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Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by BobDigital, Mar 19, 2019.

  1. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Slightly less-than-ideal arm length, plus unknown 10/20/40 speed (didn't run the 40 at either the combine or pro day) make him a late Day 2 (97/101) candidate for me, maybe #73 if our needs at WR, TE & DE have already been filled and a couple of other OLmen I'll be watching have already been taken.
     
  2. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Emanuel Hall – WR Missouri

    6'2 201 lbs. Hall had an excellent combine. A 4.39 40, tied for best VJ and best BJ. His bench was middle of the pack but who cares. Apparently he didn't do any agility drills at his combine or pro day. His stats in college were good on a per game basis putting up back to back 800 yard seasons. He did have a very competent QB in Drew Lock and so maybe could have had more. He was shut out in a fair amount of games. His YPC is something like 23.5 yards over the past 2 years but he only caught 33 and 37 passes the last 2 seasons. He missed 2 of his best opponents this year in Alabama and Kentucky. He was shut out vs Georgia and Baker. Let's get to the tape.

    The first thing I wanted to confirm on tape was if he has quickness. He does. A very strong and fast first step out of his break. I would be curious to know what his 3CT would have been. He also is incredibly shifty. His run blocking is pretty bad. Not the worst I've ever seen, he just has no interest in it and takes bad angles at times. For a guy who drops a lot of balls he is a pretty consistent hand catcher. More than drops I noticed the weak hands. It doesn't take much to knock a potentially completed pass out of them.

    I read he was raw I was surprised to see him use a few well timed push offs. As for Baker shutting him down, I found that to be overrated. I had to watch the Drew Lock highlight tape to see that game actually, and frankly Hall was wide open several times and beat Baker 1 v 1 deep. In the 2nd half he was fairly limpy. I expected to come away from this tape not wanting to like him but it turned out the other way. I really like the things he can do. Particular how he can turn short catches into first downs. Health may be an issue for him but frankly he came off to me as a very solid player with few issues in his game. He could use some more polish with little tricks but he can win with his natural tools and isn't just a home run hitter. I don't think his hands are that big of an issue. At least not in the tape I saw. Could improve his catching and tracking but I don't see them as the red flags other people do. Grade 5.8
     
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  3. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Amani Hooker - SS Iowa

    5'11 210 lbs. Hooker had a good combine. He excelled at the 20YS, 3CT and VJ. His BJ and 40 were on the higher end and his bench was below average. He looks to have top end quickness, good explosion and long speed. He is also one of the youngest players in this draft which potentially makes his upside higher. Last year was the first time he really became an every game player, he did have a decent sophomore year though. He played FS, SS but mostly a hybrid star role.

    The good. Gets off WR blocks well. Looks like he actually enjoys run defense. Has an attacking mentality. Plays with good anticipation and usually takes care of his responsibility. Takes smart cut off angles when forced to play defensively. Good in zone coverage and has ball hawk ability. Good man skills when in proper match ups. Plays with strength and won't let a WR win the position easily in a jump ball situation. Good tackling technique most of the time.

    The bad. Sometimes attacks too much and gets pulled away from his responsibility. The athlete he tested as doesn't quite show up on film. Can't stick with the better WRs in man. You want to keep him out of 1 on 1 open space situations. When going down hill from a high above position he may take too sharp of an angle and lose the edge.

    Overall. You take the good with the bad. Hooker needs to be put in the right situation to succeed. You don't want him playing far back. Certainly not single high. He'll do well as an in the box SS. He likes to attack but sometimes he's over aggressive. Coaching can fix most of his mistakes. His biggest issue is fixing his over aggression and angles. The higher up he is the worse his angles get. He wants to aim directly for where the ball is, not where it will be. Even if this is mostly fixed he'll still be limited in some ways, but no more than most other SS. I don't know if he has what it takes to ever truly become an every down player, but I could see him being a starter who plays the majority of the snaps. Consistency is the key for him and that should improve. The key to me is he showed good coverage in the match ups he was asked to play. As long as he's asked to play similar match ups he should do well. Grade 5.1
     
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  4. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Also I was going to do Jachai Polite but the more I read the less I cared to. He just seems like a total bust. Going by his very real character concerns.
     
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  5. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    One of the worst pre-draft-process performers on and off the field. You almost have to try to be at bad. But his tape is remarkably good, at least when rushing the passer. He legitimately looks like a first round EDGE.
     
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  6. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Clayton Thorson – QB Northwestern

    6'4 222 lbs. I've seen him getting into the top 3 rounds in a lot of mocks so I thought he'd be worth a look. He clearly has the size you want. His stats have always been subpar besides maybe 1 year. Not that he has ever had a great cast to play with, but still not what you want to see. Let's get to the tape.

    The good. The arm is NFL caliber and the accuracy is usually there. Pocket movement is decent for a college QB and was often let down by his cast. Can throw a touch pass just as well as lazering it it. Good when on the run as long as he isn't going backwards. Stats suffered due to offensive style of play.

    The bad. The first thing that jumped out to be was the number of one read passes. Perhaps it was by design, but I still hate to see it. I want my QB to read a D. Maybe he can, but he certainly didn't prove it. Another thing I noticed is his gunslinger mentality. He never seems to want to take the sure short pass unless that is the called played. A number of times I saw him force it down field when his underneath option was more open or wide open. You would think this would be the easiest thing in the world to fix, but usually not for some strange reason. Like many QBs in college he seems over coach and looks fairly robotic in his actions. The ability to improvise wasn't showing through in the tape. He looks quick to run when things don't get open immediately.

    I wish the good and bad could be more balance here but I just didn't see much that particularly stood out. He's a decent enough QB but from my view point no different than a large number of QBs that come out every year looking to get drafted. I don't see why certain people have him ranked in the top 100 over other options. To me he is clearly a long shot project that you're hoping figures it out in the NFL. Personally I see that as unlikely. When you start as many games in college as he did, if it was going to happen you would have seen more evidence for it. Grade 3.5
     
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  7. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    If you can pick him up in the 3rd or 4th round, I start to see not much downside. From all accounts his effort on the field is very good and that may be enough for BB. Sure, he may flame out but I think he could equally be a bargain at that price.
     
  8. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I honestly think Bill's head would explode watching him try to take on a down block, hold his ground or the position he puts himself. Not sure if it's effort but his run defense is gods awful. Not even that he's bad all the time but his mistakes are so egregious its not funny.
    Just not a PTP imo.
     
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  9. BelichicksHoodie

    BelichicksHoodie On the Game Day Roster

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    Incredible write up as always Bob. I've been enamored with Dexter since his freshman year and have always envisioned him in a Patriots uniform whenever he decided to come out and this is the year where I hope my dream becomes a reality. In January cold weather football, I've always coveted guys who can dominate the trenches and push the other line around and Lawrence is the guy to do that. More often than not he will be the bully, not the bullied.

    If he stops the run and eats blockers for breakfast than I'm willing to put up with the lack of pass-rush abilities other than collapsing the pocket. Then again, I've always been a fan of pushing the centre into the QBs face.
     
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  10. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Gerald Willis – DT Miami

    6'2 302 lbs. Sadly I don't have any testing numbers as he didn't test at the combine or pro day due to injuries. The only thing I have is an unofficial 40 time of about 5.1. Whenever a player doesn't test due to injuries I hate it. Part of me is always wondering in the back of my mind is it really due to injury or did they use it as an excuse to avoid bad scores?

    His back story is important. He was dismissed from his first team after an altercation with a teammate. He had to sit out the next year per NCAA transfer rules. He played a little in 2016 but was suspended, He took a leave of absence in 2017. All we really have is the 2018 tape. His coach in 2018 did say he was proud of Willis and seems to believe he turned his life around. Clearly he has or had off the field issues and those need to be taken into account. Hopefully he's gotten his head on straight and doesn't ruin this opportunity for himself. It's worth noting he played closer to 285 lbs in his final year than the 302 lbs he weighed in at. Good stats with 18 TFL and 4 sacks in his final season and the splash plays were fairly well spread out.

    The good: Very active with his hands and usually wins that battle. A good (not great) burst to get into the backfield. Holds up well vs the run usually considering his size. Shows good pursuit even when the play is away from his position. Didn't have a ton of help on the DL and was often double teamed. Not overly aggressive and quickly gets off his pass rush if he smells something fishy.

    The Bad. In congested situations his skill set tends to fail. Too often his back ends up facing the play. Sideline to sideline speed isn't special. If he doesn't win an instant advantage it's hard for him to get off his block. Below average bull rush. His tape vs BC makes one concerned about his ability to handle powerful and talented OL.

    Overall. I see Willis as a match up oriented player. There are certain lines and styles he will do well against and certain lines and styles that will exploit his weaknesses. He'll be good enough to be a rotational guy, but his inability to deal with certain match ups means he can't be a full time starter. If a team drafts him with that in mind he'll probably have a decent career. If a team expects more than that from him they will likely feel let down. That and his red flags knock him down my board. Grade 4.6
     
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  11. reamer

    reamer Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Height: 6016
    Weight: 302
    Hand: 08 1/2
    Arm: 33
    Wingspan: 76 1/2

    Height: 6016
    Weight: 302
    40 Yrd Dash: 5.17
    20 Yrd Dash: 3.05
    10 Yrd Dash: 1.80
    225 Lb. Bench Reps: 22
    Vertical Jump: 27
    Broad Jump: 08'07"
    20 Yrd Shuttle:
    3-Cone Drill:
     
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  12. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Deebo Samuel – WR South Carolina

    5'11 214 lbs. Samuel had a good combine. A good 40 time, BJ, 3CT and bench. A very good VJ and 20YS. He didn't have a single bad or average event. Overall he was at least above average in everything. While not as big as some would like he's thick and strong for his size. Better to be 5'11 and 214 lbs than 6'6 and 214 lbs IMO. Samuel had good stats and was the top weapon on his offense. He didn't have many bad games and had his best games against some of the best Ds. He was also a fairly dangerous kick returner.

    The Good. Always looking to fight for that extra yard. Has a pretty lethal stutter step. Able to win with both quickness and speed. Good awareness of where he is on the field and where the first down marker is. Needs to be dragged down with solid tackling. Does a good job setting defenders up

    The Bad. Doesn't run block with attitude. Doesn't help out his QB enough when the play breaks down. Can't dominate with either quickness or speed. Doesn't get much YAC. Doesn't hang on well through contact. Hands are not as solid as advertised. Some health concerns. Probably maxed out athletically.

    People will point to his 200 yard Clemson game as justification for him being a top pick. My thought is even a great D can have a bad night. That's what I think happened. As for Deebo himself, I like the player; but I don't love him. I see him a lot like I see Riley Ridley. A good guy to have in your core, but not a play maker. Has very little room to grow. At the next level it will be harder for him to set up more savvy players like he's been doing. That being the case he's one of the safer WRs options. Low ceiling high floor. A guy ready to come in and help but not change your future. Grade 5.1
     
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    Last edited: Apr 20, 2019
  13. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Aren’t the Patriots the ultimate low ceiling, high floor team when it comes to Patriot WRs? Edelman, Amendola, Walker, Hogan, Malcolm Mitchell etc etc. Moss and Gordon are the only exceptions I can think of.
     
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  14. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Boyce, Jackson come to mind? I know we liked Boyce & what he brought but man he couldn't find a way to utilize his speed while running routes.
     
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  15. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I think those names support my theory that high floors are the best way to find success on the Pats.
     
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  16. BaconGrundleCandy

    BaconGrundleCandy Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Could be. I think succeeding as a WR has a lot more to do w IQ, chemistry & Tom's trust in you. We definitely don't shy away from high ceilings though, at any position.
     
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  17. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Isaiah Johnson – CB Houston

    6'2 208 lbs. Johnson is a long lanky CB and former WR. He had a very good combine. Running a 4.40 and doing well in the VJ. BJ, 3CT and 20YS. The VJ is the only event he tried that he didn't finish in the top 5 in. He skipped the bench but I don't really care. On paper going by the test he checks all the boxes. Length, quickness, speed, explosion. He's still learning the CB position but in his 2 years since converting he has pretty much become a full time starter and has put up good numbers. More PDs would be nice though. On to the tape.

    He didn't play the best competition last year. Very few top teams or top talents. He didn't really go against any of the top picks from this year which makes it hard to compare him. This is clearly a guy you draft with the future in mind. His tackling needs work. Has trouble getting off blocks. Doesn't seem to know how to deal with come back routes. Very raw and it shows still. Lacks tested acceleration out of his breaks and doesn't know how to use his hands to slow down a route before it really starts. There is just a lot more bad than good here. The upside though is tempting.

    A rare athlete for his size there are a number of things he's already learned to do okay and considering he started at ground zero two years ago he's made very good progress. He has shown able to make good use of top speed and his length. His quickness while not as good as his tested time is better than you'd see him most CBs his size. There's clearly something to work with. That being said, there are so many issues with his game and the return is anyone's guess. He worth taking a shot on, and seems like a better bet than most players who are projects. Grade 4.4
     
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  18. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Trevon Wesco – TE West Virginia

    6'3 267 lbs. He has good size for the position. His combine was not the best. He had the best bench, but that's the thing I care the least about. His BJ and 3CT time were slightly above average. In everything else he was below average. Overall a subpar combine. But good players have had bad combines in the past. Last year was his first time seeing a lot of snaps and he did okay with 366 yards. WV had a fairly prolific offense which worries me. He pretty much tied for the 4th best option on his team. You would like to see more production in an environment where he had a chance to get it.

    The good. Has good balance. Plays up to his weight with and without the ball in his hands. Hard to take down. Good hands. Plays with swag and attitude. Is surprisingly slippery for a man his size. Is very strong and plays like he knows it. Has a very good one cut and get up field ability. Able to catch well through contact. Seems to have great body control. Is a good blocker when going north.

    The bad. Doesn't have top speed or quickness to break big plays. Was able to get a lot of his yards cause he wasn't tightly covered. Cross pattern looks incredibly slow. Lack of sustained quickness hurts his ability to block around the edge or trying to do stunts.

    Overall. Blocking is how he'll see the field most of the time. When I see him block I think more of a FB than a TE. I mean that both as a bad and good thing. He seems very capable of pushing the man in front of him backwards. As far as around the edge I wouldn't trust him to do it without a 2 on 1 block. That's a problem. It limits his ability to be out there and I don't think it's fixable. As a pass catcher I like what he can do. He isn't a play maker but a sure handed target who can power through or stutter step and burst forward for a first down. I don't think he'll get much better, but he's probably good enough to be a guy you bring in for certain situations. I don't see an every down or starting role in his future, but he has a good mentality. Add that in with his ability to move the chains and he's a solid #2 TE. Grade 4.5
     
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  19. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Jamel Dean – CB Auburn

    6'1 206lbs. A well built tall CB. Going by his combine Dean is one of the more exciting players in this draft. He put up the athletic numbers with some play to back it up. He had the best 40 time of any CB along with a very good Bench, VJ, BJ and 3CT. He was near or in the top 5 in pretty much everything except the 20YS where he was merely average. Going by his size and test he projects better as an outside than inside CB, but doesn't lack quickness. Has 2 years of starter experience.

    This is a player of ups and downs. One of the worst blocking and least physical CBs I've ever seen. How bad is it? He let a freaking Texas A&M QB push him back on an end around. And no, he wasn't a big QB. That should be humiliating, yet it seemed to be par for the course. He didn't seem the least bit interested in getting involved. He does know this is football right? It's odd cause he looks big and imposing in person but you don't see him play like it often. He did on occasion play up to his size and power, but it was to rare. He needs to improve here.

    A far as his coverage, pretty damn good. He defends well all over the field. He is tight on both deep routes and routes that get horizontal. The only time I saw him really get beat over the top was a picture perfect 40 yard pass down field against Alabama, and he was only beat by a step. Not bad at all. He plays up to his test marks on the field for the most part but seems more like a 4.4 player than 4.3 player. He can deliver hits well to a WR trying to catch the ball but I need to see him willing to hit more often.

    As far as his pass defense it's honestly hard to find much to criticize. The only thing I noticed as a negative is he rarely takes the ball away His open field tackling could use some work too. When it comes to man coverage from the tape that I saw he looks as good as anyone in this draft more or less. He could do better consistently pressing as sometimes he gives his WRs too easy a release. But that's a fixable issue. The athletic ability shows up and certain key techniques look solid. Grade 5.8
     
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  20. BobDigital

    BobDigital Pro Bowl Player

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    Oshane Ximines – Edge/DE Old Dominion.

    6'3 253 lbs. Oshane had an underwhelming combine. He had a bad 20YS. A below average VJ, BJ, 40 and 3CT; and a good bench (in the context of his weight). Overall pretty poor results compared to what you'd hope for. But nothing that disqualifies his ability to be a good player or severely limits his upside. As for his production in college, he had a lot with multiple years of tape to look it. This makes him one of the safer options as we know it wasn't a flash in the pan season. Not to mention he showed improvement each year. While I couldn't find out his age it is fair to assume as a 5th year player he's older than most other prospects which may limit his upside. While he had good stats he rarely played elite competition.

    Here are a few things I love to see edge players do. Defend passes and force fumbles. Oshane does these both a decent amount. He seems like a solid run defender which is surprising considering his weight. I wonder if that will change when he enters the NFL and faces bigger and more athletic guys. While he seems like a good pass rusher, nothing really sticks out. His bend is okay, his burst is okay, his bull rush is okay, his hand fighting is better than okay. That's probably the best part of his game. How well he uses his hands to win the position. He is able to set his guy up to win both outside and inside and has the ability to do both provided he wins the hand fight contest.

    He's sometimes in too big of a rush to get up field and takes himself out of the play. While I worry about his size potentially making it hard for him to be an every down player he certainly has starter potential. There isn't likely to be a situation you need to take him off the field for unless he needs a break and that is something I find very valuable. While he isn't 270 that doesn't mean he can be an every down DE. A lot of DEs are able to take on a very load at that weight. The I'm confident that his pass rush will translate okay, but the run D will be questionable. He rarely has every had to face anything that close to an NFL quality OT. That makes me hesitate. Grade 5.3
     
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    Last edited: Apr 22, 2019

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