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Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Case Winovich – DE Michigan

    6'3 256lbs. Had a interesting combine with a good 40, 3CT, 20YS and a bad bench, VJ and BJ. I think it's interesting how fast and quick he is while being so bad at the VJ and BJ. For me I think the events he did well are more important. He had a nice college career. He's coming out later than most prospects and he'll be 24 before he plays a snap of NFL football.

    The Good. Brings a lot of emotion to the game. Is fairly polished with a number of moves and ways to win. Good chance to instantly impact. Very strong for his size and seems to always push whoever he's on back. His rip move is pretty damn nasty. Cool hair!

    The Bad. Was a pretty much a fully developed man playing against developing men for the past 2 years. You need to wonder if his late entry effects his upside. Has only 1 PD his entire career. Doesn't look to have the ability bend after getting up field. Makes it hard for him to win from the outside in. Hard for him to change the momentum of his direction. If the play gets away from him he'll have a hard time recovering.

    I have some reservations about this player. First I wonder how much room he has to grow at this point. Second I worry about his inability to win going around the edge. For a DE this is a pretty huge hole to have in your game and very few can over come it. That all maybe being true, I think he is an NFL ready player as is and should come in week 1 and give you something. I just don't have high hopes of a big jump in the following years. Low risk, okay reward. Grade 5.2
     
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    Last edited: Apr 6, 2019
  2. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Re above

    I don’t think bend is that important an attribute for a Patriots pass rusher because that tends not to be how we rush. I think Winovich would be better served in the later Ninkovich/Van Noy role - a linebacker that serves as a sub rusher and blitzer.
     
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  3. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    What are your thoughts about him playing OLB? Like manx posted.
     
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  4. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Honestly I have no idea. In the tape I watched I didn't see him do much of that so I would just be guessing how he projects. Also it depends on the kind of OLB role you picture.

    Almost all the tape I saw was him playing on the line. As for being a sub pass rusher I could totally see that. He also looks like he can be easily slotted as a pass rushing DT on 3rd downs. I saw him rush from the interior a number of times successfully. As long as he isn't playing in open space I think he can fit well along a DL. If you're asking me if I want him playing in space where he needs to change directions quickly or change his momentum quickly then the answer is i'm not a fan of the idea.

    If you're asking if I like him as a OLB/DE whose duty is to get to penetrate and hold the edge then sure. As far as him not being able to bend I don't think that will mean he will have a bad career. But it's better to be able to win in more ways if possible.
     
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  5. reflexblue

    reflexblue PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was thinking along the line of Akeem Ayers.
     
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  6. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    No fan at all of drafting Winovich where his likely range is (73 to 97). There should be better DEs than him still available at 56/64/73.
     
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  7. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Deionte Thompson – FS Alabama

    6'1 195lbs. Thompson didn't compete at the combine due to an injury. He also missed the Alabama pro day (There were 2 and he missed both). He played his first full season this past year and managed some impressive stats. Let's go right into the tape.

    This is a prospect I've seen ranked all over the place perhaps more than any other safety and I see why. If there's one word I'd use to describe him it would be inconsistent. On one play he looks like a first rounder, on the next he look like an UDFA. Overall the more I watched the clearer the picture became. This is a player who lives and dies by his ability diagnose plays.

    The fact he can't routinely diagnose plays correctly could be a big issue. He'll need to depend on that to be successful at the next level. When he isn't early to understand what's going on a lot of his problems show up. He's a low tackler who often leaves his feet and dives. If you're there on time this can work. If you're a little late the offensive player gets a chance to make you miss. For a FS he really lacks the straight line speed you'd want. He has injury concerns due to his lanky frame. He did manage to stay healthy last year, but it is bit concerning.

    It's all about risk vs reward Thompson. If you buy on this player you're buying on him to become the player you see on tape sometimes. 'If he hits his potential may well be the best safety in this draf!'. At least that is what some of people have said. Personally I don't agree. I find he lacks too much athleticism. Even if he hits all on his potential he'll never reach a pro bowl IMO. With so many problems and a limited upside I can't picture wanting to take him before day 3. Grade 4.6
     
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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2019
  8. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Well I wouldn't take him with pick 73 either. But I think we get too wrapped up on upside after the first 2 rounds. If you can get contributors who maybe have limited upside but are likely solid hits in the late 3rd and 4th to me that's a win.

    I would agree that generally with the first 80 or so picks you'd like guys with high upside. Something I don't believe Winovich has. After a while though a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. Winovich would be an incredibly safe bet for a late 3rd rounder. You rarely see someone that late who you can be fairly sure of contributing to your team.
     
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  9. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I think AJ Brown will have the best year of any WR. He is the most ready to play right now out of anyone. Campbell will have an okay year but any play he touches the ball will be a play solely designed for him. OCs are not a fan of those kind of plays and neither am I.

    Everyone on offense how to learn how every play works so you don't want to have to make more than needed. Most plays have multiple options which allow you to use them more than once. Plays where Campbell will get the ball will mostly be plays designs just for him. That gives everyone on offense extra work as they're plays you really can't use again cause they are single option.

    I think theres a limit to how much they will use him if he can't pick up the WR duties beyond a few routes where as a guy like AJ Brown could be out there for every single play.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 7, 2019
  10. ChrisR2223

    ChrisR2223 Pro Bowl Player

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    I'll go Isabella or Boykin
     
  11. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I think AJ Brown is the better WR and will be higher than Campbell on my board but, I’m talking about year one, something notorious for rookie WRs here and I just think it’ll be easier to get production out of Campbell early than Brown.
     
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  12. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    It is possible Campbell will have a better first year with more yards. I don't think it will happen but you're right that it isn't a crazy position to have or anything.
     
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  13. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Foster Moreau – TE LSU

    6'4 253lbs. He had a very good combine finishing at or near the top 5 in everything. Clearly he checks all the testable athletic boxes along with having size for the position. His production the last few years hasn't been much. Totally about 270 yards per year. He never suffered a major injury as far as I can tell.

    The first thing I noticed was his blocking. It wasn't hard as that was most of what he did. His run blocking is good. Not the best I've seen but very good. Worthy of an inline TE. The thing about his blocking that really stuck out to me was his pass blocking. At times he was left 1 on 1 with a DE. Sometimes he got beat badly but he usually held his own. A TE able to do a passable imitation of an OT isn't common. This gives him a decent amount of hidden value.

    His pass catch was very hard to grade due to lack of reps. All the games I looked at had no catches or a single catch. Eventually I had to pull up a full game and fast forward just to get a workable sample haha. The best was the LSU vs Rice game. If you wanna see it for yourself pull it up on youtube. It should be a 2:04:02 video.(not linking due to fair use). The plays are where I saw him make a catch or run a legit route were at 3:50, 18:44, 28:00, 45:15, 1:03:15, 1:17:33, 1:26:30.

    Frankly his play didn't match up to athleticism. Either due to design I only saw him run 2 kinds of routes. He's a fairly slow route runner. At times he looks like he's going half speed and his lateral quickness isn't good. He doesn't pluck the ball out of the air and often lets it get close or into his body. When he finally gets the ball in his hands he becomes a different player. Everything speeds up and get sharper. He suddenly looks fluid in his movements and when he burst north to south with power he can get a lot of yard quickly.Not much shake and bake to but he can give you one tiny move now and again. Clearly a north south style player.

    Overall has a good foundation when it comes to blocking in all areas. I see upside potential in his pass catching and think a good coaching staff can get more out of him than we've seen. Still very raw but has untapped potential that his coaching staff clearly didn't even give him the chance to explore. Grade 5.1
     
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    Last edited: Apr 9, 2019
  14. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Dre'Mont Jones – DT – Ohio State

    6'3 281 lbs. His combine was unimpressive. He score among the low end in the 40 and 3CT and only had an okay VJ, BJ and 20YS. Considering he was on the lighter end of the DL spectrum these scores weren't good. His stats in his sophomore and junior year okay. He made a big jump in production his senior year. Overall the lack of test results is a little bit concerning but let's see the tape.

    I don't understand why he didn't do better on the VJ and BJ. He clearly has a very good first step. It's rare to see a DT as quick as Jones. Going by pure first step burst alone he may be the best DT in this draft. He really knifes up field in a hurry if he gets an opening. He reminds me a bit of certain not to be named patriots Patriots draft pick that didn't term out so well. At least when it comes to the first step burst.

    That isn't to say the first step is all he brings to the table. He has a few very polished moves and a couple unconventional but interesting ones. From what I can tell his MO is this: 1. Knife through defends with his sudden first step if possible. 2: If no opening engage and do a rip/push move and get the the defenders side. 3: If this fails either do a spin or back away completely and quick half circle around the LOS to attack the other side. His mind set is get up field at all cost.

    Sometimes this doesn't work out so well. On occasion he is in such a hurry to get up field his momentum and good OL blocking techniques carries behind or away from the play. Also when an OL man gets his hands on him solidly he is a guy who can't anchor and is usually pushed back I'm also concerning about his habit of backing away and circling around the LOS to get a different angle. On tape it looks fun and impressive but it seems potentially reckless.

    All that aside you need to like a DT who can attack from the interior like Jones. He'll make plenty of plays and cause disruption but there will be times he'll be out of position and suddenly a big run lane opens up. If coached up this will get under control but he will also lose some of his pass rush impact. So there is a give and take there. Also it's worth pointing out his style while abusing the bigger bulkier DTs didn't do as well vs more athletic ones. Not to say he was shut down but there was a notable decline in actually getting home and making impact plays. He still got into the back field and causes pressured but it was managed. In the NFL he could run hot and cold debating on the type of IOL he faces on a week to week basis. Grade 6.5
     
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  15. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Amani Oruwariye – CB – Penn State

    6'2 205lbs. He had a solid combine. He did well pretty well in the 40, bench, 3CT. Did okay in the VJ and 20YS and badly in the BJ. The notable things to me are how he did in the 3CT and 20YS. You would expect those to not be his events. The 3CT in particularly good for someone his size. His stats were fine last year but we didn't get much tape of him playing against top end WRs which leaves that question open.

    The Good. Fast to react in a zone scheme. Constantly reading the QBs eyes. Uses his length well in jump ball situations. Quick reaction time. Short area quickness shows up. Rare for a CB his size. Not physical, but shows ability to deal with physical WRs a bit.

    The bad. Run defense is usually passive. Often waits and reacts as the play develops rather than forcing the issue. A few times he focused too much on the QB and not enough on his man, allowing separation. Plays like a CB whose 15 lbs lighter. Sometimes leaves too big of a buffer at the snap. Doesn't trust his speed and maybe correctly.

    Overall. He's a very good zone player. Quick to react when he sees the ball is about to come but his ability to get there are time is dependent on how close to the play he is. I'm not saying he's slow, just not overly quick. A fast ball can get in there before he has time to react unless he's right on top of the play, but that's true with most CBs. At least his reaction to the play is on point and he will force the QB to throw the ball on time and fast. If the zone is such where he is in striking distance and the QB wants to force it he has the ability to make a play on the ball like few CBs can.

    I noticed him slip a few times on the field trying to suddenly change direction. I don't know if it's just a fluke or if it means something. It's just worth noting. As far as zone CBs go Amani is one of the better ones. He also has good length and in certain match ups against WRs who are very direct in their routes can be a good man CB. However his ability to play man reliably is highly conditional in my opinion and I believe the ability to play man is the most important trait a CB can have. While his flexibility to do zone and cover certain WRs is good, the draw backs are also real. Grade 5.2
     
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  16. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    What do you think of him as a free safety convert? I know his tackling needs some work, but I like how quickly he trusts what he sees and closes to the ball.
     
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  17. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I actually never thought of that. Maybe it's worth exploring. I think his lack of long speed could be a minor issue and keep him from being truly elite at it, but he'd probably have a chance to be pretty good.
     
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  18. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Montez Sweat – DE Miss State

    6'6 260lbs. Needless to say he had a really good combine. A 4.41 at 260lbs. It reminds one of Clowney. He had a bad bench but a good VJ BJ 3CT and 20YS. Clearly he checks off everything athletic box with authority. He had very good stats back to back years. It is worth noting he didn't have one PD though. Odd for a player whose 6'6. J His stats were not as spread out as I'd like. Each year he had about 4 really dominate games statistically then was pretty silent for the rest. I feel it's worth mentioning. Tape time.

    The good. He a pretty deadly stutter step when he chooses to use it. A very strong bull rush for a man his size. Converts speed to power well. Overall solid vs the run. Rarely is he out of place.

    The bad. Has trouble getting around the edge. Not much bend. Sometimes he looks a little stiff. Doesn't an an elite go to move or strength he can depend on when push comes to shove. Overall is solid vs the run. Rarely out of place.

    Overall. I think getting to play next to Jeffrey Simmons helped him out a fair amount. I rarely saw him have to take on a double team which is something you tend to see more in top picks. Clearly has athletic upside in some areas but I don't see a diversity in pass rush moves. His burst, strength, and agility are all okay but nothing too special independently. Together they are greater than the sum of their parts but not by enough to get me really excited. A good player but and athlete but his on field performance doesn't live up to his reputation. Grade 6.1
     
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  19. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Nasir Adderley – FS – Delaware

    6'0 206lbs. He didn't do any drills at the combine. He got injured at the pro day (weighing 203lbs) but completed at least some events. He did a VJ of 39, BJ of 129, Bench of 19 and got injured running a 4.54 40. He if he would have done better if he didn't hurt himself. The tape on this player was very confusing in a lot of ways. His highlights were fun to watch but his game tape was very mixed.

    The first thing that really jumps out to you when you watch him is the lack of a true position. Mostly he's a free safety who wants to play like a strong safety. I saw a lot of single high and a lot of in the box. Sometimes even CB. No matter where he was it always seems like (to me) he wasn't where he should be.

    When single high he plays way too far back and is often not able to reach the deep corners in time (few players can). As an in the box safety his physicality is wasted. He bullies WRs well but not other positions. As a CB I don't think he has the ability to stick with his level athletes. When going backwards I don't like him much. The things I liked him doing the best were zone schemes and returning the ball.

    He seems to like the face the QB and read where the ball is coming. He does have a knack for big plays and big hits. When he gets the ball in his hands he suddenly gets faster. Probably cause the action he takes becomes more clear. A very dangerous return man. He's played against a lower level of competition and besides the big plays he made not much else stuck out to me (if that even makes sense). When I watched the senior bowl he was the same thing. He had that Int near the end on an ill advised throw while in zone, but besides that I didn't like his day.

    This has been one of the hardest players to grade. He comes off as very boom or bust in his play. He certainly had the huge plays you'd expect from a high end prospect in a small school but what about the other 95% of plays where he felt like he was exactly at the level he belonged? Bad angels, missed tackles, late to react, ect. Some of those things are fixable and some not so easily. Grade 5.1
     
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  20. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    @pats_premi Why did you give a sad face? I'd like to know what you think : )
     

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