Content Post CAP CRAP cheat sheet aka Dont go gently into FA

[long distance]

Its quite amazing to see the amount of conservative views regarding FA. Im sure even Bill would issue a smirk upon reading these threads.

Lets debunk some of the “Pats have only 30M cap“ and everything “costs so much“.

1. 30M+ Cap Space is NOT REALITY. Its just accounting snippet in time for the outsiders.

2. In reality Cap Space is ALWAYS FLUID/FLEXIBLE since it extends over 4 or more years.
f.e.: After the flood of restructures (happens every year w most teams) and creating piles of 2023 Cap Space across the league -
Pats fell from #4-5 to #8 in 2023 Cap Space. On the flip side - Pats are #1 by far in 2025 - since they did not borrow anything YET.

Note that you have basically 3 Cap groupings atm for 2023:
G1 : CHI, ATL -> 60-70M effective cap space (ECS)
G2 : LV, HOU, CIN, ARI, DEN, NE -> 26-36M ECS
G3 : GB, LAC - > 15-20M
The rest of the league is around 10M or less . and some are still in significant red numbers - BUF, CLE, NO - that they will have to clear by Wed.

This puts them in very competitive position with lots of leverage..

3. Over the next 3 years NE has combined 455M (projected) Cap Space or 400M ECS. That puts them comfortably at #3.
Only CHI (by c. 40M) and HOU (by c. 15M) have more . the rest of the league has SIGNIFICANTLY less.

4. Even 30M Cap Space can buy you lots of APY contracts:
f.e. lets look at 2021 “shopping spree“ spendings -- they spent around 60M 2021 cap space to sign 24 players (incl TOP 51 rule):
T.Brown (6.8M), Agholor (6.2M), Henry (6M), Judon (5.6M), Smith (5M), Newton (4.6M), Mills (3.8M), Van Noy (3.6M), God (3.2M), JC (2.6M), Wise (2.5M), Bourne (2.3M), Karras (2.2M), Anderson (2M) + further 10 players at 1M or less Cap Hit (Cap number minus TOP 51 contract) incl. starters/contributors Andrews, White, Guy, Bethel, Cody, Jakob, Folk..
This amounted to approx. 130M APY of new contracts in FA (incl Brown trade)

Note that this was COVID low league cap year where everyone was conservative and most contracts were 1y.
In normal year w more long term contracts you can shop at closer to 1:2.5 Cap:APY ratio esp. if you have solid mid class/rookie deals base signed already.

So id guesstimate 30M Cap Space could buy some 70M APY contracts - possibly more if there are more bigger ones.
(In Judon case it was 5.6M cap hit : 13.6M APY = 1:2.4 ratio)

5. NE has 60 players signed atm and have 10 Draft picks - they dont have to sign many FAs - so they can spend more on those they do.

6. They can easily create new 2023 Cap Space as they go (its their modus operandi) - and they will (“surprise“ cuts & trades among other..)

7. They dont have to worry about signing Draft picks etc too much atm.
> if they use all 10 picks at current positions the cost will be c 3.5M (TOP 51 rule) - and NOT 6-8M as some are floating around.
> going by their mo (trading down, trading out, picks for vets etc) it will probably be less than 3M
> they will be doing that after 6/1


This is not to suggest they go “ALL IN“ - just approximate show that they have a TON OF CAP to spend if they choose to.
What i do expect is that they spend at least to the cap as they always do. And that can bring in quite a few good or even some top players.

So dont go gently..

-.-

 

[RobertWeathers]

Agree.

The issue is if looking at it in a vacuum is not having a using a lot of caps space, kicking the can to future cap years or having a big dead money number.

The issue is using a lot of caps space, kicking the can to future cap years or having a big dead money number on an older, underperforming player.

If Jonnu Smith was putting up even 2018 Gronk numbers no one would be complaining.

 

[RodThePat]

This is the correct way to look at it. They have very little future money in the books and guys like Dugger and Onwenu won't be "break the bank" expensive to extend. If they are willing, the opportunity is there to sign pretty much whichever FA they want this offseason without compromising much of their finances. There's a happy medium between the way the Saints and the Patriots have approached the cap, I'll admit to getting a little antsy in terms of the overall talent level of the roster considering they have a starting QB making peanuts. If Mac allows you the flexibility to build a great roster around him, do it. Otherwise what's the point?

 

[Sicilian]

The way I usually think of it is that cap is NOT crap, but the actual number for it is much higher than the official one. There IS a limit on how much you can shuffle money around before it becomes restrictive in future years. Even with the most creative accounting, you wouldn't be able to afford pro bowlers at every position through free agency. But you have more available "space" than the cap would imply because you can shuffle every year.

 

[Ring 6]

Its quite amazing to see the amount of conservative views regarding FA. Im sure even Bill would issue a smirk upon reading these threads.

Lets debunk some of the “Pats have only 30M cap“ and everything “costs so much“.

1. 30M+ Cap Space is NOT REALITY. Its just accounting snippet in time for the outsiders.

2. In reality Cap Space is ALWAYS FLUID/FLEXIBLE since it extends over 4 or more years.
f.e.: After the flood of restructures (happens every year w most teams) and creating piles of 2023 Cap Space across the league -
Pats fell from #4-5 to #8 in 2023 Cap Space. On the flip side - Pats are #1 by far in 2025 - since they did not borrow anything YET.

Note that you have basically 3 Cap groupings atm for 2023:
G1 : CHI, ATL -> 60-70M effective cap space (ECS)
G2 : LV, HOU, CIN, ARI, DEN, NE -> 26-36M ECS
G3 : GB, LAC - > 15-20M
The rest of the league is around 10M or less . and some are still in significant red numbers - BUF, CLE, NO - that they will have to clear by Wed.

3. Over the next 3 years NE has combined 455M (projected) Cap Space or 400M ECS. That puts them comfortably at #3.
Only CHI (by c. 40M) and HOU (by c. 15M) have more . the rest of the league has SIGNIFICANTLY less.

4. 30M Cap Space can buy you lots of APY contracts:
f.e. lets look at 2021 “shopping spree“ spendings -- they spent around 60M 2021 cap space to sign 24 players (incl TOP 51 rule):
T.Brown (6.8M), Agholor (6.2M), Henry (6M), Judon (5.6M), Smith (5M), Newton (4.6M), Mills (3.8M), Van Noy (3.6M), God (3.2M), JC (2.6M), Wise (2.5M), Bourne (2.3M), Karras (2.2M), Anderson (2M) + further 10 players at 1M or less Cap Hit (Cap number minus TOP 51 contract) incl. starters/contributors Andrews, White, Guy, Bethel, Cody, Jakob, Folk..
This amounted to approx. 130M APY of new contracts in FA (incl Brown trade)

Note that this was COVID low league cap year where everyone was conservative and most contracts were 1y.
In normal year w more long term contracts you can shop at closer to 1:3 Cap:APY ratio esp. if you have solid mid class/rookie deals base signed already.

So id guesstimate 30M Cap Space could buy some 70M APY contracts - possibly more if there are more bigger ones.
(In Judon case it was 5.6M cap hit : 13.6M APY = 1:2.4 ratio)

5. NE has 60 players signed atm and have 10 Draft picks - they dont have to sign many FAs - so they can spend more on those they do.

6. They can easily create new 2023 Cap Space as they go (its their modus operandi) - and they will (“surprise“ cuts & trades among other..)

7. They dont have to worry about signing Draft picks etc too much atm.
> if they use all 10 picks at current positions the cost will be c 3.5M (TOP 51 rule) - and NOT 6-8M as some are floating around.
> going by their mo (trading down, trading out, picks for vets etc) it will probably be less than 3M


This is not to suggest they go “ALL IN“ - just approximate show that they have a TON OF CAP to spend if they choose to.
What i do expect is that they spend at least to the cap as they always do. And that can bring in quite a few good or even some top players.

So dont go gently..

-.-

One consecration though is that given only last years draft class is under contract beyond 2024, there is a limited ability to push money out to the future by restructuring.
On the other hand since there is soooo much cap space after this year, your APY calcs could be way understated as there is a great ability to sign free agents at a tiny cap hit this year with a much larger chunk hitting future caps.

 

[JR52]

Based on the quality of the AFC and the AFC East, wouldn't the best idea be to not invest in 2023/2024 (yet be within the 90% threshold) and bank on the rebound in 2025? Investing in the next two years just to have a 10-7/9-8 team with no SB chances seems not worth it. I understand BB has a different philosophy.

 

[RodThePat]

Based on the quality of the AFC and the AFC East, wouldn't the best idea be to not invest in 2023/2024 (yet be within the 90% threshold) and bank on the rebound in 2025? Investing in the next two years just to have a 10-7/9-8 team with no SB chances seems not worth it. I understand BB has a different philosophy.

Why is it that they can't contend in 2023 and 2024 again? The Dolphins had a questionable first round QB who hadn't shown all that much and all of a sudden he led the league in passer rating and ANY/A after they catered the offense to his strengths and drafted a very good receiver high in the first before adding Hill. Why can't we emulate that model? The Josh Allen Bills are very well run, but they aren't the 2004 Patriots. Aside from that, if your worry is with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, those guys will still be going strong in 2025. The biggest advantage the Pats have over those teams is a QB that makes no money, why not spend? And I'm not talking about spending on the Jonnus, Agholors and Bournes of the world, go grab elite players on offense.

 

[long distance]

Based on the quality of the AFC and the AFC East, wouldn't the best idea be to not invest in 2023/2024 (yet be within the 90% threshold) and bank on the rebound in 2025? Investing in the next two years just to have a 10-7/9-8 team with no SB chances seems not worth it. I understand BB has a different philosophy.

Browns were saving Cap for years to the all time record numbers (and piling Draft picks).
10y later they are still a mediocre team with nothing to show for . while their top picks are getting older and more expensive..

You cant buy a team. You have to be building it every day. The more competitive you are the better the building and vice versa.
Spend to the cap always - borrow from the future when it makes sense/opportunity/need - go all in when the time comes.

 

[Ring 6]

The way I usually think of it is that cap is NOT crap, but the actual number for it is much higher than the official one. There IS a limit on how much you can shuffle money around before it becomes restrictive in future years. Even with the most creative accounting, you wouldn't be able to afford pro bowlers at every position through free agency. But you have more available "space" than the cap would imply because you can shuffle every year.

The cap is very real. But there are ways to push cap into the future. Doing so seems great at the time, but it always comes back. Just like using a credit card when you don’t have cash.

 

[JR52]

Why is it that they can't contend in 2023 and 2024 again? The Dolphins had a questionable first round QB who hadn't shown all that much and all of a sudden he led the league in passer rating and ANY/A after they catered the offense to his strengths and drafted a very good receiver high in the first before adding Hill. Why can't we emulate that model? The Josh Allen Bills are very well run, but they aren't the 2004 Patriots. Aside from that, if your worry is with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, those guys will still be going strong in 2025. The biggest advantage the Pats have over those teams is a QB that makes no money, why not spend? And I'm not talking about spending on the Jonnus, Agholors and Bournes of the world, go grab elite players on offense.

My concern is certainly more on the AFC than the AFC East. 2023 Cap Hits:

Joe Burrow - $11.5M
Trevor Lawrence - $10M
Justin Herbert $8.5M

Mac at $4.3 isn't some advantage.

 

[Wozzy]

Just because you can do something, doesn’t make it smart. People love to point at 2021, that year was an outlier, not the norm. After 2019 ended they had roughly 12 starters or major contributors who were free agents including the QB position… and they were in cap hell.

In 2020 they didn’t do much to add debt, paid off their dead cap and cleared bad contracts off the books. In the 2021 offseason they needed starters, a lot of them. That’s why the payroll splurge looks so odd, in the twenty years prior the free agents they were signing were mostly their own and it was spread out. In 2021 it was one large shopping spree.

This year probably won’t look like 2021 even though they can afford it, they don’t need that many starters. Also many of our own free agents, 2023/2024, will need extending. Fans won’t consider these free agent signings but they actually are.

There’s a cutoff date in a couple of months or so where vested vets no longer count against the compensatory award process for next offseason. It’s likely they don’t do a lot, fans will moan BB is sitting on his hands, then they make a bunch of rapid fire signings at the end of free agency.

It’s also possible they feel they have enough draft picks for next season and go hog wild in free agency. We’ll see…

 

[JR52]

Browns were saving Cap for years to the all time record numbers (and piling Draft picks).
10y later they are still a mediocre team with nothing to show for . while their top picks are getting older and more expensive..

You cant buy a team. You have to be building it every day. The more competitive you are the better the building and vice versa.
Spend to the cap always - borrow from the future when it makes sense/opportunity/need - go all in when the time comes.

Sure, we should continue to build the team but I believe it should be focused on maximizing later years vs. 2023.

 

[archstanton543]

Why is it that they can't contend in 2023 and 2024 again? The Dolphins had a questionable first round QB who hadn't shown all that much and all of a sudden he led the league in passer rating and ANY/A after they catered the offense to his strengths and drafted a very good receiver high in the first before adding Hill. Why can't we emulate that model? The Josh Allen Bills are very well run, but they aren't the 2004 Patriots. Aside from that, if your worry is with Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lawrence, those guys will still be going strong in 2025. The biggest advantage the Pats have over those teams is a QB that makes no money, why not spend? And I'm not talking about spending on the Jonnus, Agholors and Bournes of the world, go grab elite players on offense.

The Phins also traded some heavy draft capital to bring in one of the best receivers in the league. Do you want the Pats to something similar when there are tons more holes on the team they need to find long-term solutions to (OT, CB, S, TE, OG, P, K)?

 

[long distance]

Sure, we should continue to build the team but I believe it should be focused on maximizing later years vs. 2023.

The better you spend now the better you will be maximizing later years. Nothing happens by waiting..

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

There is flexibility to spend more but id rather not borrow too much from future cap until we are certain this team is heading towards contention and we see more of what kind of qb mac is. I dont want to be the what the dolphins will be in a few years, and if tua continues to miss time they will have zero to show for it. Might not even if he stays healthy.

32 m as is still gives us the flexibility to go out and splash on a d hop, upgrade lb in fa or one of the guys recently cut, and resign peppers/ekuale while addressing rt/cb in the draft to give us a pretty nice roster. Maybe harmon as a stopgap fs if need be. This can be done with minimal borrowing from future caps. See what you have with the upgrades and actual coaches on offense and spend big next year if we feel we can be legit contenders.

 

[JR52]

The better you spend now the better you will be maximizing later years. Nothing happens by waiting..

This is not how NFL contracts typically work. Unless you are talking about getting guys under contract for under market deals but it's not that easy.

 

[RodThePat]

The Phis also traded some heavy draft capital to bring in one of the best receivers in the league. Do you want the Pats to something similar when there are tons more holes on the team they need to find long-term solutions to (OT, CB, S, TE, OG, P, K)?

Absolutely. I'd be thrilled if they could do the AJ Brown deal right now, it would transform this offense just like it did for the Eagles. And come on, OG isn't a hole, P and K are super cheap to replace and they have two starting TEs under contract. If you're asking me whether I think they could bring back Jonathan Jones and find a safety and a tackle in FA/reasonably high in the draft, I 100% do. Why do we act like having ONE SINGLE big money player will destroy their capability to put together a roster?

 

[archstanton543]

Absolutely. I'd be thrilled if they could do the AJ Brown deal right now, it would transform this offense just like it did for the Eagles. And come on, OG isn't a hole, P and K are super cheap to replace and they have two starting TEs under contract. If you're asking me whether I think they could bring back Jonathan Jones and find a safety and a tackle in FA/reasonably high in the draft, I 100% do. Why do we act like having ONE SINGLE big money player will destroy their capability to put together a roster?

One bad high-priced contract can absolutely hamper your team, yes. We all know BB is loathe to give out those types of deals. Maybe that's not the way the NFL runs these days but I don't suspect him to change his philosophy now.

If they spend a first, second, two fourths and a 6th round picks on a WR and then extend him for big bucks, that's going to hamper the team's ability to build the roster elsewhere, yes. That's the type of move you make if you feel your team is one or two players away from contention or you're in panic mode.

They're going to need to draft and develop replacement for their two free agent TE's. The time to do that is now. Not when both guys are going to walk out the door in a year.

 

[Pape]

The only thing I will say is the way the Patriots currently maneuver under their self imposed cap constraints let them be competitive for an extremely long period of time... they used their cap flexibility to bring in and retain players (some willing to do home team discounts, some not) for an extended period... yes we got lucky with the key piece of the overall architecture... theres no denying that... that allowed us to maintain a relatively talented roster over an extended period... We avoided the boom/bust cycles so many teams tend to go thru... Now we are in year 3 of a rebuild... and there are fits and starts that annoy most of us because the talent level hasn't risen to the top yet... some of the pains are self inflicted, but eh, even Paul Brown and Vince Lombardi made mistakes...

Maintaining a steady course will, hopefully, allow us the chance to find the talent needed to become competitive once again, and open that "window of opportunity" once more, instead of us entering those boom and bust cycles...

 

[Wozzy]

The only thing I will say is the way the Patriots currently maneuver under their self imposed cap constraints let them be competitive for an extremely long period of time... they used their cap flexibility to bring in and retain players (some willing to do home team discounts, some not) for an extended period... yes we got lucky with the key piece of the overall architecture... theres no denying that... that allowed us to maintain a relatively talented roster over an extended period... We avoided the boom/bust cycles so many teams tend to go thru... Now we are in year 3 of a rebuild... and there are fits and starts that annoy most of us because the talent level hasn't risen to the top yet... some of the pains are self inflicted, but eh, even Paul Brown and Vince Lombardi made mistakes...

Maintaining a steady course will, hopefully, allow us the chance to find the talent needed to become competitive once again, and open that "window of opportunity" once more, instead of us entering those boom and bust cycles...

This stuff about Brady being here for two decades as the ultimate elixir is repeated so often it actually becomes gospel... it's total nonsense.

Nobody will become another Brady, set that completely aside.

Suppose Mac becomes Kirk Cousins under O'Brien, suppose Zappe becomes Drew Brees or Brees-lite...

They don't need a savior, they simply need quality QB play. About half the team in the NFL have that or better...QB's aren't magical unicorns.

Also QB's alone aren't why teams are winning rings while the other 15 teams with good to great QB's aren't.

It's because the better team almost always wins. The Pats need to build the best team.