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Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    While I really like your reports, I wish you'd double-check position averages. This thread is a must read for me, but if I can offer some critique, you consistently call combine results poor or disappointing when they're actually above average. How is 62 percentile for EDGE 40 yard dash a "bad"time? Your expectations are unrealistic, other than for high first round athletes.

    Oshane Ximines - MockDraftable
     
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  2. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    I probably should use that site more. When I saw a guy is above or below average on a certain test I'm mostly just comparing him to his peers that year and his how his weight should effect that comparison.

    So when I criticized his 40 maybe in the larger context of edge players it was okay, but for guys coming out this year it didn't hold up; particularly with his lower than average weight. That's why I called his bench good even though it wasn't in itself that impressive. I liked it for a guy his size.

    As for his 40 time for an edge defender on the lighter side I wanted better. In that same context perhaps I should have been equally hard on his BJ, VJ and 3CT time but compared to his peers this year they were pretty decent; even if historically over how many years those averages go back it wouldn't be the case. Do you know how many years their information goes back by the way? I think that be nice to know.

    Yes I do hold guys to a higher standard in some regards and I tend to not like average. I think the combine has some 300+ people a year who are tested. 150+ score above average and 150+ score below generally speaking. Less than 150 people go in the first 4 rounds and I think there's general agreement those are the ones that matter and after the crap shoot begins. So if you're not scoring above average you're usually in a bad spot. Of course the test aren't an end all be all. I'm speaking in mass generalities, and I agree that you're right. Perhaps I should have been a tad bit more generous with the 40 time comment. I'll change that.
     
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  3. primetime

    primetime Pro Bowl Player

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    The other thing is that the separation of an 80 and 60 percentile 40 time is often that of a measurement error.
     
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  4. everlong

    everlong Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I think what it depends upon the position, the measurable in correlation to other measurables and the player's style of play.

    Quick easy example. Slot receiver with an average 40 is great as long as his 3C and other short area measurables as on the elite side of things. Take an outside receiver with average size and throw in an average 40 and an average 10 yard split and you have to wonder if he's going to be able to get open at the next level.

    An edge guy who's 100% a speed rusher who has an average 3C and average 10 yard split might be in trouble. A bull rusher however who is average in those regards but has an elite bench press, broad jump and vertical jump measures up well because his fast rush is his change up.
     
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  5. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Stanley Morgan Jr. – WR Nebraska

    6'0 202 lbs. Morgan has passable size for the position. He had a solid combine. While his 4.53 40 could have been better it isn't horrible and everything else was good. The test indicate more quickness than speed. He didn't play on a top notch passing offense but was the top guy on his team for back to back years with about 1,000 yards each. That's something I like as he probably played the top defenders on the other team. Over the past 2 years we got a pretty good sample of him player higher end teams. What stuck out was his fairly consistent production. He was as likely to have a good game vs a good team as a bad team which is always a plus.

    The Good. Able to catch well through contact. Works his way back to the QB when he's in trouble. Runs routes all over the field. A very good stop and go. Fights hard for those extra yards. Comes back for the ball when needed instead of letting it hang. Strong for his size. A high effort run blocker.

    The Bad. While he fights for yards he isn't a YAC player really. Leaves feet too often when he catches passes. It delays his break after the catch. Part of that is due to his lack of height. Doesn't come out of his breaks particularly quickly or sharply. For his smaller size you'd like that to be more of a strength.

    Overall. There isn't much to hate about Morgan just like their isn't much to love about him. There's a lot to like though. The fact that he's 6'0 and ran over a 4.5 knocked him down a lot of boards and I find that a bit silly. He has more than enough ability to be a solid WR in the NFL. His willingness to run block and consistency certainly help. Also when you watch a guy sometimes some players just look like they belong in the NFL. I see Morgan a lot like I see guys like Riley Ridley and Deebo Samuel. Perhaps they don't have off the chart athleticism, but they all just have the look of guys who belong in the NFL. I don't know if he has what it takes to be a solid #2 but I'd be surprised if he doesn't make some team happy being at least a very good #3. Grade 5.0
     
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    Last edited: Apr 23, 2019
  6. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Lonnie Johnson Jr – CB Kentucky

    6'2 213 lbs. Lonnie is a pretty larger CB. Considering his size and weight he tested well in everything. In particular his explosion in the BJ and VJ were both very good. His 40 time and 3CT could have been better but considering his weight they were both pretty good and neither outright disqualifies him. I see him as more an outside CB anyway which makes his 3CT less important. He's been a big part of the Kentucky D the past 2 years. I am concerned in all that time he only had 1 Int and 9 PDs. Not to mention a low number of tackles. It makes me wonder how many actual plays he was in on.

    Tape time. I didn't come away from his tape overly impressed. He did a fair amount zone and was okay in it. When he did man I saw a few issues show up. His quickness just isn't good enough to cover a WR who can do double moves or break to the inside or outside well. He want to play straight north and south and is okay at it, but not all that good. The other issue is his long speed just didn't impress me. He looked like he ran under his 4.53 by more than I would have hoped. He often had to give up big cushions to defend the over the top and chose to not press or wasn't asked to. I think that is largely to do with fear getting beat deep and I think that's justified.

    On the upside he has pretty good physicality in run defense and pass defense. He isn't afraid to lay the wood down and hit someone. I think he's more of a developmental match up CB. He will do best on the bigger less quick WRs. His game still needs to improve in a lot of areas, particularly making big plays and learning to press better, but there clearly is talent to work with and a baseline of ability. I see bust potential, but he has a decent chance to find a role. Grade 4.3
     
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  7. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    It sucks when you realize you're not going to get to everyone you want to. If I had one more full week after Thursday i'm sure I could.
     
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  8. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    L.J. Collier – DE Texas Christian

    6'2 283 lbs. A very big and thick DE. His combine didn't go as well as some hoped but for his size I don't think it was a big issue. There has always been too much focus on the 40 time and his wasn't all that bad honestly for a guy whose 283 lbs. He only did .17 seconds worse than Bosa while carrying 17 more pounds. As for the other areas he tested on he showed good burst in his BJ. He didn't have a good 3CT or 20YS but those things don't really translate well to what a DE does. Or at least what Collier does. All that being said, it's had to call his combine a success. As far as production he had solid statistics this year. He played some good competition but the stats didn't translate against the top team wells. A bit of a red flag. In fact if you took 4 games off his schedule instead of producing 6 sacks and 11.5 TFL he would have produced 0 sacks and 2 TFL. Almost all of his splash play statistical production for the year came in those 4 contest. Not so good.

    A lot of things about seeing these numbers gave me pause. Thankfully the tape is better and justifies the buzz about him a bit. As a run defense he was hit and miss. There were a number of solid snaps and ones where he let himself get pushed back. A guy at his weight and height has to win those match ups. Simple as that. He got a fair amount of pressure and was able to win a lot of ways. His long arms in particular were pretty deadly. I think right now we are seeing a bit of an over correction for how underrated he was before. I don't see him as a slam dunk round 2 player. He has a lot of work to be done and I think his ceiling is real. He can get pressure but I don't think he'll ever be much of a finisher, and that does matter. Also he does seem to be kind of streaky. I expect that to continue. Against guys he can abuse with his wingspan he'll be successful. Against others he'll have to do the best he can. A match up and rotational DE. I do think the run D issues will get worked out. Most of the time I saw him lose he just didn't play soundly. When he did technique correctly he won as he should as the lower, stout man. A nice player but not a full time starter. Grade 5.2
     
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  9. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Kelvin Harmon – WR NC State

    6'2 221 lbs. Harmon is a large, thick WR. He looks and is strong. The combine overall was a bad showing. 40, 3CT, 20YS, VJ and BJ. He didn't do well in any of them. There's a strong potential of limited ceiling. On the field he produced well the past 2 years. Gaining 1017 and 1186 yards respectively and was the #1 WR. He had a good QB with a good cast to help him. Harmon did well vs both good and bad teams over the last 2 years but also ran a bit hot and cold at times. To the tape!

    The Good. Understands how to get open in a zone. Runs solid routes. Run blocking is usually very good (not great though). Catches the passes he should and has a nice catch radius. Attacks the ball instead of sitting on it in a zone reasonably often. Show good usage of hands and push offs to gain space at the last moment.

    The Bad. Hands are big but not as strong as you'd hope. Lack of speed and quickness shows up regularly. Sometimes has trouble getting to his block on time or blocking cleanly due to lack of speed. In the NFL that won't improve. Not a YAC player.

    Overall. I see Harmon in a lot of 2nd round mocks. Personally I just don't see it. His athletic ceiling is real and constantly shows up on tape. For a guy like him to make it in the NFL you have to be really polished. A good comp for him this year is Riley Ridley. The difference is Ridley is more polished in just about everything and his strength are more able to cover for his weaknesses. I don't get that same feeling when watching Harmon. He doesn't find ways to consistently separate well in man and his hands, hand fighting for space and savvy isn't as polished IMO. I see him as a guy who just doesn't have enough game sense to make up for his lack of talent. Maybe he can get there, but without a team willing to put him on the field and let him suffer through growing pains and it will be tough. A project with bust potential. 4.2
     
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  10. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Charles Omenihu – DE Texas

    6'5 280 lbs. He has good length and weight for the position with very long arms. He did well on the BJ and VJ. His 40 time could have been a little better considering his weight but was good enough. Overall he shows good quickness for his size. I'd say he had a pretty good combine for a 280 lb guy. He's played a decently size role for his team in the past but this year but really stepped up. He had pretty good stats, and they weren't overly bunched together. He put up stats against very good competition too. He earned every bit of his 18 TFL and 9.5 sacks.

    The Good. Can play all over the line. A good run defender. Knows how to use his long arms to win and has a pretty good bend for his size. While his speed and quickness aren't scary by themselves he is good enough at both that they need to be respected.

    The Bad. Pass rush from the interior isn't scary. Doesn't seem able to bull rush all that well which was surprising. I think it comes down to a lack of instant burst. Lack great quickness around the edge and his pass rush moves look limited.

    Overall. It starts and ends with his long arms. That tends to dictate if he'll win or not. He has enough quickness and speed to pressure IF he wins. When he can't he finds himself blocked off without much to help him recover. He'll need to improve his hand fighting. He doesn't know how to use them well yet; at leas that's my impression. As for his run defense it's good but not elite. Particularly on the inside. He should be a full time edge defender IMO. Often when he made a play on the interior it was fending off a run block to get an opening. When he needs to be the aggressor he is too easily shut down in the narrow space. His lack of burst makes it hard to push guys back in run defense and it also hurts his bull rush. There's a limit to the player he can become because of this but he has good potential and won't be completely useless year 1. I see starter (not star) upside. His length and reach will give him something to lean on when all else fails. I see him as a guy who can really come on in year 2. Grade 5.1
     
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  11. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Thanks for the late-inning write-ups Bob!

    I really want to come out of Day 2 with one of the 6 next-level DEs - Jay Ferguson, Zach Allen, Omenihu, Joe Jackson, Collier & Tony Nelson - after the 6 first-level ones have been taken by #32.
    I really hope Bill doesn't wait until 97/101 to make his move in that direction, because not one of the above next-level guys will be available by then.
     
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  12. everlong

    everlong Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Allen is my preference at 56 but it wouldn't surprise me if several of these guys are all there at 64 and the Pats trade down or use 73 on one of them while also filling another need before 97/101.

    One of my best case scenarios is a trade down from 32 to something in the 40-45 range and they pick up one of Lindstrom, McGary and Risner and then use 56, 64, 73 and the additional pick from trading down from 32, somewhere between that range of 56-73 on a combination of, Zach Allen, Khalen Saunders, Andy Isabella and the best of the level 2 TEs left consisting of I. Smith, Sternberger, Knox, K. Smith and Oliver.

    If all the TEs are gone, which I highly doubt, Thompson or Hooker at Safety or one of the long corners Johnson or Williams.

    I'm so torn because I love Fant but to go up and get him you end up with.

    Fant, Allen, Saunders and Isabella (as one example)

    Trade down you end up with Linstrom/McGary/Risner, Allen, Saunders, Isabella plus a TE, Safety or long Corner.

    That one top end game changer or all that beautiful depth. I think I like the trade down more.
     
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  13. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    With all of these options, there's no way that Bill could feck this all up - again - can he?
     
  14. everlong

    everlong Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I definitely don't get a lot of the picks he has made, and some he hasn't made, but it's hard to argue the overall aggregate. I loathe Bill Polian but he had a good quote about how even the best of us (his arrogance was including himself) only hit on 57.5% of the picks. Bill's among the best drafters there is. Go look at the busts of other teams who have a rep of drafting well. They have just as many busts.

    What do the following all have in common? Marvel Smith, Kendrell Bell, Alonzo Jackson, Ricardo Colclough, Bryant McFadden, Limas Sweed, Jason Worilds, Mike Adams and Senquez Golson.

    Steelers second rounders they wish they had back. BTW that's out of 17 picks they've had. None of their hits have had the impact of Gronk, Light, Branch, Vollmer or Chung. They've never gotten a second in trade like they did for JG. And the Pats have solid contributors like Eugene Wilson to offset guys like Randle El who have been partial hits.
     
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  15. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Positional breakdown with final grades (there were a few minor changes but nothing too different. As I've watched more film my thoughts on guys has changed. A few minor point adjustments here and there). I was hoping to get 10 more done but I ran out of time. I'm sure I'll kick myself for a number of these grades later but who doesn't? : ) Officially locked in as my final board.

    QB Grades

    1 Dwayne Haskins - Ohio State . Grade 7.2 The best and safest QB in this draft.
    2 Will Grier – WV. Grade 5.8 An underrated potential steal. I love the upside here.
    3 Drew Lock - Missouri. Grade 5.1
    4 Tyree Jackson - Buffalo. Grade 4.9
    5 Kyler Murray - Oklahoma. Grade 4.5 2nd best QB but I don't see how he stays healthy.
    6 Daniel Jones – Duke. Grade 4.1
    7 Clayton Thorson – Northwestern. Grade 3.5
    8 Ryan Finley – NC State. Grade 3.0

    TE Grades

    1 Kahale Warring – S.D. State. Grade 6.9 I think he'll be great! Wait to grab for value!
    2 T.J. Hockenson – Iowa. Grade 6.7
    3 Jace Sternberger - Texas A&M. Grade 5.9 I believe there's a huge drop off after him.
    4 Noah Fant – Iowa. Grade 5.1 Big upside but BIG question marks.
    5 Dawson Knox – Ole Miss. Grade 5.1
    6 Irv Smith Jr. – Alabama. Grade 5.1
    8 Josh Oliver – S.J. State. Grade 5.1 – I group this player and the 2 above together.
    7 Foster Moreau – LSU. Grade 4.8
    9 Kaden Smith - Stanford. Grade 4.7
    10 Trevon Wesco – West Virginia. Grade 4.5
    11 Drew Sample – Washington. Grade 4.5
    12 Caleb Wilson – UCLA. Grade 4.2

    WR Grades

    1 AJ Brown - Ole Miss. Grade 7.1
    2 Marquise Brown - Oklahoma. Grade 6.8 – The 2 best. Extremely safe with high upside.
    3 Hakeem Butler - Iowa State. Grade 6.3
    4 Andy Isabella – Mass. Grade 6.1 – So so so underrated.
    5 Emanuel Hall – Missouri. Grade 5.8 – Super talented but an injury risk.
    6 D.K. Metcalf – Ole Miss. Grade 5.7 – Talented but bust potential. I think he falls to the 20s.
    7 J.J. Arcega-Whiteside – Stanford. Grade 5.5
    8 K'Neal Harry – AZ State. Grade 5.4
    9 Deebo Samuel – South Carolina. Grade 5.3 – A solid WR but not a star IMO.
    10 Parris Campbell – Ohio State. Grade 5.2 – Super risky weapon. Not a real WR yet.
    11 Miles Boykin – Notre Dame. Grade 5.1 – Boring but solid enough. Same for next 2.
    12 Stanley Morgan Jr. – Nebraska. Grade 5.0
    13 Riley Ridley – Georgia. Grade 4.9
    14 Kelvin Harmon – NC State. Grade 4.2

    OL Grade – N/A, RB Grades N/A – I didn't look at those spots.

    DT Grades

    1 Quinnen Williams - Alabama. Grade 8.4
    2 Ed Oliver – Houston. Grade 8.2
    3 Jeffery Simmons - Miss State. Grade 7.9
    4 Christian Wilkins – Clemson. Grade 6.7
    5 Dre'Mont Jones – – Ohio State. Grade 6.4
    6 Jerry Tillery – Notre Dame. Grade 6.4 - He'd be higher if not for character issues. 4th best.
    7 Dexter Lawrence – Clemson. Grade 6.3
    8 Gerald Willis – Miami. Grade 4.6 – I regret not getting to the final DTs... :( This is such a huge gap!


    DE/Edge Grades

    1 Gary Rashan – Michigan. Grade 8.0
    2 Nick Bosa - Ohio State. Grade 7.7
    3 Josh Allen - Kentucky. Grade 7.4
    4 Clelin Ferrell – Clemson. Grade 6.6
    5 Brian Burns - FSU. Grade 6.4
    6 Montez Sweat – Miss State. Grade 6.1
    7 Zach Allen – Boston College. Grade 5.7
    8 Jaylon Ferguson – Louisiana Tech. Grade 5.6
    9 Anthony Nelson – Iowa. Grade 5.3
    10 Oshane Ximines – Old Dominion. Grade 5.3
    11 Case Winovich – Michigan. Grade 5.2
    12 L.J. Collier – Texas Christian. 5.2
    13 Charles Omenihu – Texas. Grade 5.1
    14 Jalen Jelks – Oregon. Grade 4.7
    15 Ben Banogu – Texas Christian. Grade 4.5

    LB Grades

    1 Devin Bush - Michigan. Grade 6.9
    2 Devin White – LSU. Grade 6.7
    3 Mack Wilson – Alabama. Grade 4.6 – After watching Mack and a little more of the projected top LB prospects I quickly gave up on this class.

    CB Grades

    1 Andraez 'Greedy' Williams - LSU. Grade 7.0
    2 Byron Murphy – Washington. Grade 6.6
    3 DeAndre Baker – Georgia. Grade 6.4
    4 Jamel Dean – Auburn. Grade 5.8
    5 Julian Love – Notre Dame. Grade 5.8
    6 Justin Layne – Michigan St. Grade 5.6
    7 Amani Oruwariye – Penn State. Grade 5.4
    8 Rock Ya-sin – Temple. Grade 5.3 - Being a great zone CB doesn't do it for me. Sorry :(
    9 Trayvon Mullen – Clemson. Grade 4.7
    10 Isaiah Johnson – Houston. Grade 4.4
    11 Lonnie Johnson Jr – Kentucky. Grade 4.3

    Safety Grades

    1 Juan Thornhill – FS Virginia. Grade 6.6
    2 Darnell Savage – FS Maryland. Grade 6.0 - May be the grade I regret most. Could be great.
    3 Taylor Rapp – SS Washington. Grade 5.9
    4 Chauncey Gardner-Johnson – SS Florida. Grade 5.8
    5 Johnathan Abram – FS Miss State. Grade 5.7
    6 Nasir Adderley – FS – Delaware. Grade 5.3 - I doubt anyone else has him this low.
    7 Amani Hooker - SS Iowa. Grade 5.1
    8 Deionte Thompson – FS Alabama. Grade 4.6
    9 Will Harris – FS Boston College. Grade 4.0
     
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    Last edited: Apr 25, 2019
  16. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Great stuff, Bob. I really appreciate how you explained your methodology and process. Right or wrong, you've been consistent and true to your eval. Respect!
     
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  17. SBLIII

    SBLIII In the Starting Line-Up

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    so in other words if we pick JJ Williams at 32 you would hate it? lol
     

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