The Patriots Cap Performance Stands out, but not in a good way

[DaBruinz]

For this team they need a couple years to add talent so if the guy is not under 28, they should not resign them.
That leaves Bryant, Wilson, Uche, Jennings, Reagor, Onwenu, as the only guys that have played NFL snaps regularly and are under 28. Everyone else, just let them go.

The Following Free Agents (RFA/ERFA) have played NFL snaps and are under 28.


RFA:
Terez Hall

ERFA:
Christian Elliss
Alex Austin
Tre Nixon

The idea that you should just let talent walk if they are over 28 is absurd. Now, I'm not advocating re-signing Trent Brown or anything like that. I'm saying that you can't just make a blanket statement like you did.

There are 3 guys who are UFA for the Pats that I'd consider re-signed. Slater, Davis, Pharaoh Brown. Slater and Davis were still very high end special teams players last season. Though both may retire. Brown turns 30. He was an adequate #3 TE. It think a Drew Sample would be better in the long run than Brown..

 

[mgteich]

The Piper always needs to be paid in the end.

I am OK with deferring money WHEN the team is on the cusp of a championship...and we want to keep the team together.

But given our current talent level, I am happy that we are not deferring....

For example, do we want to defer Davante Parker? Or just accept his 6M cap number this year....then cut him next year when he only counts for 1.5M in dead money? How about JuJu Smith-Schuster? 10M cap number this year...but only 2.6M dead money hit in 2025.

Those guys aren't worth deferring for..... I'd only do it for a handful of players like Judon for example...just to keep Judon around when we are close to a Superbowl contender while adding more talent.

Ok, then let us celebrate this awsome strategy of our long-time GM. Let us celebrate CHOOSING to spend less than the rest of teams, year after year.

Your argument about Parker is off-point. The arguable mistake is not deferring Parker's compensation. The mistake was choosing to spend the money on Parker.

Your basic point seems to be that Bill was so bad at choosing talent that it is great that he didn't sign more talent. OK, that's fair. Of course, that just means that we should have fired him a couple of years ago.

 

[mgteich]

The Piper always needs to be paid in the end.

I 100% agree.

The end is the 2-4 years after the NFL folds. Until then, continuing our strategy, almost all teams will have talent totaling more each year in contract value than the patriots.

I also 100% agree that the patriots need to be much better at player evaluation, and in acquiring players.

But, IMO, we spend less on contracts for players, and that fact puts us at a competitive disadvantage.
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Sure, you can point to signing players where you wanted different and better ones. Was the problem paying and deferring costs for WR's? Or was the problem the choice of Agholor, Parker and Shuster (and Thornton)?

For $9.5M, we can sign a player for $20 AAV. Perhaps, there is someone out there worth $7M or even $9.5M of our large amount of cap space. On the other hand, is it reasonable to pay $20M of 2024 cap space for one player? I submit that it is better to get 2 or 3 for the same cap money. OBVIOUSLY, the primary issue is to choose well.

CONTRACT $50M for 3 years
DEFER WITH $20M bonus and void 4th year
Year 1: salary 2, bonus 20
Year 2 salary 10
Year 3 salary 18
Year 4 void
The caps are 7, 15, 23 and 5

CONTRACT OF $60M over 3 with void year
add $10M to bonus, adding $2.5M to each year's cap.

 

[Hyped]

Ok, then let us celebrate this awsome strategy of our long-time GM. Let us celebrate CHOOSING to spend less than the rest of teams, year after year.

Your argument about Parker is off-point. The arguable mistake is not deferring Parker's compensation. The mistake was choosing to spend the money on Parker.

Your basic point seems to be that Bill was so bad at choosing talent that it is great that he didn't sign more talent. OK, that's fair. Of course, that just means that we should have fired him a couple of years ago.

I agree that spending money on Parker WAS THE MISTAKE.

But as it relates to deferring....you do that when your team is on the cusp of contending for a Lombardi. No point to do it for a bubble playoff team...which is what we were in 2000-2022 before the wheels fell off last season. Basically, I am saying DEFER contracts when you can add elite players to an already loaded team that is spending to the cap.

Our list of all pro players the last 4 years:

Marcus Jones
Matt Slater
Jake Bailey
Gunner Olszewski

Our list of pro-bowlers the last 4 years:

Matt Slater (2x) , Gunner Olszewski, Stephon Gilmore, Matthew Judon (2x), J.C. Jackson, Marcus Jones, and Mac Jones (LOL).


Of the combined all-pro/pro-bowl lists above the final tally is this:

QB - Mac Jones was invited as an alternate.
CB - Stephon Gilmore is a former DPOY who was traded for a 6th rounder and J.C. Jackson left in FA...only to return.
Edge - Matt Judon...arguably our best player the last 3 seasons.
PR/KR: - Marcus Jones (injured, but has promise as a 3rd CB too) and Gunner Olszewski (who is on his 3rd team)
P - Jake Bailey who plays for the Dolphins now....
Gunner - Matt Slater who is likely to retire.

That is a far cry from when we had guys like Brady, Gronk, Gilmore, Hightower, D-Mac, etc...etc....now for guys like that...you defer.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that spending money on Parker WAS THE MISTAKE.
.

That is a far cry from when we had guys like Brady, Gronk, Gilmore, Hightower, D-Mac, etc...etc....now for guys like that...you defer.

For sure.
And for when you have a team like that, you have the GOAT QB and a top OC making every man on Offense better.
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What you seem to be saying is that we weren't able to judge talent, we should simply choose fewer higher paid player than everyone else. I suppose that's right. With regard to the patriots deferring only when they were on the cusp of a Super Bowl, that was every year.

BTW, we know the stat from last year. We should find the stat over past years.

 

[mgteich]

I agree that spending money on Parker WAS THE MISTAKE.

But as it relates to deferring....you do that when your team is on the cusp of contending for a Lombardi. No point to do it for a bubble playoff team...which is what we were in 2000-2022 before the wheels fell off last season. Basically, I am saying DEFER contracts when you can add elite players to an already loaded team that is spending to the cap.

Our list of all pro players the last 4 years:

Marcus Jones
Matt Slater
Jake Bailey
Gunner Olszewski

Our list of pro-bowlers the last 4 years:

Matt Slater (2x) , Gunner Olszewski, Stephon Gilmore, Matthew Judon (2x), J.C. Jackson, Marcus Jones, and Mac Jones (LOL).


Of the combined all-pro/pro-bowl lists above the final tally is this:

QB - Mac Jones was invited as an alternate.
CB - Stephon Gilmore is a former DPOY who was traded for a 6th rounder and J.C. Jackson left in FA...only to return.
Edge - Matt Judon...arguably our best player the last 3 seasons.
PR/KR: - Marcus Jones (injured, but has promise as a 3rd CB too) and Gunner Olszewski (who is on his 3rd team)
P - Jake Bailey who plays for the Dolphins now....
Gunner - Matt Slater who is likely to retire.

That is a far cry from when we had guys like Brady, Gronk, Gilmore, Hightower, D-Mac, etc...etc....now for guys like that...you defer.

The patriots simply spend less

 

[KCSVEN]

The idea that you should just let talent walk if they are over 28 is absurd. Now, I'm not advocating re-signing Trent Brown or anything like that. I'm saying that you can't just make a blanket statement like you did.

There are 3 guys who are UFA for the Pats that I'd consider re-signed. Slater, Davis, Pharaoh Brown. Slater and Davis were still very high end special teams players last season. Though both may retire. Brown turns 30. He was an adequate #3 TE. It think a Drew Sample would be better in the long run than Brown..

If you can use similar cap space for a similar younger player, then you do it. They only have so much cap space, spending it on declining players THIS year makes little sense.
Save the money for younger player or for the next off season when adding some vets may actually make a difference.
Those 3 guys are making no real difference in this team's record, what's the point?
You can get a younger guy, do a similar skill set but still be contributing after next year and maybe even improving as a player.
Obviously if there is just nobody that can replace the guy at 80% of what they give you, and the money is small, not a big deal. If the veteran is an incredible leader, then it helps with the younger guys, worth bringing in.
There are ZERO Patriot free agents over 28 that are not pretty easily replaceable by someone younger.

 

[mgteich]

The Following Free Agents (RFA/ERFA) have played NFL snaps and are under 28.


RFA:
Terez Hall

ERFA:
Christian Elliss
Alex Austin
Tre Nixon

The idea that you should just let talent walk if they are over 28 is absurd. Now, I'm not advocating re-signing Trent Brown or anything like that. I'm saying that you can't just make a blanket statement like you did.

There are 3 guys who are UFA for the Pats that I'd consider re-signed. Slater, Davis, Pharaoh Brown. Slater and Davis were still very high end special teams players last season. Though both may retire. Brown turns 30. He was an adequate #3 TE. It think a Drew Sample would be better in the long run than Brown..

The idea that it is easy to replace Trent Brown is just plain silly. And, no, I wouldn't re-sign him.

The idea that we should keep veterans is also s silly idea. The question is expected value over the term of the contract to be signed. If y'all think that Pharoh Brown will be easily we replaced for another younger TE, I think that you are wrong. I would expect that a younger TE might cost more for the same period of the contract.
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One of the great advantages of the patriots during the dynasty is that older players would come here and be valuable later in their careers, sometimes for a year or two, sometimes as a new star (Vrabel, Harrison).
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And, yes, I still think that older veteran defensive players and STers will still want to come as they have for many years.
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The HUGE question is the continuing acquisition of players on Offense. The first step is to sign a real QB and get some of our vets to stay: Onwenu, Henry, P Brown, Zeke would be a great start to the off-season.

STEP TWO
is for our OC to convince players to come to play in the Offense that he is building.

THE DRAFT
is always aimed at the future, with perhaps an absolute current need for a starter at a particular position. This year that need is at OT. While we need a top QB, it is fine if he sits for a year. One or even two OT's may need to play now.