The Patriots were toast before the season began- a casualty of the salary cap.

[CPA_MM]

Before the Pats took the field, they were at a significant disadvantage.
(data from OverTheCap contract files- early September, 2023)

Comparing the two most salary cap extreme teams - the Eagles & Pats
** The Eagles have eleven players making $= > $10M, the Pats 2.
** The Eagles contracts with all their players worth $277 (APY), Pats $184(APY)
** The Pats salary cap charge was $19M more than the Eagles on contracts $93M less.

Comparing the Pats to the rest of the league.
** The average NFL club has contracts of $235M (APY), The Pats $184.
** The average NFL club has a cap charge of 80% of the contract to APY value.
** The Jets cap to contract value was 71%, the Bills 74%, the Dolphins 76%, the Pats 103%.
** The Pats are the only NFL club that salary cap charges exceed to APY contract value.

Finally, the 8 highest contract APY teams through 10/31 are winning 64% of their games, the lowest 8 are winning 36%. Until the cap rules are changes, it is nothing but a giant shell game.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Before the Pats took the field, they were at a significant disadvantage.
(data from OverTheCap contract files- early September, 2023)

Comparing the two most salary cap extreme teams - the Eagles & Pats
** The Eagles have eleven players making $= > $10M, the Pats 2.
** The Eagles contracts with all their players worth $277 (APY), Pats $184(APY)
** The Pats salary cap charge was $19M more than the Eagles on contracts $93M less.

Comparing the Pats to the rest of the league.
** The average NFL club has contracts of $235M (APY), The Pats $184.
** The average NFL club has a cap charge of 80% of the contract to APY value.
** The Jets cap to contract value was 71%, the Bills 74%, the Dolphins 76%, the Pats 103%.
** The Pats are the only NFL club that salary cap charges exceed to APY contract value.

Finally, the 8 highest contract APY teams through 10/31 are winning 64% of their games, the lowest 8 are winning 36%. Until the cap rules are changes, it is nothing but a giant shell game.

Does dead money play into this?

 

[CPA_MM]

Yes. Dead money is a two edged sword. It keeps the owners cost certain, but it increases the variance between clubs on active contracts. The more clubs that use void years in contracts, the more dead cap will be incurred.

The Eagles contract with Jalen Hurts is a prime example of why changes need to be made to cap accounting. The extension of Hurts contract runs 2023 through 2035. 2029 thru 2035 are void years. $98M of cap for Hurts total cost of $217M (Effective APY) is charged against the void years- which allows the Eagles a huge advantage.

 

[CPA_MM]

Does dead money play into this?

Indirectly. Teams use void years, dummy years and backloading contract's to reduce current cap at the expense of future cap. This is why the Eagles can have contacts worth $277M with a cap hit of 61% on those contracts, while the Patriots can afford only $184M of contracts because the cap hit is 103%. Eventually, these Eagle contracts with void and dummy years, if not extended, will result in dead cap.

 

[Pape]

Interesting and helpful breakdown... Should void years be limited to 1 season or eliminated completely?

 

[Guts]

Hey CPA stick around we need your kind around here

 

[Thelonious]

They are a "casualty" of fireably incompetent team-building on the part of the GM over several years.

 

[Pape]

@Ian @Ross12 @mike_usagisan

This thread deserves to be in the main Patriots forum

 

[Ross12]

@Ian @Ross12 @mike_usagisan

This thread deserves to be in the main Patriots forum

Moved!

 

[captain stone]

Before the Pats took the field, they were at a significant disadvantage...

Because their GM ****ing Sucks.

Period.

Class dismissed... You're welcome.

 

[203Pat]

So good teams manipulate the cap and bad teams claim it as a hinderance to building a good team.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

So good teams manipulate the cap and bad teams claim it as a hinderance to building a good team.

As he pointed out, the Eagles will have to pay eventually for those void years. Of course, the cap increases with inflation every year so it becomes relatively less expensive.

The Patriots are paying a lot of money on dead hits because of crappy past signings where they had to eat it, and continuing to make stupid signings. These big splash deals have consequences years later.

The Eagles, as they should, are stacking all of their cap money into their window of contention for now. At some point that will cost them (see Rams, Saints) but it’s probably worth it.

 

[rkarp1]

So good teams manipulate the cap and bad teams claim it as a hinderance to building a good team.

yes exactly
paying todays prices with tomorrows money while the cap continues to go up year after year is smart.

 

[VrabelJr]

IIRC the Broncos did this in 2015 or so with tons of backloaded dead money contracts.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

IIRC the Broncos did this in 2015 or so with tons of backloaded dead money contracts.

Saints, Rams, Packers, Bucs, 2010s Broncos. Many contending teams do variations of this. The Patriots didn’t but Bill claimed he did while rationalizing the 2020 failed season. The reality they had no money and a thinned roster because of his bad player evaluations and bad drafts.

 

[mike_usagisan]

It only makes sense for the Pats to do this now is if they had a bunch of players worth big money deals and you want to squeeze them under the cap. We don’t have those players and they largely weren’t available last free agency, so spending money to spend money would have done no good. If we can spend money on real OTs and a WR1, I’d be all for it!

 

[StrawHatPatriot]

Saints, Rams, Packers, Bucs, 2010s Broncos. Many contending teams do variations of this. The Patriots didn’t but Bill claimed he did while rationalizing the 2020 failed season. The reality they had no money and a thinned roster because of his bad player evaluations and bad drafts.

Exactly

And 3 of those teams won rings. The Saints would have if Brees didn't get physically washed up unfortunately. The broncos also would have been fine had they decided to just draft Josh Allen in 2018

 

[Sam Bam Cunningham]

Great post and absolutely the best evidence based data as why Bill the GM must be let go on black Monday.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes. Dead money is a two edged sword. It keeps the owners cost certain, but it increases the variance between clubs on active contracts. The more clubs that use void years in contracts, the more dead cap will be incurred.

The Eagles contract with Jalen Hurts is a prime example of why changes need to be made to cap accounting. The extension of Hurts contract runs 2023 through 2035. 2029 thru 2035 are void years. $98M of cap for Hurts total cost of $217M (Effective APY) is charged against the void years- which allows the Eagles a huge advantage.

That only gives them an advantage in your analysis.

 

[Rob0729]

There are plenty of ways to get around the cap without putting yourself in cap hell. There are plenty of teams that are adding voidable years to contracts to get extra money and kicking the can down the road.

The Patriots just rarely choose to do it even though the current cap growth makes it far easier to do. The Saints are the extreme at this, but a lot of teams are adding and retaining talent at high salaries and not facing significant cap ramifications.