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Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. pats_premi

    pats_premi Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I agree with your assessment, but I was hoping I’m wrong about his ceiling. I like his effort on every snap, kind of reminded me of Ninkovich. So I agree with sad face.
     
    Last edited: Apr 9, 2019

  2. kennyb

    kennyb In the Starting Line-Up

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    What are your thoughts about jonathan abrams of Mississippi state?

    Your reports are great to read. Food for thought to be sure.
     
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  3. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    JJ Arcega-Whiteside – WR Stanford

    6'2 225lbs. He didn't do anything at the combine. At his pro day (weighing 223) he posted a 4.48-49 40, a 34 VJ, 118 BJ. Considering his size none of his test were impressive but they weren't terrible either. I think everyone was hoping for a bit better but he hit the marks he had to. He has been the top WR at Stanford 2 years in a row and considering the QBs he has posted good numbers. The numbers were more inconsistent than I would have liked though. The best defenses he faced were probably Washington and ND and he was held to 41 yards total in those games. He faced a number of other good defenses though and had very good days vs them. So maybe it matters, maybe not.

    The good. Very shifty for his size. Very solid box out technique usually. Very strong hands gives him a good chance to hold on through contact. Has a solid get off the line. Shows good physicality when going for contested balls.

    The Bad. While shifty he isn't quick. While he has a good box out technique it isn't perfect and at the next level he's unlikely to face smaller CBs on the outside as much. An okay run blocker but not the run blocker he should be. Very little YAC ability. Plays slower than his 4.50 time. Doesn't tend to get much separation and so is dependent on contested catches to a viable option.

    I see this prospect about the same way I see K'Neal Harry. So I will just stand by what I said there and apply it to Whiteside. I think it's hard to say which of these 2 will be better when they seem so similar. I think this guy can work well as a #2 WR but IMO if you want to be a #1 you need to be able to separate. Guys who can be top WRs without getting separation are the exception, not the rule. Grade 5.4
     
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  4. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I'll do him tomorrow. : )
     
  5. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Johnathan Abram – FS Miss State

    5'11 205lbs. At the combine he ran a 4.45 40 and did a 116 BJ. I couldn't find any information about doing any other events at the Miss State pro day. He has 2 years as a starter. Not much else to say in this intro. Let's go to the tape.

    The Good. His speed shows up well on tape. Once he gets going in a straight line it's unlikely to be out run. Has good coverage skills. So far looks to be the closest thing to a CB in this safety class. Played against some of the top talent in this draft and didn't look out of place. Good run defense.

    The bad. Lacks first step burst. Often loses balance when he tries to sharply change direction,which slows him down even more. Not a great tackler. Dives at feet too often. Doesn't seem to be a big play kind of guy. Not as physical as you'd like. Blitzed a lot but never seemed to get there.

    Overall. Abrams is probably one of the safer options in the draft for his position. His game clearly has some issues but as far as coverage he might be the most ready to go option from the FS perspective. He still has a lot of holes in his game particularly when it comes to impact plays, but he played at a consistently good level. His tape vs the WRs of Ole Miss and the TEs of Iowa was solid and looks encouraging. I think he is better off playing a middle to deep FS spot when not in coverage. The single issue I have the most concern about is his tackling. Not to say it's bad but as a FS you're the last time of defense at times and I don't like feet divers. That should be a fixable. Grade 5.7
     
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  6. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Love your thread and I don't mean to be antagonistic, but I really don't understand how you can come away from watching Abram and think he's not physical. This guy was trying to start fights in every game I watched. Huge hits, after the play altercations, up in everyone's face -- he's the most physical, alpha-dog safety I've seen in the last couple of years. I'm genuinely surprised that you have that different of a take on Abram. He rag-dolled Irv Smith multiple times when they played Alabama. I think he's an in the box, pseudo-linebacker type player. Fascinating how different our evals are! :)
     
  7. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I didn't watch his tape v Alabama. I guess I'll have to go back and do that. Oddly enough it's the only tape of him I didn't watch on youtube and i usually make it a point to watch the Alabama tape if they played that team. Must have just missed it.

    As for him not being as physical as I'd like when I say that it has more to do with the run game than the pass game. Yes he will trash talk and hit WRs when he gets the chance but when he goes to try to make a play in the run game against slightly bigger bodies I saw a lot of diving at feet and not taking RBs on straight ahead, even the small ones.

    I don't consider pushing around a WR trying to catch a ball showing much in the way of physicality. That being said if he did man handle Irv Smith like you said that would certainly change my opinion of him a bit.
     
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  8. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I assume the play you're talking about is at 9:18? It's a nice play and shows a bit more strength than I thought he had. I don't know if it's exactly legal though XD

    While I do like his attitude I feel comfortable sticking with my grade on him I think. He can bring a little extra value if your team really needs a tone setter.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 11, 2019
  9. patfanken

    patfanken PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Bob, thanks for the TONS of information and insights in these 9 pages...so far. But I have a request.

    I saw a number of WR reports, and while I think WR's are vastly over rated as a position group, we clearly have a need to get faster, taller and younger at the position. The guy I think gives the Pats the combination of draft value AND skill is Andy Isabella.

    He seems to be a guy who can play both inside and out. He has GREAT speed and quickness, AND possibly could last until the Pats pick in the 3rd round.

    So here are my questions on him.

    a. Are you going to do a report on him?

    b. What do you think his draft range is?
     
  10. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Yes I am. Here are all the players I plan to do reports on just so people know : ) If there is someone not on this list you want just tell me : ) I'm kind of spacing out the WRs a bit cause I don't want to end up doing a bunch of defensive players in a row at the end.

    S – 2 - Juan Thornhill, Amani Hooker.
    WR – 5 - Kelvin Harmon, Deebo Samuel, Miles Boykin, Emmanuel Hall, Andy Isabelle
    TE – 2 -Kaden Smith, Trevon Wesco
    CB – 3 - Rock Ya-sin, Julian Love, Tayvon Mullen
    Edge/DE – 4 Jachai Polite, Zach Allen, Jaylon Ferguson, Oshane Ximines.
    DT – 3 - Khalen Sanders, Gerald Willis?, Christian Wilkins

    I was going to do more LBs but honestly after looking just a bit at them I lost all ambition to do it. None of them really interest me much besides late pick athletic long shots maybe.
     
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  11. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Good list. Ben Banogu perhaps? Charles Omenihu? And Anthony Nelson would be one I’d enjoy.
     
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  12. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Andy Isabella – WR Mass

    5'9 188lbs. Andy had a very good combine. A 4.31 40, 3CT and 20YS were all top or close to the top. His bench and VJ were Good. His BJ was slightly below average. Clearly a very good athlete who along with being a slot WR has very fast speed which could translation to an outside option potential even with his lack of size. When it comes to production few WRs can match up with what Andy did last year, totally 1698 yards and 13 TDs. The year before a he had very solid 1020 yards and 10 TDs. YPC went up from 15.7 to 16.6. Sadly he played very little top end competition, but he also didn't have the best team around him offensively.

    The Good. Speed and quickness show up well. Route running is already pretty solid given his limited experience at the position. Is use to having to make difficult catches due to inaccurate throws. Has proven as much as possible considering his situation. Able to make guys miss. Can be slippery and manages to dive forward even when caught.

    The Bad. As one would expect, his run blocking has limitations. Doesn't catch as cleanly as you'd like at times. Still a better athlete than football player in many ways. Lacks a lot of the little moves and tricks a WR usually needs for sustained success. Can he continue to be successful based off only speed and quickness? Hasn't been able to deal with contact down field when the hand fighting starts on tight coverage. Doesn't seem likely to break big plays from the slot.

    Overall. He fits the prototype for a slot guy from a size and quickness perspective but is better as an outside burner. I think he should mix the two. Being an outside guy is inconsistent and you want him to get the ball more than a few times a game. I honestly don't have a feel for how good he'll be. To deny he has the potential to be a top WR in the NFL is foolish. However, he has many things that need to be polished. At least he seems to be a bust proof option. It wouldn't surprise me if he needs 3 years to reach 700 yards and does that consistently for his career. It wouldn't surprise me if his speed instantly translates with 1000+ yards year 1. Either way he will be a productive player at some point. That near certainty is worth a lot, as is his upside. However, the fact he's a liability as a run blocker in either scenario hurts his stock a bit. Grade 6.1
     
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    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
  13. BUSTAMOVE

    BUSTAMOVE Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Bob how do you feel about N’Keal Harry WR. If you have already addressed this then I will look and find it
     
  14. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I did him already. Page 5 post 83 : )
     
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  15. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Zach Allen – DE – Boston College

    6'4 281lbs. His his combine was pretty solid and he hit good marks overall considering his 281lbs. His worst event was the bench which was only below average. Has 3 years of solid data and has faced a few top schools. It is worth noting vs the 3 best schools he played against he record 0 sack and only 2 TFLs. Well below his averages.

    Good. Is a work horse who doesn't come off the field. As has been said before he has very good run defense. Can play all over the line. The pass rush is good enough to be respectable. Doesn't seem to commit negative plays ever. I don't think I saw a flag or him ever just get beat badly.

    Bad. Lack of impact plays. When he needs to defender a longer edge he can be beat to the outside due to lack of speed. Limited in his pass rush ability and options. I don't like him around the edge at all. For his size his bull rush seems lacking. Not a fluid player. Isn't hard for the offense to play around. If you don't run directly into his zone he doesn't have the speed to help his team pursue.

    Overall. Allen is an interesting prospect. I think he'll be picked at a spot below where he should be cause people will reach up the high upside and more pass rush oriented prospects. It's clearly a passing game these days but that doesn't mean a guy like Allen can't have value. He isn't only a run down player. I think he's the kind of guy you want on your DL but clearly he isn't a star. Limited upside, low down side, high volume of good (not great) snaps. IMO Zach is the perfect 4th best DL man on your team and will probably end up with more snaps than your top 3 guys in the end. Grade 5.5
     
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  16. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Trayvon Mullen – CB Clemson

    6'1 199lbs. He ran a 4.46, BJ 123inches and VJ of 34.5. Both of his jumps could have been better but they were good enough considering his 40 time. At his pro day he benched 7 times and had a 7.08 3CT. His stats were okay and has 2 years starting.

    The Good. Shows good effort in run defense, but the results could use work. Plays up to his size and length but isn't a 'big' corner. When he plays press he usually holds up well. Hard to beat over the top.

    The Bad. He trouble changing directions quickly. Lacks short aware quickness and gets beat in open space vs sharp horizontal cuts. When it comes jump balls he gets grabby if he doesn't feel he has an absolute advantage. Trouble tracking the ball in the air when he doesn't get to face towards it. Sometimes cheats a little before the snap by taking a step backwards to get a running start.

    Overall. When I look at Mullen I see a player whose rather typical. Also any CB that gets to work behind that Clemson DL need to be evaluated just a tad differently IMO. To me what sticks out is his inability to deal with quickness or anything that isn't a vertical route 1 on 1. Not to say he'll give up a big play doing it, but he'll give up a nice window. I think he's probably better off in zone than man. His press technique should be his bread and butter in man, but I want him having help over the top when he does it. A #2 CB who should mostly be asked to play zone or press man with safety help. I see him as a fairly high bust potential player. The holes in his game are potentially very exploitable if they aren't fixed. It isn't like they can't be fixed a little (or worked around) so he has an okay chance to succeed. Grade 4.8
     
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  17. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Christian Wilkins – DT Clemson

    6'3 315lbs. Considering his weight he received very good marks at the combine. He had a very productive final year statistically. 50 tackles 14 TFL 5.5 sacks. OF course he's a proven player who produced in other years as well.

    The Good. Elite lateral pursuit for a man his size. Good get off the line. Good amount of ways to get past the line and into the back field. At his best near the goal line when it comes to run defense. Can play all over the line.

    The Bad. Not the dominating run defender he should be given his size. Sometimes leaves his feet and loses his balance in a hurry to get into the back field and takes himself out of the play. Play to play consistency isn't what you'd like it to be.

    Overall. There isn't much here that I think I can tell you that you don't already know. The only question is exactly how where a player like him deserves to go in round 1. While IMO he was clearly the top dog in that Clemson line I believe just as much as he helped them he was helped by them. He has a few parts of his game that could be improved but the big thing is he has no weaknesses. At worst he's above average in his worst skill. And the most important thing is he rushes the passer and gets pressure very well for a guy his size. But I don't see him as a truly elite player. 6.7
     
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  18. BUSTAMOVE

    BUSTAMOVE Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    Hey Bob. I love this Post. You obviously do endless work to give us a educated understanding pre and draft day. Thanks Pal Much appreciated
     
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  19. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    Can you give me a list of your top 5 who you think will be there at 32?
    Appreciate the time and work you put in?.
     
  20. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I'll give it a shot, but i don't know how other teams think. My top 5 who are somewhat likely to be there are Jeffery Simmons - DT, AJ Brown - WR, Marquise Brown - WR, Dre'Mont Jones – DT and Dexter Lawrence – NT/DT.

    I like Jeffrey Tillery more Lawrence, but his off field issues make me not want to take him in round 1 and Lawrence isn't much of a downgrade. Of course I think Warring will be there but I doubt anyone takes him before 64 even though I personally really like him.

    As for a wild card pick if they take Hakeem Butler at 32 I wouldn't hate it. I see it as a bit of a risky pick for round 1 but his upside is absolutely tremendous.

    The only thing I would absolutely hate is if they do what it seems everyone is saying and pick Irv Smith - TE. I just don't see why anyone would think there are only 31 better prospects in this draft.

    Also OL wouldn't be a bad pick potentially but as I said, I don't judge them well so I kind of gave up on trying. I think there are some potentially good ones who may be worth pick 32. I just don't see it as a need for this year or something that can be helped by drafting this year. the solution is Wynn or a vet, period.
     
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