Some Thoughts On Cap Arithmetic

[mgteich]

BACKGROUND

1) We have about $30M of 2023 cap money to "spend".

2) Any 2 year or longer contract with a signing bonus will spread some compensation to future years. For example, a 3 year 51M contract might have a $21M signing bonus and $3M 2023 salary. This $17M AAV contract add $9M against the 2023 cap instead the $17M might guess. ($21/3 plus $3M less $1M for the player replaced on the 51 man cap roster. One could bring this number down, but it seems "normal" to push $7M into the future.

3) We need about $10M cap money later for various items including the cost of signing draftees, IR money for those injured in camp or in the season, replacements for those put om IR, the Practice Squad, late trade acquisitions, Player 52 and 53, and some bonus money that counts against this year's cap (I believe that this is primarily game bonuses for being active). This is NOT a now issue. As is usually the case, Belichick will probably use simple restructures to cover these needs (Simple restructures just push money into the future without changing total compensation to the player).

4) Low level signing cost even less than we might think. For example, a $1.9M one year contract would only cost $1M of cap money, after subtracting the cost of the player replaced on 51 Player List.
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"MINOR" RE-SIGNINGS - $10.5M? call it $10M
If these players could be signed for contracts with $2.4M cap hits, the cost would be $1.5M each.
1) Cardona (LS)
2) Davis (DL)
3) Davis (ST)
4) Wilson (LB)
5) McMillan (LB)
6) Ekuale (DL)
7) Bryant (DB) he is now an RFA
For me, this is good value for $10M of cap space.
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THAT LEAVES $20M
without additional money freed up by cuts or extensions (e.g. McCourty) to be used for any of these possibilities
A) early free agents (more expensive)
B) later free agents (less expensive, past recent examples include like Phillps, Wilson and Peppers)
C) players via trade
D) Re-signing Jones
E) re-signing Peppers
F) re-signing Harris
G) re-signing Cajuste (he is currently an RFA)
H) re-signing Meyers
For me, Peppers and Jones are the highest priorities.

 

[Pape]

There will be savings via cuts... you re-sign Cardona, Addington becomes redundant... Thats 900k... Maybe cut Folk with a wink wink nod nod... Saves 2.2 til camp... Lot of million dollar pickups on the roster

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

I think DMac qualifies got the 4 year active service discount that Slater has?

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

Do we still have $169M in cap space in 2024 (next year)? If true, we could pull some cap space from next year to this.

 

[Pape]

I think DMac qualifies got the 4 year active service discount that Slater has?

He's not at the veteran minimum... But if he decides to retire, we can outright release him post 6/1, pick up 6.2m in cap space this year... We do pick up a few million in dead cap space for the duration of the contract though

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

He's not at the veteran minimum... But if he decides to retire, we can outright release him post 6/1, pick up 6.2m in cap space this year... We do pick up a few million in dead cap space for the duration of the contract though

If we pick up $6.2M additional, that makes Bates affordable. If we release TBrown and pick up $12M additional, that makes any other RT affordable.

 

[Wozzy]

We currently have the 7th most total cap in the NFL and 5th most dedicated to the top 51 players.

We currently have the 4th most players under contract in 2023, with two QB's on rookie contracts.

We currently have 11 draft picks once the compensatory process plays out.

But you can't look at a one season snapshot to grasp the entirety of the salary cap. The Pats are flush with resources; draft capital and cap space, not just because of one season but because next season in 2024 they have the 5th most cap space in the NFL with a ton of draft picks also, and this carries into the future.

Take a team like the Saints the season before last for example. They started dead last in 2021 in available draft space and didn't have their draft picks, but they had a really good team outside of QB when Brees retired. They reworked just about every contract on their roster and moved cap debt into the future. The posters who think the cap is irrelevant or inconsequential used this as ammo to tell us how the cap doesn't matter, that it's all funny money.

Well fast forward to the 2021 draft, the Saints really needed a QB but they didn't have the cap space or dollars to sign a free agent. Sean Payton really wanted to move up ahead of the Patriots to take Mac Jones but they didn't have the draft capital to make a godfather sized offer that was too good to refuse. Instead they paid Jameis Winston pennies and it was working until he got hurt, Payton retired.

Next offseason the Saints will have cap space and draft picks, they'll be able to attack the offseason. The Pats are filthy rich, they can build any team they want now. It doesn't mean they'll change their business model and start spending like drunken sailors, nor should they. It also doesn't mean they can't fail in 2023, they need to draft well and sign great value vets this offseason... they need a great offseason. But resources isn't a problem...

 

[upstater1]

Contracts for Dugger and Onwenu need to be considered here.

 

[Sciz]

Do we still have $169M in cap space in 2024 (next year)? If true, we could pull some cap space from next year to this.

Never trust future cap room numbers, because they assume absurd amounts of carryover. Whatever numbers you saw for 2024 assumed they they will spend none of their $30M+ in 2023 cap room.

That said, the Patriots do have extreme flexibility beyond 2023. Every veteran currently under contract in 2024 can be cut if they’re not worth it.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I read an article where they could clear another 30 million with some restructure/cuts. It didn't elaborate on how though. Miguel probably knows.

 

[WTF!]

 

[Ross12]

Never trust future cap room numbers, because they assume absurd amounts of carryover. Whatever numbers you saw for 2024 assumed they they will spend none of their $30M+ in 2023 cap room.

That said, the Patriots do have extreme flexibility beyond 2023. Every veteran currently under contract in 2024 can be cut if they’re not worth it.

Overthecap shows the Patriots at $155M projected in 2024. Even if we assume around $30M of that is carryover which won’t exist, that’s still $125M left. Seems like there are opportunities to extend some players like Judon or Henry to lower their 2023 cap hits and place more of their cost in future seasons.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Never trust future cap room numbers, because they assume absurd amounts of carryover. Whatever numbers you saw for 2024 assumed they they will spend none of their $30M+ in 2023 cap room.

That said, the Patriots do have extreme flexibility beyond 2023. Every veteran currently under contract in 2024 can be cut if they’re not worth it.

Overthecap shows the Patriots at $155M projected in 2024. Even if we assume around $30M of that is carryover which won’t exist, that’s still $125M left. Seems like there are opportunities to extend some players like Judon or Henry to lower their 2023 cap hits and place more of their cost in future seasons.

It sounds like if there's a target deemed worthy we can pro-rate a bonus or bonuses plural to create a cheap deal in '23 and a sweet (for the player) deal in '24 fairly easily. The problem's never moving it around that one special time... it's considering every time "that one special time"

Thanks to the OP for such a rich rundown of what's up as of right now...

My only real input in the nostradumbas category this year is The Omen must go, men. We got a whole different number 1 guy who is pretty special in his own right, and for the moment is still cheap, not to mention a whole other Harris, Strong, and whoever we draft. I believe we're finally getting rid of Ty Montgomery, AKA the dull swiss army knife, and that's fine. It doesn't make us thin at the position.

Not saying that I think Omen has a horrible terrible injury that rules out his ever contributing. I have no knowledge of that situation (though I believe it's minor.) The only knowledge I have is he's a NE Patriot running back past his rookie deal with another guy who makes him expendable and a couple more with additional, intriguing skill sets. NE does the RB position better than anybody. Well, as well as anybody.

As a fan, do not fall in love with a NE running back. Do not buy the Jersey, I will no longer counsel not to learn their names, that kills the joy of the game. But yeah don't get attached.

The Omen will be gone and I want that to happen for him. Why? Because I respect what he brought this team for his years here. He deserves to be the focus for an offense somewhere, and he can do the job. We are designed not to make a star at RB. May he be signed in the NFC

 

[Wozzy]

I read an article where they could clear another 30 million with some restructure/cuts. It didn't elaborate on how though. Miguel probably knows.

They could extend better players like Hunter Henry. Through ups and downs, a rookie QB, and the worst offensive coordinator in history he been exactly what he was billed as in free agency... one of the better TE's in football. He had trouble staying healthy earlier in his career, but he has been an ironman for the Pats. He could be extended, not too far, but reasonably so.

This is true about a bunch of our foundation type players. While our QB's are on rookie deals, the team could pay a lot of cap upfront, build a great team around them and clear the decks of cap... so when time comes to pay one of those QB's they'll have cap room to maneuver.

At this point, whether they're good or not, all it comes down to is the accumulation and development of talent. They have no shortage of resources.

 

[Pape]

Overthecap shows the Patriots at $155M projected in 2024. Even if we assume around $30M of that is carryover which won’t exist, that’s still $125M left. Seems like there are opportunities to extend some players like Judon or Henry to lower their 2023 cap hits and place more of their cost in future seasons.

That cap space is with 31 players under contract... Though, I agree, extending a few guys is a good idea

 

[PatsFanInVa]

They could extend our better players like Hunter Henry. Through ups and downs, a rookie QB, and the worst offensive coordinator in history he been exactly what he was billed as in free agency... one of the better TE's in football. He had trouble staying healthy earlier in his career, but he has been an ironman for the Pats. He could be extended, not too far, but reasonably so.

This is true about a bunch of our foundation type players. While our QB's are on rookie deals, the team could pay a lot of cap upfront, build a great team around them and clear the decks of cap... so when time comes to pay one of those QB's they'll have cap room to maneuver. At this point, whether they're good or not, all it comes down to is the accumulation and development of talent. They have no shortage of resources.

And the long-suffered-through Jonnu could be told to play for a buck fitty or walk with the world's worst resume (and consider it a gift).

They were two shots to make sure we had 1-2 serviceable tight ends because we were striking out at the position, it seems in retrospect. You definitely keep Henry around.

 

[mgteich]

I read an article where they could clear another 30 million with some restructure/cuts. It didn't elaborate on how though. Miguel probably knows.

You can always create cap room by cutting players.
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There are about $20M of restructures available.

Belichick will probably use some later in the year to pay for end of the offseason and in-season costs. Miguel has estimated these at $10M in the past. Easy restructures are Judon, Godchaux and Wise, totaling approximately $10M. These can be done as needed and wouldn't take much time and effort.

Smith, Mills and Andrews could be restructured for a 2023 cap savings of about $8M. I suspect that these won't happen. I suspect that these players will be more likely be considered for extension which would also provide cap room. However, extensions are not usually worked on at this time of year, except for our players who are free agents.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I think DMac qualifies got the 4 year active service discount that Slater has?

No, for two reasons. One, as @Pape noted above, is that he's not on a qualifying one-year deal.

Second, there's only a certain amount of money per team per season that can be credited that way, and they've given it to Slater. (Teams can split the benefit up among multiple qualifying players.)

 

[Wozzy]

And the long-suffered-through Jonnu could be told to play for a buck fitty or walk with the world's worst resume (and consider it a gift).

They were two shots to make sure we had 1-2 serviceable tight ends because we were striking out at the position, it seems in retrospect. You definitely keep Henry around.

Jonnu’s dead cap hit means he’ll be on the team this season unless he gets traded. He hasn’t changed from the player he was when he was a Titan. The Pats offense meanwhile has been bad for a season and a season before that they had a rookie QB with an offensive coordinator who wanted a traditional FB instead of two TE sets. The best outcome for Jonnu outside of trade is to stick to the plan they had when they signed him and get some production out of him.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Jonnu’s dead cap hit means he’ll be on the team this season unless he gets traded. He hasn’t changed from the player he was when he was a Titan. The Pats offense meanwhile has been bad for a season and a season before that they had a rookie QB with an offensive coordinator who wanted a traditional FB instead of two TE sets. The best outcome for Jonnu outside of trade is to stick to the plan they had when they signed him and get some production out of him.

Far be it from me to forget the guaranteedness of Jonnu. I remember going into it when we did the Henry/Smith signings. Clearly they thought they'd get a good TE1/TE2 out of it, and we got a meh (for the money) TE1 and an invisible TE2. That said, evaluation isn't easy given all the other factors.

I'll watch and see, but you're probably right, based on memory of both those contracts being written to last.