The most consistent play-maker being available for only 2 4th-quarter snaps total... Not exactly putting Mac in the best position to succeed, that's for sure...

He still needs to understand when a certain look isn't right (Parker-Howard in the EZ) and adjust accordingly... Making a better throw would've helped too, and that's entirely on him...
 

MAC10

Dinker and Dunker
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
Let's put this myth to rest.

It's so easy to throw around terms like zip in support of an unproven bias because those are not based on measurements that can be scientifically proven.

Instead let's use the actual scientific measurement called ball velocity.

Poster's example of a Quarterback with 'great arm strength' is Patrick Mahomes. Many would agree that Patrick Mahomes has one of the strongest arms in the NFL. But that's just based on the 'eye test' right?

Well no, there's a piece of tech called a juggs gun that can measure the speed of a ball in flight. Originally used in baseball to measure pitcher velocity, it's an equally valid method to objectively measure the speed of a football.

So how fast does Patrick Mahomes actually throw a football? What is his ball velocity?

In a publicly recorded competition in 2017, Patrick Mahomes launched the football at a recorded ball velocity of 62 mph. Pretty impressive.

In contrast, Tom Brady, he of the 'supposed' weak arm, hit a recorded ball velocity of 61 mph in 2019.


So not only has Tom Brady been among the top 5 best passers of the long ball in the past two years when counting passes of 20+ yards and 40+ yards- 2020, 2021, his 'fastball' tops out at just 1mph less than Patrick Mahomes fastest recorded ball velocity.

I am unimpressed by posters attempts to revive old myths and unscientific terms such as 'dink and dunk'. It's clear that when Tom Brady needs to rip the football, at a top speed of 61 mph, he can do so, and it's not some wobbly duck lob, that football gets downfield in a hurry.

In terms of combine measurements, Josh Allen leads the pack with the highest officially recorded measurement at 62 mph in 2018. Patrick Mahomes measured in at 60 mph, although we've seen in competitions that he can rip it a little faster when going for personal bests.

So do the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes have stronger arms than Tom Brady? Of course, they do, objectively speaking 62 mphs > 61 mph. But is it enough of a difference on average that one can objectively call out Tom Brady as having a 'weak arm' or being purely a 'dink and dunk' QB? No, that argument is patently and objectively ridiculous.

OK, first of all, Brady has been known to post misleading things. He posted a video of him throwing the ball repeatedly into a Juggs machine, which has since been proven false (because experts say it's impossible to do). Second, as far as the velocity of his throws is concerned, we never actually saw Brady throw the ball and then have the velocity of the throw concurrently measured. He just posted a picture of a radar instrument that said 61 MPH on his IG story. With the Mahomes experiment, on the other hand, those measurements were taken at the same time as him throwing the ball. Moreover, the instrument NFLN used to measure Mahomes' ball speed is different than the one Brady supposedly used. Remember when we faulted the NFL for using two different gauges to measure the deflation of footballs? Even assuming Brady actually did throw the ball at 61 MPH, we can’t compare it scientifically to Mahomes since the instruments were different.
 
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n6249c

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Patriots lost badly to the Dolphins, but I put that more on the OL and offense as a whole rather than on just the QB. Hard to make throws from your back or without time to throw it or a clean pocket.

As far as arm strength goes, it's true that it can get better. So I'm not worried about it. Drew Brees had a fantastic career with not the strongest arm. But you need to compensate for that by being very precise and decisive with your passes so you get the ball out sooner before the defenders can react.

I'm just not surprised that the Pats lost.
The Pats offense looked like it was going to be bad early. They weren't click in training camp or preseason.
Did you think they were suddenly going to flip the switch in Miami because reasons?



I'd say the coaching looked to be a negative factor on Sunday. The Patriots offensive play calling failed to establish a rhythm in any way shape or form. A lot of the blame has to be laid at the feet on the man calling those plays. Usually you script your first 20 plays and if the game plan is working you should see results early. Instead we saw pretty much nothing positive at all and were getting skunked 17-0 at halftime.



Mac doesn't display any offensive instincts running the football. Just because you can run with above average speed in a straight line, doesn't transform you into an escape the pocket, make plays happen with your feet QB.

He did commit the turnover we can't afford.



Who's to blame on that play, the QB, the call, the WR, or all three?



OL looked terrible. Couldn't protect their QB well enough against Miami. We're just lucky the xray of his back injury came back negative. I probably wouldn't risk Mac vs Pittsburgh. Let Hoyer or Zappe handle the snaps instead. You have backups for a reason.



The defense did fine enough under the circumstances. Not great, but certainly not bad. The offense sputtering did not help us in the field position battle. Tyreek Hill and Waddle are who we thought they were. The leading receiving threats for Miami, but I wouldn't say they 'torched' the defense as much as feared, 163 yards and 1 TD between the two of them.

Although I'm not so worried about the defensive unit, I don't think the D is good enough to carry a bad, sputtering offense, which is what we have right now.

We're starting 0-1 in the worst 4 game stretch to start the season. 0-4 is possible, but I'm thinking we need to steal a win somewhere to even have hope for a winning season.

1-3 you can come back from, we saw the Patriots do it last season. 0-4, it's pretty much over because that means everything has snowballed, you can kiss the playoffs goodbye.

I love your optimism. Not only is the glass totally empty, the well ran dry and there’s a drought.

But…

”Usually you script your first 20 plays and if the game plan is working you should see results early. Instead we saw pretty much nothing positive at all…”

Have you forgotten that Mac threw an INT early in the game? it was after the Patriots drove effectively, and were threatening to score. Seems that’s contrary to your narrative so you probably conveniently forgot about it.

also the first scripted drive of the second half went pretty well, scored a TD. Then poor execution on the next couple of possessions derailed things.

So much for your credibility.
 

VJCPatriot

Pro Bowl Player
I love your optimism. Not only is the glass totally empty, the well ran dry and there’s a drought.
Who claimed this was an optimistic post? It was an objective summary of a game where the Patriots were thoroughly defeated. Not even close.

But…

”Usually you script your first 20 plays and if the game plan is working you should see results early. Instead we saw pretty much nothing positive at all…”

Have you forgotten that Mac threw an INT early in the game? it was after the Patriots drove effectively, and were threatening to score. Seems that’s contrary to your narrative so you probably conveniently forgot about it.

When did an interception become a positive play? Strange times we live in. By most objective measurements, an interception is a negative play, and the fault belongs to the offense when they generate negative plays.

also the first scripted drive of the second half went pretty well, scored a TD. Then poor execution on the next couple of possessions derailed things.

So much for your credibility.

How does a drive in the SECOND HALF have anything to do with the first 20 scripted plays of the game? It doesn't.

Let's have the objective facts about the game.

Patriots offense 271 yards, now stands at 25th ranked offense in the NFL.
Patriots offense 7 points scored, now ranks as the 31st ranked offense in the NFL.

This game report is an autopsy, nothing more, stats brought to you by ESPN.com.
 

Thelonious

2nd Team Getting Their First Start
Lots of trees. Let's look at the forest:

1) Bill Belichick is at this point a lousy GM with fatal blindspots when it comes to receivers and other high-impact skill players. Bill The GM should be fired. I hope the Krafts have what it takes to act on this obvious fact. If Bill the Coach decides he won't stay on the job without Bill Belichick the GM on the job, fire both of 'em.

2) It is time to put Bill the Coach on probation. If we do not see a DIRECTION and improvement, it is time consider letting him go. When you are making as much dough as Belichick is, "What have you done for me lately" is 100% a reasonable question. It isn't as if Bill has not applied just this sort of cold, bottom-line approach in dealing with players in decline over the years. I have been a Pats fan since the early 60's. For EVERYBODY, the time to get the boot inevitably comes.
 

VJCPatriot

Pro Bowl Player
OK, first of all, Brady has been known to post misleading things.
I don't care about your distrust of Tom Brady. As you've already demonstrated to everybody here on the board your 'emotional' attitude towards TB12 is clearly based on some kind of personal bias. All I care about are the objective facts for the purposes of your argument.

The juggs gun doesn't lie, 61 is a number greater than 60 but less than 62. As for the circumstances of the throw, was it a catchable throw when Brady was throwing his hardest to reach that number? Doesn't matter. We know he can hit 61 on the gun throwing a football.

For comparison let's look at this recorded competition where Patrick Mahomes hit a sizzling top speed of 62 mph.



Was that last ball that Mahomes threw for 62 mph catchable? Hard to say, it went well over the head of the receiver, but maybe if the receiver was 40 yards down the field that becomes a catchable ball. All I care about is the radar gun says he hit 62 mph. That achievement is legit. I believe Patrick Mahomes can throw 62 mph as proved by the objective recorded technology of the juggs gun.
 

VJCPatriot

Pro Bowl Player
Lots of trees. Let's look at the forest:

1) Bill Belichick is at this point a lousy GM with fatal blindspots when it comes to receivers and other high-impact skill players. Bill The GM should be fired. I hope the Krafts have what it takes to act on this obvious fact. If Bill the Coach decides he won't stay on the job without Bill Belichick the GM on the job, fire both of 'em.

As far as the draft, BB the GM is hurting BB the head coach. I would prefer it if someone else takes over the drafting duties. As far as free agency, he usually still manages to find a nugget here and there each year, so I'd say he's doing passably ok there. His last free agent frenzy got us Judon, which was a great find, but he also brought in relative duds for the money so far like Agholor and Jhonnu Smith.

2) It is time to put Bill the Coach on probation. If we do not see a DIRECTION and improvement, it is time consider letting him go. When you are making as much dough as Belichick is, "What have you done for me lately" is 100% a reasonable question. It isn't as if Bill has not applied just this sort of cold, bottom-line approach in dealing with players in decline over the years. I have been a Pats fan since the early 60's. For EVERYBODY, the time to get the boot inevitably comes.

BB's biggest flaw is his own arrogance. That's the same type of arrogance that cost us a Superbowl when without explanation he benched one of our best defensive backs, Malcolm Butler, for the entirety of the Superbowl whilst our secondary was getting TORCHED by Nick Foles and the Eagles.

BB's arrogance is why he decided he didn't need an offensive coordinator after Josh McDaniels left to become head coach of the Raiders. His arrogance is likely going to cost Mac Jones in a crucial sophomore developmental year.

And if this snowballs into an 0-4 start, BB's arrogance will likely cost us a playoff spot.

Is BB's job at stake now? Too early to tell. But the first 4 games are going to be crucial. If we end up 1-3 or even worse 0-4, BB will land in the hotseat and deservedly so.

PS: Weird coincidence, but remember how BB brought in the 'mastermind' behind the 31st ranked Giants offense in Joe Judge to be Mac's QB coach? -- Guess what? Patriots are now ranked 31st in points scored in the NFL. Seems like poetic justice. Or even worse, a predictable result. I mean how could BB not see this coming? Did Joe Judge give a 'great interview' like N'Keal Harry? BB really needs to review his hiring practices if that's his only criteria. Hey BB did you consider for example a person's job performance at his last job really kind of matters a lot!?
 
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MAC10

Dinker and Dunker
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
I don't care about your distrust of Tom Brady. As you've already demonstrated to everybody here on the board your 'emotional' attitude towards TB12 is clearly based on some kind of personal bias. All I care about are the objective facts for the purposes of your argument.

The juggs gun doesn't lie, 61 is a number greater than 60 but less than 62. As for the circumstances of the throw, was it a catchable throw when Brady was throwing his hardest to reach that number? Doesn't matter. We know he can hit 61 on the gun throwing a football.

For comparison let's look at this recorded competition where Patrick Mahomes hit a sizzling top speed of 62 mph.



Was that last ball that Mahomes threw for 62 mph catchable? Hard to say, it went well over the head of the receiver, but maybe if the receiver was 40 yards down the field that becomes a catchable ball. All I care about is the radar gun says he hit 62 mph. That achievement is legit. I believe Patrick Mahomes can throw 62 mph as proved by the objective recorded technology of the juggs gun.


You talk about "science," and when I prove to you that you can't compare the two experiments scientifically unless they are done in a controlled environment you get upset...how about addressing my concerns about your comparison?


This is a list of current QBs and their arm strength ranking. That's not even including greats like Elway, Marino, Manning, etc. Brady might not even be top 20 in NFL history in this category.

Arm strength​

This category is all about the biggest arms in the NFL. Pass velocity and the amount of zip a QB can put on a pass were factors in the ranking, as was the ability to hit the deep ball. Who are the best quarterbacks throwing the ball vertically and driving it into windows with authority?

1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
2. Josh Allen, Bills
3. Aaron Rodgers, Packers
4. Matthew Stafford, Rams
5. Russell Wilson, Seahawks
6. Justin Herbert, Chargers
7. Deshaun Watson, Texans*
8. Ryan Tannehill, Titans
9. Kyler Murray, Cardinals
10. Baker Mayfield, Browns

Best of the best:
There is an effortlessness to the way in which Mahomes can seemingly flick the football 50 yards down the field without setting his feet or coming to balance. But arm strength without accuracy is fool's gold. Mahomes not only can throw the football about as far as he'd like, but he can throw it where he'd like it to go. The Chiefs' signal-caller ranks third all time in NFL history in passing yards per attempt. -- Yates

Biggest surprise: I'm surprised that Allen didn't end up No. 1 here. Sure, Mahomes throws the prettier deep ball, but if we're just assessing arm strength, Allen's cannon is indisputable. -- Kimes

Riser to watch: Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence didn't make the top 10 because we haven't yet seen him take an NFL snap. But there's a reason that this kid was the consensus No. 1 prospect for the 2021 class since he was a freshman at Clemson -- he has some of the best arm talent we've seen in the past 20 years. And there's no question that Lawrence will make this list next season. The real question is just how high he'll be ranked. -- McFarland

Snubbed: New England's Cam Newton feels like an odd omission given his reputation, but a relentless string of injuries, including shoulder issues, have sapped him of the arm strength of his youth. But a pair of rookies -- Lawrence and the 49ers' Trey Lance -- have a good case for at least the No. 10 spot, if not higher. Lance, in particular, has a special blend of velocity and downfield distance that comes out of his hand with ease, not unlike Herbert's. -- Schatz/Klassen


Others who received at least one vote: Dak Prescott, Cam Newton, Trey Lance, Drew Lock, Carson Wentz, Trevor Lawrence, Matt Ryan, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, Tom Brady and Derek Carr
 
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TomPatriot

PatsFans.com Supporter
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I really thought that Bill O'Brien was returning here as soon as McD accepted the LV job; the transition would've been near-perfectly seamless...

What we have now, unfortunately, more closely resembles the complete opposite: neophyte coaches replacing experienced coaches from last year... 80% of the OL playing a different position than last year... different blocking styles than last year being introduced... The most consistent play-maker being available for only 2 4th-quarter snaps total... Not exactly putting Mac in the best position to succeed, that's for sure...

He still needs to understand when a certain look isn't right (Parker-Howard in the EZ) and adjust accordingly... Making a better throw would've helped too, and that's entirely on him...

I agree on BOB. I thought it was a done deal after JM went to LV and took coaches with him. Not sure why BB is doing this MP/JJ thing. Is Kraft telling him he needs to save money on coaches? I mean, I doubt it, but wtf?

The Parker-Howard play was an example of playing into the opponent’s strength without making it a weakness first. That play is on Parker in part. He has to go get the ball. Still, it’s a helluva lot to ask him to beat one of the better NFL CBs who also played against him hundreds of times in practice.
 

Ian

Administrator
ADMINISTRATOR
I don't care about your distrust of Tom Brady. As you've already demonstrated to everybody here on the board your 'emotional' attitude towards TB12 is clearly based on some kind of personal bias. All I care about are the objective facts for the purposes of your argument.

The juggs gun doesn't lie, 61 is a number greater than 60 but less than 62. As for the circumstances of the throw, was it a catchable throw when Brady was throwing his hardest to reach that number? Doesn't matter. We know he can hit 61 on the gun throwing a football.

For comparison let's look at this recorded competition where Patrick Mahomes hit a sizzling top speed of 62 mph.



Was that last ball that Mahomes threw for 62 mph catchable? Hard to say, it went well over the head of the receiver, but maybe if the receiver was 40 yards down the field that becomes a catchable ball. All I care about is the radar gun says he hit 62 mph. That achievement is legit. I believe Patrick Mahomes can throw 62 mph as proved by the objective recorded technology of the juggs gun.

You need to understand that @MAC10 moves the goal posts in these conversations far faster than anyone. It's like playing whack-a-mole, you'll beat down one argument and he'll pull out one of the many more he has in his pockets and move on to that, until you come up with a rebuttal and he'll switch it up on the move again. It's quite the skill, and he just outlasts the mental energy required to keep it going. I've already gone back and looked at posts from his early days, so I know this is just a schtick. Although why he keeps it going (and keeps mentioning the Super Bowls we lost and making us relive them ... (sigh)... ) is beyond me.
 

MAC10

Dinker and Dunker
2020 Weekly NFL Picks Winner
You need to understand that @MAC10 moves the goal posts in these conversations far faster than anyone. It's like playing whack-a-mole, you'll beat down one argument and he'll pull out one of the many more he has in his pockets and move on to that, until you come up with a rebuttal and he'll switch it up on the move again. It's quite the skill, and he just outlasts the mental energy required to keep it going. I've already gone back and looked at posts from his early days, so I know this is just a schtick. Although why he keeps it going (and keeps mentioning the Super Bowls we lost and making us relive them ... (sigh)... ) is beyond me.

sorry, I’ve never been beaten down
 
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