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Bills FA CB Stephon Gilmore signs 5-year deal w/New England

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So we get Cooks for what we initially wanted to give up. I'll take it!

from what i remember, it was our 1st for Cooks and one of their picks (maybe 3rd?)
 
This feels like BB woke up this morning saying "Butler is pissing me off, f*** it" and called up Gilmore. "How much you want? $15m a year? How bout $13m a year if I guarantee you $40m? K done deal. F*** it."

That's how you go from no interest to a done deal by 10 AM.
 
Malcolm Butler Team probably to greedy, BB screw them nicely.

It's the agent's first big time player. He needs to get Butler the big money so he can attract big time clients. I don't blame them one bit.
 
Gilmore had a down year in 2016 where Bouye exploded. NFL constantly overreacts on one year wonder, and this could be the case again. I like the Gilmore deal, at 13M/Year

A "down year" where he was still a top-10 CB on a bad defense.
 
What is Gilmore guaranteed?
 
...last year at this time the Patriots had closed on Ramon Humber.
Bit of a different approach this year.
 
Because Butler, as an RFA, is worth a 1st round pick.. Then you add the #32 pick. You get two 1st rounders.. It's not that hard to understand.. Maybe it is since it requires having the basic concept of Algebra.. BTW, Most everyone on this board understands that Butler is worth more than Brandon Cooks.. Significantly more.. So the idea that the Pats are giving up more to get Cooks is stupid.

Having Cooks isn't worth hurting Mitchell's development. Who cares what "you see Mitchell as". That doesn't mean a damn thing. The Patriots receivers are required to be able to play all 3. This is well known. Mitchell lined up outside and in the slot at different times last year.

Of course you don't see how it cuts into Mitchell's snaps. Because you don't get the idea that the Pats aren't going to take Edelman off the field in favor of Cooks.. So they would have to take Mitchell.

What I really "fail to see" is how merely exploring possible scenarios that haven't happened yet (and may never) is enough to make someone angry enough to call the effort "stupid."

Yeah, I'm aware that, with the 1st-round FA tender on Butler, the Pats COULD end up "trading" him for a first round pick, IF another team makes Butler a contract offer that the Pats refuse to match. That's a POTENTIAL 1st round pick at this point, but what are the odds, realistically?

According to Miguel, there are maybe three out of 32 teams (10%) that have the cap space + the draft ammo + the need for an elite corner who MIGHT realistically consider making such an offer. He assumes that teams a pick above a certain level (#20, I think) would think it too much to give up in the context of their other needs. Miguel seems to suggest that the likeliest possibility might be the Titans, since they have two first rounders and would be able to fork over their #18 pick. Then, the Titans would need to make an offer that would exceed Butler's perceived value to the Pats. And we don't really know what that is in terms of $$ - The same as Gilmore's deal? More? Less?

I'm not saying that this CAN'T happen, just that it seems fairly unlikely to me. But nothing is certain either way.

However, you appear to be treating it as a certainty and then equating moving 10 spots down in the draft to "losing" a 1st-round pick outright. Which then equals "the Pats are giving up two 1st-rounders to get Cooks."

Now, I can still recite the quadratic equation on demand, but the math you appear to be using here is way beyond any "algebra" I've ever known. And it doesn't appear to account for the factor that a player's value to the Pats has always been pretty fluid, depending on the situation.

Anyway, you take your result from that math and add it to your opinion that Butler is objectively and unequivocally of SIGNIFICANTLY more value to the Pats than Cooks (for this season and next) to conclude that the Pats ARE (in the proposed scenario) giving up this HUGE amount to get a relatively worthless Cooks.

And that my "idea" (simply exploring a "what if" scenario) is "stupid".

So, I'm also well aware that pretty much every game-day-active Pats receiver (not limited to WRs) who is eligible in a formation has lined up at X, Y and Z (and even in the backfield) at one point or another during a given season. This includes even Develin. And, yeah, knowing all the routes from every spot is required of all Pats receivers. All of that has been obvious to me for years. However, Pats WRs also generally have more or less "primary roles" in which they'll line up in one or two spots more often than another.

Reiss, in past years has occasionally done a breakout of snaps per spot for WRs over the entire season (there may be other sources, too). I don't have any 2016 data in front of me, but I still think it's a good bet that Mitchell lined up a bit more often at X or Z in 2016 than at Y, excluding trips sets. And, yeah, I do think that, IF Cooks comes to the Pats via this "imagined" trade, I think that there may well be a roughly equal possibility for Edelman to lose snaps to Cooks as anyone else.

Regardless, it seems to me that Cooks' presence on the roster = hurting Mitchell's development is merely another assumption. An equally valid assumption would be that, working alongside Cooks could AID Mitchell's development.

But, what do I know? I'm not nearly as certain about any of this as you seems to be.
 
 
But less APY.

I'd rather pay 500K more in AAV than $12M more in guarantees. If the CB is good, you're not going to be sweating the pay either way, but if he busts out then that extra $12M will hurt.

That said, I'd rather bet on Gilmore than Bouye, so I'm fine with how that's gone. I'd rather bet on Butler than either of them, but IBBIT..
 
So what's the consensus? Like, Love or Hate? Forget the money aspect and just getting the player alone, how do you feel.

If we let Butler go and got Cooks in return how would that then make you feel?
 
What I really "fail to see" is how merely exploring possible scenarios that haven't happened yet (and may never) is enough to make someone angry enough to call the effort "stupid."

Yeah, I'm aware that, with the 1st-round FA tender on Butler, the Pats COULD end up "trading" him for a first round pick, IF another team makes Butler a contract offer that the Pats refuse to match. That's a POTENTIAL 1st round pick at this point, but what are the odds, realistically?

According to Miguel, there are maybe three out of 32 teams (10%) that have the cap space + the draft ammo + the need for an elite corner who MIGHT realistically consider making such an offer. He assumes that teams a pick above a certain level (#20, I think) would think it too much to give up in the context of their other needs. Miguel seems to suggest that the likeliest possibility might be the Titans, since they have two first rounders and would be able to fork over their #18 pick. Then, the Titans would need to make an offer that would exceed Butler's perceived value to the Pats. And we don't really know what that is in terms of $$ - The same as Gilmore's deal? More? Less?

I'm not saying that this CAN'T happen, just that it seems fairly unlikely to me. But nothing is certain either way.

However, you appear to be treating it as a certainty and then equating moving 10 spots down in the draft to "losing" a 1st-round pick outright. Which then equals "the Pats are giving up two 1st-rounders to get Cooks."

Now, I can still recite the quadratic equation on demand, but the math you appear to be using here is way beyond any "algebra" I've ever known. And it doesn't appear to account for the factor that a player's value to the Pats has always been pretty fluid, depending on the situation.

Anyway, you take your result from that math and add it to your opinion that Butler is objectively and unequivocally of SIGNIFICANTLY more value to the Pats than Cooks (for this season and next) to conclude that the Pats ARE (in the proposed scenario) giving up this HUGE amount to get a relatively worthless Cooks.

And that my "idea" (simply exploring a "what if" scenario) is "stupid".

So, I'm also well aware that pretty much every game-day-active Pats receiver (not limited to WRs) who is eligible in a formation has lined up at X, Y and Z (and even in the backfield) at one point or another during a given season. This includes even Develin. And, yeah, knowing all the routes from every spot is required of all Pats receivers. All of that has been obvious to me for years. However, Pats WRs also generally have more or less "primary roles" in which they'll line up in one or two spots more often than another.

Reiss, in past years has occasionally done a breakout of snaps per spot for WRs over the entire season (there may be other sources, too). I don't have any 2016 data in front of me, but I still think it's a good bet that Mitchell lined up a bit more often at X or Z in 2016 than at Y, excluding trips sets. And, yeah, I do think that, IF Cooks comes to the Pats via this "imagined" trade, I think that there may well be a roughly equal possibility for Edelman to lose snaps to Cooks as anyone else.

Regardless, it seems to me that Cooks' presence on the roster = hurting Mitchell's development is merely another assumption. An equally valid assumption would be that, working alongside Cooks could AID Mitchell's development.

But, what do I know? I'm not nearly as certain about any of this as you seems to be.

A whole bunch of spin that says nothing.. All you're trying to do is justify yourself when you were caught throwing crap at the wall to see what would stick and hope no one would call you out on your flawed thinking..
 
So what's the consensus? Like, Love or Hate? Forget the money aspect and just getting the player alone, how do you feel.

If we let Butler go and got Cooks in return how would that then make you feel?
Not a fan, personally. 40m dollars in guaranteed money could have gone to better use. That's more than 25% more than the Pats have ever guaranteed for a defensive player.

My initial reaction is that I'm surprised and slightly annoyed. You know, the typical day one of FA feeling.
 
Not a fan, personally. 40m dollars in guaranteed money could have gone to better use. That's more than 25% more than the Pats have ever guaranteed for a defensive player.

My initial reaction is that I'm surprised and slightly annoyed. You know, the typical day one of FA feeling.
Yeah hopefully his 'slump' was just being in Buffalo and the stench of Rex rather than a drop in performance for him. Could be a stud with McCourty back there too. Would feel more comfortable with Butler there also
 
So what's the consensus? Like, Love or Hate? Forget the money aspect and just getting the player alone, how do you feel.

If we let Butler go and got Cooks in return how would that then make you feel?

I am kind of shocked, I saw Gilmore get burned by the Patriots.. But I have no idea how good Gilmore is. I honestly didn't think he was that good but I have a very small sample size.
 
I am kind of shocked, I saw Gilmore get burned by the Patriots.. But I have no idea how good Gilmore is. I honestly didn't think he was that good but I have a very small sample size.
Bill Belichick is going to be coaching Gilmore. If he's paid him 14 million per, I look forward to seeing what he can coax out of him.

Few would have thought Hogan or Welker would show what they did, but BB knew.
 
I am kind of shocked, I saw Gilmore get burned by the Patriots.. But I have no idea how good Gilmore is. I honestly didn't think he was that good but I have a very small sample size.
Yeah i think that's about right in context, have to remember that everyone gets torched by Brady though
 
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