Will the new Patriot Coach be playing with one hand tied behind his back?

[CPA_MM]

Patriot sports fans need to think about the salary cap in a different light. An example to illustrate my point:

In early September 2023, conventional sports reporting (my data from OverTheCap) would go like this: The Bills are down to less than a million in cap space, while the Patriots have $5M.

OR- thinking of the salary cap in a different light:

With $210M of new cap for contracts, the Bills start the season with total player contracts valued at $289M adjusted average pay per year (APY)—the highest value in the NFL. The Bills have eight players with contracts = > $10M APY. The total season cap charge is $209M, 72% of the contract value.

Meanwhile, with $193M available for active contracts, the Patriots have contracts valued at $183M APY- 31st of 32 clubs. The Patriots have two players with contracts = > $10M. The total season cap charge is $188M, 102% of the contract value. The Patriots are the only club in 2023 where the cap charge exceeds the value of the contracts. The NFL club average is 80% cap charge to contract value.

The Bills can afford to have player contracts valued at $106M more than the Patriots. What is going on?

The QB position can explain part of the variance. The Bills have an elite quarterback in Allen; the Patriots do not. This contract variance can explain about $32M of the $106M.

The rest has to be the difference in cap management philosophy. The Bills use contract backloading, restructures, extensions, and void years on contracts more extensively than the Patriots. They can afford higher contract APY at lower cap cost.

Without a cap philosophy change in New England, the new coach will be playing with one hand tied behind his back.

MM

 

[archstanton543]

 

[Rob0729]

FWIW, Matt Groh said in training camp that the cap can be manipulated and if you want a player, you can find a way to afford him. So maybe Groh and Wolf were hamstrung by Belichick on playing games with the cap like other teams.

Also a thing of note, Kraft made a point yesterday to mention how much cap space they have in 2024. It seemed to be that he was telegraphing that the Pats were going to be aggressive in free agency. I’d expect that just so Kraft could prove that he wasn’t cheap and it was Belichick who wasn’t willing to spend in free agency.

 

[CPA_MM]

I believe Belichick is a good coach. Who determined the cap philosophy- I am sure Belichich had much to say about it. Time will tell if Krafts point is real or just words tumbling off his lips.

The cap IS manipulated. One team with a player contract of $43M and a cap charge of $6M. Patriots Wise contract value at $6M and a cap charge of $9M. Cap charge is based on how the contract was written.

 

[Sicilian]

I always back to this: The cap IS real, it's just that the actual number isn't what's listed. You can always maneuver things around to find room for a player you want, but the bill always comes due eventually, which results in having to make choices on where you distribute that money and how often you play the cap games. So yes, teams aren't held to a strict "Stay under $250 million no matter what because that's the cap" kind of situation, but they also can't just go out and pay All-Pros at every position just because the cap can be massaged.

 

[CPA_MM]

Yes, eventually the "bill becomes due."

Let's take the Jalen Hurts contract with the Eagles as an example. He signed an extension to his rookie contract that runs thru the year 2035. The last seven years of the contract are years are void. The contract was valued at $43.2M Adjusted APY.

A total of $98M of the contract is assigned to void year 2029. As a result, his cap hit in 2023 is only $6M, in 2024 $14M. Until 2029, or seven years from now, then Eagles will have the bill come due. In the meantime, they can chase the Super Bowl with a major cap advantage at quarterback.

Because of lax salary cap rules, the bill that comes due can be delayed five or more years, giving the clubs that aggressively use the salary cap the ability to afford contracts $40M to $60M more than clubs that do not.

 

[Vindicate]

Yes, eventually the "bill becomes due."

Let's take the Jalen Hurts contract with the Eagles as an example. He signed an extension to his rookie contract that runs thru the year 2035. The last seven years of the contract are years are void. The contract was valued at $43.2M Adjusted APY.

A total of $98M of the contract is assigned to void year 2029. As a result, his cap hit in 2023 is only $6M, in 2024 $14M. Until 2029, or seven years from now, then Eagles will have the bill come due. In the meantime, they can chase the Super Bowl with a major cap advantage at quarterback.

Because of lax salary cap rules, the bill that comes due can be delayed five or more years, giving the clubs that aggressively use the salary cap the ability to afford contracts $40M to $60M more than clubs that do not.

Once said bill is due, for how long will a team deal with the ramifications?

 

[mike_usagisan]

It only makes sense if we have the players that we need to push the can down the road for. Until we get the QB and offense figured out, the cap part of it isn't that important.

 

[CPA_MM]

Once said bill is due, for how long will a team deal with the ramifications?

 

[CPA_MM]

Good question.

Look at the Rams- Dead cap went from $27M in 2022 to $75M in 2023. Their total contract value went from $255M in 2022 season to the lowest value in the league at $183M in 2023. The Rams made the playoffs. They were able to keep high cost Stafford, Donald and Krupp. The team had low costs draft picks and free agents. The cap charge for 2023 was 77%, or $141M. So the Rams were lucky and didn't seem to have a large fall out the next season.

The Eagles dead cap charge over the last three years was $186M, the Patriots $78M. The Eagles began the 2023 season with contracts worth $277M, the Patriots $184M. The Eagles are very aggressive in the use of void years on contracts. They have a cap change of only 61% of contract value, the lowest in the league. So the Eagles have gone at least three years without a reckoning.

My current guess is a team could go five or more years before having to clear the salary cap deck so to speak. I only began tracking the relationship between contract value and salary cap costs this season.