Content Post CAP CRAP cheat sheet aka Dont go gently into FA

[RodThePat]

One bad high-priced contract can absolutely hamper your team, yes. We all know BB is loathe to give out those types of deals. Maybe that's not the way the NFL runs these days but I don't suspect him to change his philosophy now.

If they spend a first, second, two fourths and a 6th round picks on a WR and then extend him for big bucks, that's going to hamper the team's ability to build the roster elsewhere, yes. That's the type of move you make if you feel your team is one or two players away from contention or you're in panic mode.

They're going to need to draft and develop replacement for their two free agent TE's. The time to do that is now. Not when both guys are going to walk out the door in a year.

Why are we assuming it would be a bad contract? AJ Brown has been worth his contract for the Eagles and then some. So has Steffon Diggs, so has Tyreek Hill. None of those teams were technically a player away at the time of said deals, but the improvement in offensive production and QB development made them contenders (in Miami's case, pending Tua being healthy). I'm not shying away from looking at getting a transformative player like that because next off-season I'll have to grab a TE and don't have a punter. They have nothing on the books for 2025, their ability to create cap space is basically endless.

 

[Pape]

This stuff about Brady being here for two decades as the ultimate elixir is repeated so often it actually becomes gospel... it's total nonsense.

Its not nonsense though. He was that good for that long we did not need to go looking for a replacement player. In that, it allowed us to address other areas of concern. Its all a puzzle that needs to be put together... Money, Coaching, Players, Talent... I am not saying Brady is the only reason. I am saying he was part of the puzzle that we were able to lock in for an extended period.

Thats going to be my only post about Brady. I do not want this to devolve into a Brady thread. Its not my intention.

 

[Wozzy]

Why are we assuming it would be a bad contract? AJ Brown has been worth his contract for the Eagles and then some. So has Steffon Diggs, so has Tyreek Hill. None of those teams were technically a player away at the time of said deals, but the improvement in offensive production and QB development made them contenders (in Miami's case, pending Tua being healthy). I'm not shying away from looking at getting a transformative player like that because next off-season I'll have to grab a TE and don't have a punter. They have nothing on the books for 2025, their ability to create cap space is basically endless.

AJ Brown was a free agent, Tyreek got traded for a ransom of draft picks... once move was smart, and the other was dumb.

 

[Wozzy]

Its not nonsense though. He was that good for that long we did not need to go looking for a replacement player. In that, it allowed us to address other areas of concern. Its all a puzzle that needs to be put together... Money, Coaching, Players, Talent... I am not saying Brady is the only reason. I am saying he was part of the puzzle that we were able to lock in for an extended period.

Thats going to be my only post about Brady. I do not want this to devolve into a Brady thread. Its not my intention.

My point is they don't need all-time great play from the QB position to be relevant, they need quality play from the QB position. About half the teams in the league have that.

What separates the ring chasing teams from the non contenders... is everybody else on the roster, not the QB.

The Pats need Kirk Cousins production or Eli Manning production, that way they can two rings like Eli has.

 

[RodThePat]

AJ Brown was a free agent, Tyreek got traded for a ransom of draft picks... once move was smart, and the other was dumb.

AJ Brown wasn't a free agent, he was traded for. And Tyreek completely transformed the Dolphins offense and gave them a glimpse of what Tua could be with adequate help around him. I don't think anyone in Miami believes that deal was a poor one for the Dolphins.

 

[archstanton543]

AJ Brown wasn't a free agent, he was traded for. And Tyreek completely transformed the Dolphins offense and gave them a glimpse of what Tua could be with adequate help around him. I don't think anyone in Miami believes that deal was a poor one for the Dolphins.

The bill always comes due.

 

[Pape]

My point is they don't need all-time great play from the QB position to be relevant, they need quality play from the QB position. About half the teams in the league have that.

What separates the ring chasing teams from the non contenders... is everybody else on the roster, not the QB.

The Pats need Kirk Cousins production or Eli Manning production, that way they can two rings like Eli has.

Agreed. You need talent to win in this league. That's why we are sputtering now. We have some talent. Bur not enough imo.

Manage the cap correctly, and we will bring in the talent in order to compete. May not be the splashy signings, but as long as they are contributors, I'm good with that.

 

[patfanken]

The Phins also traded some heavy draft capital to bring in one of the best receivers in the league. Do you want the Pats to something similar when there are tons more holes on the team they need to find long-term solutions to (OT, CB, S, TE, OG, P, K)?

And remember the Phins made that huge investment and won exactly ONE more football game than the Pats did.

 

[Wozzy]

AJ Brown wasn't a free agent, he was traded for. And Tyreek completely transformed the Dolphins offense and gave them a glimpse of what Tua could be with adequate help around him. I don't think anyone in Miami believes that deal was a poor one for the Dolphins.

Neither team has won a Super Bowl so far, neither have the Bills for that matter and now Josh Allen's cap hit is no longer a rookie contract cap hit. They're in danger of losing their best safety and linebacker.

Fans love the instant gratification and ignore the longterm ramifications. I don't want to argue this point too much because both the Eagles and Miami made some savvy moves prior to these trades by loading up on first round draft picks. They had the ammo to spend. That being said... what would have happened if they had used those high draft picks on WR's in the draft instead. Nobody knows who they would have drafted, but they could have gotten similar production for less and still had picks left over.

 

[RodThePat]

The bill always comes due.

So even if a player plays up to his rich contract, the mere fact that it was a lot of money is detrimental to the team? There's just no way a high paid player will ever be worth it? Just trying to get a sense of what team are we trying to build here exactly, because it seems like you guys are all in on the Agholor/Bourne/Jonnu approach to filling holes on offense (moderately priced players with some upside and much fewer years and guarantees than the top guys). I've yet to see that strategy work without elite QB play, but I guess we can run it back endlessly to figure out.

 

[RodThePat]

Neither team has won a Super Bowl so far, neither have the Bills for that matter and now Josh Allen's cap hit is no longer a rookie contract cap hit. They're in danger of losing their best safety and linebacker. Fans see the immediate and ignore the longterm ramifications. I don't want to argue this point too much because both the Eagles and Miami made some savvy moves prior to these trades by loading up on first round draft picks. They had the ammo to spend. That being said... what would have happened if they had used those high draft picks on WR's in the draft instead. Nobody knows who they would have drafted, but they could have gotten similar production for less and still had picks left over.

Just keep building that middle class and see where that approach gets you without an all-world QB. And the odds are you won't even get to find out if Mac has all-world QB potential if you keep surrounding him with middling players and asking him to just not turn the ball over.

 

[Wozzy]

Agreed. You need talent to win in this league. That's why we are sputtering now. We have some talent. Bur not enough imo.

Manage the cap correctly, and we will bring in the talent in order to compete. May not be the splashy signings, but as long as they are contributors, I'm good with that.

IMO they sputtered in 2022 because the offense was run by clowns who had no business coordinating an offense. Thornton and Marcus Jones have the athleticism to become super weapons, the Pats had lots of talent last season. They went from 6th in the league to 25th in the league in scoring due to one horrid offseason coaching decision. They moved to rectify that immediately this offseason.

Fans always blame talent, in 2018 fans and media insisted all season the Pats didn't have the talent, and I was screaming it was execution. Then with the only additions at the trade deadline being two special teams players, the same exact talent improved execution and went on to win the Super Bowl.

Teams need talent and to execute at a high level. A team that doesn't execute efficiently can easily be mistaken for a team with no talent.

 

[Wozzy]

Just keep building that middle class and see where that approach gets you without an all-world QB. And the odds are you won't even get to find out if Mac has all-world QB potential if you keep surrounding him with middling players and asking him to just not turn the ball over.

History has already proven this to be false.

Justin Herbert is as talented as any QB in the league, the difference between him and Mahomes or Burrow is team.

 

[upstater1]

We all know how the cap works. When people throw water on the cap is crap argument, it's because eventually, you HAVE to pay the piper. It's all we're saying.

Heard 98.5 this morning say the cap is crap because Deshaun Watson got a $35m bonus on a restructure, a $1m salary for this year. It created $35m of cap room.

So the hosts were like, you can keep doing that into perpetuity!!!

Then they said the Browns are on the hook for $64m against the cap each year for Watson for the next 3 years. And so the host said they can just keep pushing that number out again and again and again.

But it doesn't work like that. Eventually, Watson is not going to play forever for the Browns. They better hope that happens later. When he leaves, the bill comes due. And I don't even know how you run a team when your QB eats $64m of the cap per year.

 

[Triumph]

Why is it that they can't contend in 2023 and 2024 again? The Dolphins had a questionable first round QB who hadn't shown all that much and all of a sudden he led the league in passer rating and ANY/A after they catered the offense to his strengths and drafted a very good receiver high in the first before adding Hill. Why can't we emulate that model? The Josh Allen Bills are very well run, but they aren't the 2004 Patriots. Aside from that, if your worry is with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, those guys will still be going strong in 2025. The biggest advantage the Pats have over those teams is a QB that makes no money, why not spend? And I'm not talking about spending on the Jonnus, Agholors and Bournes of the world, go grab elite players on offense.

The Pat's won't contend because they have no QB.

 

[archstanton543]

Absolutely. I'd be thrilled if they could do the AJ Brown deal right now, it would transform this offense just like it did for the Eagles. And come on, OG isn't a hole, P and K are super cheap to replace and they have two starting TEs under contract. If you're asking me whether I think they could bring back Jonathan Jones and find a safety and a tackle in FA/reasonably high in the draft, I 100% do. Why do we act like having ONE SINGLE big money player will destroy their capability to put together a roster?

What's that about not having a hole at TE? Jonnu's gone. They have to find his replacement now.

 

[patfanken]

This was a very good OP. In any given SINGLE year the cap can be crap. But bills that are pushed down the road STILL are bills that have to paid...eventually. The Rams have done this for the last 4 years and got 2 Superbowl appearances out of it. Depending on how long their rebuild is going to be, will determine how successfully their investment will be viewed.

We essentially did the same thing over the last 3 or 4 years of the Brady era that ended in 2019. Since that time we had one year to dump that cap deficit (2020), one year to add significant FA talent (2021) and one year to wait for the OC Bill wanted (2022). During that time we had fun competitive teams that won about half their games. And were in playoff contention the last week of the season. Not as good as we have been used or wanted, but "competitive" and entertaining nonetheless.

As consumers of an entertainment product we SHOULD be happy, if not satisfied with the product being offered to us. Starting THIS year we have the chance to add significant talent with the draft and FA. We also now have the staff that can maximize that talent (I hope). Bill has always built through BOTH FA and the draft, mostly by adding strong middle class FA's with the draft.

This year FA isn't great is some of the positions that we need the most. If Orlando Brown is you top OT and Jacobi Meyers is the top WR, then this ISN'T a great FA crop.

I read somewhere where an agent is quoted as saying that the middle class of FA has "evaporated" That is NOT good, or it can be, since it means that some former middle class players are now in the bargain bin. Unfortunately it also means that some middle class players are going to get paid like high class ones.

With about $30MM in space BEFORE any restructuring, the Pats CAN afford at least one day one FA. I'd still prefer one of the top DT's to get that money, because I believe we can add a "middle class" OT or CB later on as well as draft both of those positions in the first 3 rounds.

I'm afraid that I think the Pats will be better off in the long run if Meyers gets his good deal elsewhere. He's a very "nice" player, but is NEVER going to be what the Pats need right now, which is a dynamic YAC kind of guy. The (guess) $12+MM/yr its going to take to sign him is going to better spent elsewhere or to his replacement down the road.

It will be a very INTERESTING week as Wednesday rolls around. It's like Christmas. It will be fun to see what "presents" Santa Bill has left for us under that tree come NEXT Monday.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

What's that about not having a hole at TE? Jonnu's gone. They have to find his replacement now.

The draft maybe?

 

[archstanton543]

The draft maybe?

That's my point. Now they have another hole to fill in the draft meaning they can go nuts and trade a ton of picks for a WR like the Phins did for Hill.

 

[Triumph]

What's that about not having a hole at TE? Jonnu's gone. They have to find his replacement now.

Because Henry and Jonnu have been so successful in NE.