Chances Patriots Win SB As A 3 Seed

[RelocatedPatFan]

What's all this talk of the 3 seed?

 

[RayClay]

Pending they get the 3 seed, what chances do you give NE to win the SB? Obviously this is hypothetical.

I said about a 15 percent chance due to injuries to Valentine, Branch and Van Noy, travel, and no Edelman

They can only win one game.

 

[RayClay]

Then, the next game.

 

[SVN]

Pending they get the 3 seed, what chances do you give NE to win the SB? Obviously this is hypothetical.

I said about a 15 percent chance due to injuries to Valentine, Branch and Van Noy, travel, and no Edelman

15 ? i thought you would give zero . So generous of you.

 

[SVN]

Staying at different hotels, different citites, and having to fly from NE to Jax? back to NE, and to Pit in consecutive weeks would have an impact.

So you are saying the steelers cant lose at home in the playoffs to baltimore or LA ?

 

[Bruins29]

I am worried about the pats jetlag if they fly to Ptt

 

[Tunescribe]

Staying at different hotels, different citites, and having to fly from NE to Jax? back to NE, and to Pit in consecutive weeks would have an impact.

You forget, the Patriots have their own plane with extra-large seats.

 

[Bruins29]

I am worried that the Pats pilot may get bribed by a rich Steelers fan and hijack them to Iraq or something and they miss the game

 

[Todd Bradley]

I mean, they’ve done everything else. Mind as well try a different path.

Next year, wild card to a 7th title?

 

[luuked]

Staying at different hotels, different citites, and having to fly from NE to Jax? back to NE, and to Pit in consecutive weeks would have an impact.

Are you sure that you are not a Steelers fan with all those excuses already lined up ?

 

[supafly]

Tough call. I’d assume 50-60 percent with the #1 seed, although that’s a bit higher than it's been historically. I definitely think this team is worthy of a 50/50 chance of winning the whole thing, should they secure HFA.

I had to drop my expectations down a bit if we’re talking about an extra game, no bye, etc. That would seem reasonable. I’d go maybe 35-40%.

It appears as though I’ve overestimated our chances a bit, at least according to Football Outsiders who currently have us as a 13.7% chance to win the SB. I don’t care. I’m sticking with 35-40%, despite the seeding.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Interesting considerations of the 16 years of the BB/TB era:
Patriots have qualified for the playoffs 14 times, 3 of those without earning a bye. Results: No SB appearances (1 AFCCG loss, 1 AFCDG loss, 1 one and done).

Reached the SB 5 times with the AFCCG in Foxboro and 2 times with the AFCCG away from Foxboro.

7 away games (not counting SBs as away): 3-4 record
3 losses in Denver, 1 loss in Indy(the ugly collapse)
2 wins in Pittsburgh (both AFCCGs), 1 win in San Diego (SD was by far the better team. Patriots won despite this obvious reality)

34 playoff games: 25-9 (in the last 10 years 13-7, in the last 5 years 9-3)

BB/TB playoff history highlights:
- Don't make SB w/o a bye
- Don't make SB w game in Denver
- All Raven games are either close wins or Ravens give the Patriots a solid loss
- Stay away from away games in Denver!
- Only away success is in Pittsburgh.
- Threshold -- More recent past 10 years: score under 20 = loss, Score over 25 = win (Jets loss exception - 21 scored but last TD was junk time with only seconds left on the clock)

Based on historical stats:
-A SB appearance without a bye = very unlikely.
-Based on this season's last 10 games metrics compared to history, the 2017 defense will need to play its best football in the playoffs to have any chance in a non bye scenario, or the offense will need to over perform (IMHO both dubious possibilities based on the no bye rest, multiple road game scenario).
-Stats are for losers

 

[TruthSeeker]

I went with 0-25% but not because of any of the excuses listed in the opening post but rather because it's just tough to get there and win.

The Patriots have done that 5 of the 14 seasons they made the playoffs under TB and all of those 5 were out of the #1 or #2 seeds. Sure, they can do it, but I'd start my percentages in the 30s and go down from there. Just playing an extra game pushes it down into the 20s at best much less needing to play some on the road.

 

[Richard Camembert]

This stuff is so premature; you can’t look at the specific matchups or venues or weather or injuries or any of that stuff. Didn’t bother to vote.

I get the overall point, OP thinks the Pats are probably screwed if they lose to PIT tomorrow, and more probably screwed if they wind up with the third seed, but I have 283 reasons regarding why I think that opinion is debatable.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

 

[50-yard-line]

They won't be traveling to Denver to play a decent/good Denver team, or to Miami to play a decent Miami team...

And given that they're in the driver's seat for #1 seed if they can field enough bodies to beat the Squealers tomorrow, this thread smacks of wah wah wah.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

I said 25--50, but I might change that up or down, depending on how TB12 plays tomorrow.
If he looks sharp and they lose because the D could not stop the three B's, then I'd raise it a notch.
If he looks like he did last week and they lose because they couldn't put up the points, then I'd lower it.

I think the bye week is not insignificant for a 40 year old QB.
We overlook the fact that, last year, Brady played the equivalent of a 16 game season with three Byes (Weeks 5--8, Bye, Weeks 10--17, Bye, AFC Division Game and AFCCG, Bye, SB.
18 games with one Bye will be a tough test.

 

[XLIX]

What's all this talk of the 3 seed?

Seriously. The Patriots lose a road game to a tough divisional opponent and people lose their minds. NE still controls their own destiny for the #1 seed and they still have the lead over Jacksonville.

But that's not good enough for some in here and so NE is already written into #3. Gimme a break.

 

[chasa]

the odds would be 1 in 6 they make it and then a 50/50 shot at superbowl rings

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Just get the top seed and i like our chances very much. It's always been the way for this franchise to get there.