Questions for everyone who thinks the Patriots are going to dig their heels in for the #11 pick in the draft:
1. How many players have been given a first-round tender in the last 8-10 years and signed on with another team, with their new team willing to give up their first round pick?
2. Do you believe that, of all the franchise-type players who received a first-round tender, Malcolm Butler would be the one who breaks this tradition (of no one even considering giving up their first round pick) because he is that good?
I think it's crazy to believe the Patriots are going to get the Saints #11 overall pick. In addition to the fact that teams never give up their first round picks to sign an RFA, (a) this is a very strong draft, and (b) the Saints pick is #11; it's not like they are picking late in the first round. Any reports that the Patriots are expecting the #11 overall pick can be explained by their justified paranoia that they will be accused and punished for talking about an unsigned player. To cover for this, they are going by the book, which is that since they haven't talked to the Saints, they would follow NFL protocol which is that the Saints would give up their own first round pick. That hardly means they actually mean that or expect to get it. If they said anything otherwise, it looks fishy, like a deal was already worked out.
Teams treat their first round picks like a pot of gold. That being said, it is possible the Saints are willing to trade #31 back to the Patriots, as that move would make more sense.
Chandler Jones got us a second round pick last year...he is considered an elite pass rusher and would have at least as high a market value as Butler, probably even higher. Although Arizona did not have a long-term deal in place with him which may have increased the trade risk, they seemed quite sure they would sign him to a long-term deal and break the bank.