Content Post 2nd Round Picks... The Dominoes Start to Fall

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And it's done:

The Luther Burden contract was the deal breaker for the Patriots on the guarantees... once chicago gave burden the guaranteed money, it forced the Pats hand...

 

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FYI Miguel predicted the deal would get done today, although I'm not sure if he expected the entire contract to be fully guaranteed. Either way, as usual, he was spot on.

Patscap (@patscap.bsky.social)

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bsky.app

i like miguels work, its top notch... used to be so much better when he had his website instead of going the twitter / blue sky / social media route...

you should get him to put a page on this site...

 

[WhatJustHappened]

Beginning of Camps, not really a big surprise.

 

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Beginning of Camps, not really a big surprise.

eh, its been a fairly boring offseason... the lack of movement on contracts for second round picks was at least somewhat interesting... so the top 30 picks will not get guaranteed deals... wonder if that trend will climb thru the 40's next year...

 

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the wind spilled out of the sails once Henderson signed... If anyone is curious about that, there is a thread on it... go there to discuss...

PATRIOTS NEWS Thread 'Schefter: TreVeyon Henderson gets fully-guaranteed deal'

Jul 18, 2025

Schefter: Patriots reached agreement on a fully-guaranteed deal with second-round pick TreVeyon Henderson, per source.

Reiss: Once the Dolphins' deal for OL Jonah Savaiinaea at No. 37 came in fully guaranteed -- and the Bears deal for WR Luther Burden at No. 39 did too -- it was only a matter of time before TreVeyon Henderson's deal followed suit at No. 38.

• ctpatsfan77
• Replies: 21
• Forum: PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum

I did update the most recent round of deals that were signed... Figure once the last of the numbers come to light, we can put a bow on it...

 

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29 of 32 signed & known details added

 

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31 of the 32 second round contracts are signed... won't be updating the thread anymore... the last unsigned player is Quinshon Judkins, who probably won't sign in the immediate future due to his legal issues...

@Ian don't think the final contract is needed to put a bow on this thread...

 

[BobDigital]

Not going to get too in depth right now... but seeing the difference between pick 33 (almost 12M fully guaranteed) to pick 64 (A bit over 7M with less than 2M guaranteed) is a huge difference. Being on the hook for 2M instead of 12M isn't nothing. That matters a good deal.

Those are completely different contracts. If this is how things will be going forward it arguably changes the value equation for these picks.

I know the same can be said about picks 1-32 which are drastically different in price (pick 1 being worth almost 49M and pick 32 being worth 14.6M. The difference is though many of those top 10 picks (49-26.5M) go to premium positions anyway (QB, WR, CB, LT) which cost a ton of money making them more palatable. And there there is a usually a huge and clear talent difference between picks 1-5 and picks 28-32. It makes the extra money make a lot more sense.

While there is a difference between pick 33 and pick 64 it isn't nearly as big as the first round. The positions are all over the place as well. The picks are more likely to bust and there is a huge difference between being on the hook for 12M vs 2M with those riskier picks.

This isn't to say i don't want the highest picks possible. But if you look at the pick position as a whole (contract and all) IMO this shrinks the value difference in the 2nd round. Trading down now lower into the 2nd has a hidden extra value in doing so.

Trading pick 33 for picks 59 and 64 is equal value by the chart. But now those two picks only cost you less than 4M guaranteed vs almost 12M. That to me makes this trade a slam dunk win for the trade down.

 

[Pape]

Not going to get too in depth right now... but seeing the difference between pick 33 (almost 12M fully guaranteed) to pick 64 (A bit over 7M with less than 2M guaranteed) is a huge difference. Being on the hook for 2M instead of 12M isn't nothing. That matters a good deal.

Those are completely different contracts. If this is how things will be going forward it arguably changes the value equation for these picks.

I know the same can be said about picks 1-32 which are drastically different in price (pick 1 being worth almost 49M and pick 32 being worth 14.6M. The difference is though many of those top 10 picks (49-26.5M) go to premium positions anyway (QB, WR, CB, LT) which cost a ton of money making them more palatable. And there there is a usually a huge and clear talent difference between picks 1-5 and picks 28-32. It makes the extra money make a lot more sense.

While there is a difference between pick 33 and pick 64 it isn't nearly as big as the first round. The positions are all over the place as well. The picks are more likely to bust and there is a huge difference between being on the hook for 12M vs 2M with those riskier picks.

This isn't to say i don't want the highest picks possible. But if you look at the pick position as a whole (contract and all) IMO this shrinks the value difference in the 2nd round. Trading down now lower into the 2nd has a hidden extra value in doing so.

Trading pick 33 for picks 59 and 64 is equal value by the chart. But now those two picks only cost you less than 4M guaranteed vs almost 12M. That to me makes this trade a slam dunk win for the trade down.

great analysis... adds an aspect i have never really thought about... guaranteed deals now proliferating the second round now adds an added dimension to consider... thanks Bob