An EXCELLENT link for those who try to use the Pats play in a weak AFCE

[Bobsyouruncle]

If the Patriots played in the same division as the Steelers then the Steelers would have zero division wins in 20 years and probably would have changed their coach and QB a half dozen times.

 

[BTTA]

I don't know where you get the time, interest, and energy for this, but color me impressed. And thanks.

I did an analysis a couple years ago analyzing each division's record outside the division if you removed the best record from within that division (i.e. to make sure the Pats' success doesn't "cloud" the AFCE numbers)

Between 2002-2017 (2017 is when I did the analysis), the best divisions (without the top team) winning percentages were as follows:

AFCE: 0.528 (New England excluded)
NFCE: 0.515 (Philadelphia excluded)
NFCS: 0.512 (Atlanta excluded)
AFCN: 0.503 (Pittsburgh excluded)
AFCW: 0.498 (Denver excluded)
NFCN: 0.490 (Green Bay excluded)
AFCS: 0.487 (Indianapolis excluded)
NFCW: 0.467 (Seattle excluded)

I recall doing another analysis showing that Pittsburgh and Indianapolis had the largest disparity of records between their own divisions and teams outside it; in other words, they feasted on their own divisions far more disproportionately than any other teams.

EDIT - Found it!

Team winning percentages against teams from outside the division:

New England: 0.769
Pittsburgh: 0.616 (not even close)
Indianapolis: 0.594
Denver: 0.581
Green Bay: 0.575
And so on...

Further, the Patriots only have 33.6% of their wins coming from inside the division. Here's how that ranks against the top 5 teams since 2002:

Indianapolis: 40.6%
Green Bay: 38.7%
Pittsburgh: 35.9%
Denver: 35.9%
New England: 33.6%

EDIT 2 - Winning Percentages against teams outside the division (not including the top team in the division - again to remove "the Pats effect")

AFC East: 0.545
NFC East: 0.523
NFC South: 0.519
AFC North: 0.505
AFC West: 0.498
NFC North: 0.488
AFC South: 0.480
NFC West: 0.447

 

[Nikolai]

I don't know where you get the time, interest, and energy for this, but color me impressed. And thanks.

Thank you! Yeah, I had a phase where I had some time on my hands and was tired of hearing the same hawt takes/dumb arguments.

The one I'm really proud of is the All-Time QB analysis, but I really need to finish that the right way. When will I have time is the question

 

[luuked]

Not really. The argument is the Pats play in the weakest or one of the weakest divisions. That’s a mutually exclusive argument. It’s either one of the weakest divisions or it’s not.

There is a big spectrum between "strong" division and "weakest of the weakest".

And if you take away the little run the Jets had around 2010 when was the last time that there really was another playoff caliber team in the AFCE ?

And you notice we area already going back 9 years to the previous one. The Dolphins and Bills teams that somehow snuck into the post season the last few years were absolute cannon fodder.

This is not what a strong division looks like. Anyone saying so is as blind as the people who are claiming it is the "easiest of the easiest". The reality is that there are not many consistently strong divisions anyway. Some are based on reputation (AFCN) but when you look closer it is a similar garbage fire in more years than not.

 

[BelichicksHoodie]

If the Patriots played in the same division as the Steelers then the Steelers would have zero division wins in 20 years and probably would have changed their coach and QB a half dozen times.

They should have changed their coach currently a half dozen times already.

 

[Keyser Söze]

You're using the "eye test".

I'll take numbers every single time.

Since 2002, the NFC West has been the biggest dumpster fire in the NFL. Again, the numbers back it up and I don't know who would argue otherwise, even with an "eye test".

So because the NFC West has been really bad that negates the fact the AFC East has also been bad?

What the hell does one division have to do with the other in this situation. The coaches and QBs in this division outside of the Pats has been a revolving door.

 

[Nikolai]

So because the NFC West has been really bad that negates the fact the AFC East has also been bad?

What the hell does one division have to do with the other in this situation. The coaches and QBs in this division outside of the Pats has been a revolving door.

I'm trying to give you an example of a truly bad division.

Again, I'll take the numbers. It's a 16 year sample (in the 2017 analysis), so it's not like there isn't enough data to come to a firm conclusion.

We're having a disagreement about qualitative vs quantitative data, so...

 

[SBLIII]

The AFCE is a dumpster fire. That much is certain.

But the difference if the NEP were in a different division is overstated

 

[borg]

Measuring AFCE competence using # of playoff appearances during :

The first 10 years of the Brady era ...2001-10
The next 8 years of the Brady era....2011-18

2001-10
Playoff appearances: Pats 8, JESTs 6, Mia 2, Buff 0
2011-18
Playoff appearances: Pats 8, JESTs 0, Mia 1, Buff 1

Odds of securing playoff birth for any AFC team each year....23% (3/13)
(3 = 1 AFCE winner + 2 available WC births / 13 = 16 AFC teams - 3 non AFCE division winners)

Conclusion:

From 2001-10, the non Patriots members of the AFCE were marginally better (27%) than league average (23%) in securing playoff births
[8 playoff appearances out off 30 available births = 27% (3 births available each yr x 10 yrs)]

From 2011-18, the non Patriots members of the AFCE were historically abysmal earning playoff births (8%) compared to league average (23%)
[2 playoff appearances / 24 available births (3 births available each yr x 8 yrs)]

 

[Calhoun44]

Measuring AFCE competence using # of playoff appearances during :

The first 10 years of the Brady era ...2001-10
The next 8 years of the Brady era....2011-18

2001-10
Playoff appearances: Pats 8, JESTs 6, Mia 2, Buff 0
2011-18
Playoff appearances: Pats 8, JESTs 0, Mia 1, Buff 1

Odds of securing playoff birth for any AFC team each year....23% (3/13)
(3 = 1 AFCE winner + 2 available WC births / 13 = 16 AFC teams - 3 non AFCE division winners)

Conclusion:

From 2001-10, the non Patriots members of the AFCE were marginally better (27%) than league average (23%) in securing playoff births
[8 playoff appearances out off 30 available births = 27% (3 births available each yr x 10 yrs)]

From 2011-18, the non Patriots members of the AFCE were historically abysmal earning playoff births (8%) compared to league average (23%)
[2 playoff appearances / 24 available births (3 births available each yr x 8 yrs)]

Hmmm...I'm not sure that is fair to the division because you basically removed the division winner from the 23% equation. I think your conclusion needs more refining, but I don't know how to best articulate it.

 

[borg]

Hmmm...I'm not sure that is fair to the division because you basically removed the division winner from the 23% equation. I think your conclusion needs more refining, but I don't know how to best articulate it.

Huh?
Of course the other division winners get removed from the equation...
And the AFC East winner is part of the equation

An AFC East team cannot win the AFC North, South, or West divisions.
Therefore AFC East teams are fighting for the 3 available playoff births (AFCE winner + 2 WCs) available to the 13 teams that don't win the AFC N, S, or W.
3/13 = 23%

You are likely hung up on the... 6 teams make the playoffs out of each 16 team conference = 37.5%
But we must account for: Each team can only qualify for 3 of the 6 playoff births

 

[Deus Irae]

Just to note the obvious, since it seems to be mostly ignored in these conversations:

When you have an historically great team, or even a team that's just historically powerful in the regular season, it skews everything, and we are looking at the greatest historical team in the NFL's Super Bowl era. Now, the skewing can go in both a positive or negative direction, but I thought it was worthwhile to bring it up in the context of this thread.


Just looking to one item, using the Patriots as the current example, we see that the Patriots have effectively shut off winning the division as a possibility for the 3 other teams in the division, leaving them only WC as a potential playoff path.

 

[borg]

Just to note the obvious, since it seems to be mostly ignored in these conversations:

When you have an historically great team, or even a team that's just historically powerful in the regular season, it skews everything, and we are looking at the greatest historical team in the NFL's Super Bowl era. Now, the skewing can go in both a positive or negative direction, but I thought it was worthwhile to bring it up in the context of this thread.


Just looking to one item, using the Patriots as the current example, we see that the Patriots have effectively shut off winning the division as a possibility for the 3 other teams in the division, leaving them only WC as a potential playoff path.

Sounds good but not really true....with the exception of 2007.
Buff, JESTs, Mia all play 14 non Patriots games each year....and the results of these games have nothing to do with NE.
The Pats aren't preventing them from being 14-2, they are.

 

[Deus Irae]

Sounds good but not really true....with the exception of 2007.
Buff, JESTs, Mia all play 14 non Patriots games each year....and the results of these games have nothing to do with NE.
The Pats aren't preventing them from being 14-2, they are.

Yes, it is really true.

 

[PatsDeb]

The AFCE is a dumpster fire. That much is certain.

But the difference if the NEP were in a different division is overstated

Yeah, to me whatever division we're in for the last 20 years would have looked like a dumpster fire if we had the same wins/losses as we've had.

 

[maust]

Yeah, to me whatever division we're in for the last 20 years would have looked like a dumpster fire if we had the same wins/losses as we've had.

Exactly. With Brady under center the Pats regular season win percentages through the 2018 season are as follows:
AFCE .794 (81-21) NFCE .813 (13-3)
AFCN .806 (25-6) NFCN .850 (17-3)
AFCS .788 (26-7) NFCS .750 (12-4)
AFCW .647 (22-12) NFCW .667 (10-5)


Their AFC win % is .770, good for a whopping -.024 difference as compared to their AFCE record, keeping in mind they only play the top two teams in two of the 3 other divisions each year. Their NFC win % is .776, all of .018 less than their AFCE record.

Since the Pats are located in New England what Northern or Eastern division would the whiners prefer they play in? They actually have a better record against the AFCN, NFCE & NFCN than they do the AFCE.

 

[Calhoun44]

Huh?
Of course the other division winners get removed from the equation...
And the AFC East winner is part of the equation

An AFC East team cannot win the AFC North, South, or West divisions.
Therefore AFC East teams are fighting for the 3 available playoff births (AFCE winner + 2 WCs) available to the 13 teams that don't win the AFC N, S, or W.
3/13 = 23%

You are likely hung up on the... 6 teams make the playoffs out of each 16 team conference = 37.5%
But we must account for: Each team can only qualify for 3 of the 6 playoff births

Apparently, I cannot comprehend the written word as well as I thought...LOL...Thanks for the clarification.

I love the AFCE.... a lot!

 

[TommyD4207]

Sounds good but not really true....with the exception of 2007.
Buff, JESTs, Mia all play 14 non Patriots games each year....and the results of these games have nothing to do with NE.
The Pats aren't preventing them from being 14-2, they are.

It is true. See 49ers, 1981-1996, NFC West, San Francisco for details.

 

[Doctor DDS]

Facts:

• AFCE has been the best division in football since re-alignment - 99% of that is due to the Patriots
• AFCE has been the least competitive division as one team has dominated throughout- virtually all other divisions have teams switching positions regularly
• AFCE teams 2-4 have generally been middle of the pack in out of division records to comparable teams in the other divisions
• The AFCE has been weaker the past few years and it has made pundits think that it has been this putrid for the entire run which is untrue
• The fact that the Pats have rarely had a team truly fighting for a division title has certainly helped them in this run but it would have been extremely successful in any of the other divisions and they would have created more "Jets, Bills or Dolphins" if they played elsewhere (ie: Bengals would not have made the playoffs nearly as much if the Pats had replaced the Steelers during their run and their team would have been perceived as much worse)

The Patriots are successful against bad teams, good teams and great teams year after year. The fact this remains a topic for them vs almost the exact same scenario that the Manning Colts or the Montana 49ers went through is what is bizarre.

 

[Oswlek]

Measuring AFCE competence using # of playoff appearances during :

The first 10 years of the Brady era ...2001-10
The next 8 years of the Brady era....2011-18

2001-10
Playoff appearances: Pats 8, JESTs 6, Mia 2, Buff 0
2011-18
Playoff appearances: Pats 8, JESTs 0, Mia 1, Buff 1

Odds of securing playoff birth for any AFC team each year....23% (3/13)
(3 = 1 AFCE winner + 2 available WC births / 13 = 16 AFC teams - 3 non AFCE division winners)

Conclusion:

From 2001-10, the non Patriots members of the AFCE were marginally better (27%) than league average (23%) in securing playoff births
[8 playoff appearances out off 30 available births = 27% (3 births available each yr x 10 yrs)]

From 2011-18, the non Patriots members of the AFCE were historically abysmal earning playoff births (8%) compared to league average (23%)
[2 playoff appearances / 24 available births (3 births available each yr x 8 yrs)]

You're very close with this, but you overlook the fact that NE has been a permanent fixture in one of those three playoffs spots. This means that there were really only two berths available to the other AFCE teams.

You could go through and find years where NE being swept by their hypothetical AFCE opponent would have knocked them out of the playoffs altogether, but I suspect they'd be a playoff team more often than not even with an extra loss or two.

Frankly, the fact that AFCE teams only really had a 2/12 chance of making the playoffs most years makes the 27% in the first decade very impressive....and makes the 8% that much more sad.