Belichick ("not a tremendous downside"), Ebner on failed onsides kick

[QuantumMechanic]

When asked about the decision to use Ebner's rugby skills on the second-quarter kickoff, Patriots coach Bill Belichick hinted that the purpose of the play was to drop a kick into hole on the Eagles return unit while catching them off-guard.

Teams often elect to kick high and short to open areas on the field in order to get an odd bounce or to put the football in the hands of a player who isn't used to handling it. The Eagles actually tried a short at the end of the second quarter when they lofted one to Patriots blocking tight end Michael Williams, who fell on the ball and smothered it securely at the New England 25-yard line.

"There wasn't a tremendous downside to the play," said Patriots coach Bill Belichick. "It was like when they mortared their one over there and [Williams recovered it]. It was different, but it was kind of the same thing -- kicking it to dead space."

Ebner said the team practiced the play often enough that they had confidence in it going into Sunday. The execution of the play just wasn't where they wanted it.

"I can hit it better than that," he said. "It wasn't good enough."

Had Ebner kicked it out of the reach of Ajirotutu, it may have bounced and given running back Brandon Bolden -- who was the first to Ajirotutu after the ball was recovered -- a chance to make a play.

Belichick on Ebner's drop kick: No 'tremendous downside'

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Well, he has a point. First, it's risk:reward. It's more likely than not we will not recover the ball, but the odds are worth trying it if it's executed right and we get some luck. If we get it, he's a genius.

Of course everyone is second guessing since we lost the game AND we had the audacity to try something out of the box AND lost a grand total of 20 yards of field position. 20 yards!!! Darn that Belichick, throwing the game away with his insane gambles. If only the Eagles started that drive on their own 20 instead of their own 40, we would have won this game by eleven touchdowns.

 

[Fencer]

Edit: Typos in the below fixed.

What was it -- the PHI 41 and hence 21 yards of field position? No biggie.

I've been thinking and posting as if it were the NE 41, which would have been a very different matter indeed.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

Belichick on Ebner's drop kick: No 'tremendous downside'

Of course he said it he made that bone head call.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

What was it -- the NE 41 and hence 21 yards of field position? No biggie.

I've been thinking and posting as if it were the PHI 41, which would have been a very different matter indeed.

You have the yardage different right but have the placement backwards. PHI got it at the PHI 41 (as opposed to the likely PHI 20 if NE had kicked it normally). So 21yd difference.

 

[supafly]

Of course he said it he made that bone head call.

That call was absolutely terrible, and I don't care what anyone says.

We're up 14-0, with all of the momentum, and PHI hasn't done a damn thing to that point. Instead of kicking it deep like usual, you screw around with a low percentage odds (about 10-12%) play and give them good field position and a much higher chance to score. It's just stupid, and Belichick knows that, even if he didn't admit it. It's hard to imagine him making that same decision again under the same circumstances.

 

[DaBronxPats14]

QM one thing we could agree on is there were quite a few plays in this game that did us in.

 

[kudzif]

Well, he has a point. First, it's risk:reward. It's more likely than not we will not recover the ball, but the odds are worth trying it if it's executed right and we get some luck. If we get it, he's a genius.

Of course everyone is second guessing since we lost the game AND we had the audacity to try something out of the box AND lost a grand total of 20 yards of field position. 20 yards!!! Darn that Belichick, throwing the game away with his insane gambles. If only the Eagles started that drive on their own 20 instead of their own 40, we would have won this game by eleven touchdowns.

It is a low probability play, unless you are winning big or at the end of the game and need to tie there is a major downside and you saw it in this game.If there was not a lot of downside to the play patriots would do it every week.
Odds of conceding points go up considerably when a team starts from the 40 vs 20 and for Bill and you to claim otherwise is a joke.

 

[supafly]

You have the yardage different right but have the placement backwards. PHI got it at the PHI 41 (as opposed to the likely PHI 20 if NE had kicked it normally). So 21yd difference.

I mean, I guess it's not as bad as I originally thought, but it was a pointless, low percentage play that enabled them to have good field position in a game that we were taking control of. The coach is the smartest NFL coach I've ever seen, but I don't agree with that one.

 

[memento]

I'm glad you got an answer to your question about the play in the other thread, QM. It was indeed a botched play.

And while it didn't hand them the score, that 20yds is likely two sets of downs and two chances to force a turnover or 3 and out. Those 20yds are pretty important.

And getting even more subjective about the momentum swing in the audacity to run the trick play up by 14 is a real argument.

 

[RayClay]

Just what I said. the reason it was especially worth risking 20 yards was we were a beat up team playing rusty receivers or role players out of position. Get that third TD and we can play conservative and force them to air it out instead of running.

Fantastic if it works, still worth the slight risk. since when is going 60 yards down the field a gimme? Why couldn't they have gone 80 yards?

Remember, we got a shtty bye week, then lots of injuries,

 

[Fencer]

You have the yardage different right but have the placement backwards. PHI got it at the PHI 41 (as opposed to the likely PHI 20 if NE had kicked it normally). So 21yd difference.

Brain cramp while I was trying to explain my brain cramp.

 

[raduray]

You're the heavy favorite. The defending Champion. You're sitting on a 14-0 lead. Why the Fugg do you need a trick play? All they needed to do was continue to play superior straight up football. With all due respect (and there's a lot of it), I totally disagree with BB on that call. The resulting meltdown was worthy of the Cleveland Browns. Hope they got it out of their system.

 

[Biffins]

I didn't see anyone whining when we tried and successfully recovered an onside kick up 7-0 in the Redskins game. Where was all the indignation then? Hypocrites.

BB saw something that made the attempt worthwhile. Clearly we recovered an attempt later as well. I don't think this is why we lost. We lost because of the blocked punt for TD and the pick 6 which should have given us atleast 3 pts but cost us 7. Those 2 things combined is a 17 pt swing.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

How about

 

[Deus Irae]

Under all the circumstances, it was a stupid call and it gave a dead team momentum. BB should have known better. However, in terms of game play, It had less to do with the team losing than did the OL's terrible play and the WRs dropping balls and blowing routes. For that matter, again in terms of game play, it had less to do with the team losing than did the team's run defense.

 

[captain stone]

That call was absolutely terrible, and I don't care what anyone says.

We're up 14-0, with all of the momentum, and PHI hasn't done a damn thing to that point. Instead of kicking it deep like usual, you screw around with a low percentage odds (about 10-12%) play and give them good field position and a much higher chance to score. It's just stupid, and Belichick knows that, even if he didn't admit it. It's hard to imagine him making that same decision again under the same circumstances.

Completely, 100% agree. It was a typically arrogant call, and you let Nate FECKIN Ebner try it?
Then Nate FECKIN Ebner tries - and fails miserably again - an onsides kick when all you needed
to do was play straight ball and hold Philly to a 3 & out? Absolutely disgraceful.

If Joey Judge had a shred of dignity, he would resign immediately, and Nate Feckin Ebner - who
also fecked-up on defense, too - would be released, along with another 2012 draft feck-up, Tavon
Feckin Wilson.

 

[Sciz]

That call was absolutely terrible, and I don't care what anyone says.

We're up 14-0, with all of the momentum, and PHI hasn't done a damn thing to that point. Instead of kicking it deep like usual, you screw around with a low percentage odds (about 10-12%) play and give them good field position and a much higher chance to score. It's just stupid, and Belichick knows that, even if he didn't admit it. It's hard to imagine him making that same decision again under the same circumstances.

We need somebody to do that math. All other things equal, how often do you need the extra possession to offset the 20 yards of it fails? Of course, not all things were equal because the Pats were the heavy favorite and any added variability like that hurts the favorite. I know 10% is the often-cited success rate, but I was under the impression that it was higher for surprise ones, and I don't know how close the surprise success rate is to the rate necessary for a beneficial average outcome.

Edit: A great article on this exact idea says 9% success in regular onside kicks but 60% on surprise ones from 2001 to 2010, compared to the necessary 37.5% to break even on expected points. Obviously, that changes a bit given that they assume starting field position at the 23.5 on a regular kick and 50 yard line upon failure (actually the 41 here, I believe).

 

[Sciz]

Completely, 100% agree. It was a typically arrogant call, and you let Nate FECKIN Ebner try it?
Then Nate FECKIN Ebner tries - and fails miserably again - an onsides kick when all you needed
to do was play straight ball and hold Philly to a 3 & out? Absolutely disgraceful.

If Joey Judge had a shred of dignity, he would resign immediately, and Nate Feckin Ebner - who
also fecked-up on defense, too - would be released, along with another 2012 draft feck-up, Tavon
Feckin Wilson.

You see, this is one reason I love that the Patriots' leadership is so clear. If it's related to football, then Belichick is in charge. I think it's absolutely idiotic to be calling for jobs here, considering that Belichick clearly knew that there were plays where Ebner would be kicking the ball and obviously didn't veto the idea.

 

[supafly]

We need somebody to do that math. All other things equal, how often do you need the extra possession to offset the 20 yards of it fails? Of course, not all things were equal because the Pats were the heavy favorite and any added variability like that hurts the favorite. I know 10% is the often-cited success rate, but I was under the impression that it was higher for surprise ones, and I don't know how close the surprise success rate is to the rate necessary for a beneficial average outcome.

Agreed, and when someone reminded us what the difference in yardage was, the playcall didn't seem to be quite as dramatic as I remember it. That said, I believe there are certain things that you don't mess with, and momentum is one of them.

Not meaning to pile on top of the commentator's cheesy comments about "getting mo back," but I do believe that the play was more important than just 20 lost yards. It seemed to piss the Eagles and their coaches off, and I believe that it was perceived that we were starting to try and rub it in. As we often see in football, that switch in momentum gave them new life, and they promptly took advantage of it.

Analytics aside, it's my opinion that an old school coach like Belichick knows better than to try and get cute in that kind of situation, but I rarely question the coach.