An EXCELLENT link for those who try to use the Pats play in a weak AFCE

[jmt57]

I think many people that weigh in on this debate should actually read the original article.

Most if not all of the points and counterpoints are laid out in factual date, if you take the time to scroll down far enough to find your specific argument.


The Myth of the Easy AFC East, the Definitive Guide | Patriots Dynasty

 

[XLIX]

I did an analysis a couple years ago analyzing each division's record outside the division if you removed the best record from within that division (i.e. to make sure the Pats' success doesn't "cloud" the AFCE numbers)

With all due respect, that’s cheating. The whole point is that the Patriots have had an advantage no other team has had in that Buffalo/Miami/NYJ are bad and have been bad overall for the better part of the past 2 decades. To merely “remove the top team” from each division and then make a comparison misses the point because the bottom 3 teams is going to change from year to year in other divisions. The whole argument being made is, for example, “Pittsburgh’s division rivals are much better than NE’s” so we would compare Balt/Cin/Cle to Mia/Buf/NYJ. We wouldn’t just take the “bottom 3” from each season per division.

If you take any 3 teams in the same division and analyze them since 2001, good luck finding a 3-team grouping as bad as Mia/Buf/NYJ. Spoiler alert: you won’t be able to.

 

[XLIX]

I think you missed a large part of the point. The Pats do not 'regularly go 13-3, 14-2' in fact during the 10 years sampled they lost 4 or more 6 of them. The fact is the Pats ARE part of the AFCE, just as every other division winner and their record is part of theirs, it's not about teams it is about divisions. Again, every division is .500 against itself. What the stat measured was overall performance outside the division. If the troll's argument for New England's success is a weak division then how do they explain the AFCE's success outside the division? That the Pats numbers are part of the AFCE's performance doesn't diminish the effectiveness of division strength in the argument, it enhances it by taking in division performance completely out of the equation.

If the argument being made is that the AFC East is weak, then it makes sense to include the Patriots in any analysis since they are a part of the AFC East.

If the argument being made is that the Patriots’ AFC East opponents are weak, then it makes sense to take out the Patriots in such an analysis.

Fact is:

1) Any thorough analysis looking at the entire AFCE is going to show the division is strong because of the Patriots.

but...

2) Any thorough analysis comparing the other 3 AFCE teams to other divisions is going to make the AFC East look weak.

 

[supafly]

Dude, *****ing new banner next to your name. Hoping to have one in the next few seasons myself, but I need to step up my game.

@Nikolai

 

[Nikolai]

With all due respect, that’s cheating. The whole point is that the Patriots have had an advantage no other team has had in that Buffalo/Miami/NYJ are bad and have been bad overall for the better part of the past 2 decades. To merely “remove the top team” from each division and then make a comparison misses the point because the bottom 3 teams is going to change from year to year in other divisions. The whole argument being made is, for example, “Pittsburgh’s division rivals are much better than NE’s” so we would compare Balt/Cin/Cle to Mia/Buf/NYJ. We wouldn’t just take the “bottom 3” from each season per division.

Thank you for making a thoughtful point.

With your suggestion, you'd be answering a different question than I have. The question is; how easy is it to win the AFC East each year, when compared to other divisions? So, the year to year question is what is the quality of non-division winners in a given division? The only way to answer that is to take out the division winner of each division to isolate the non-division winners and then compare them.

To answer your other question, see my second analysis. I looked at the percentage of wins from inside the division by the "best teams of the era". Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, and Green Bay were the beneficiary of wins at a greater rate than the Patriots, meaning that they feasted on their division more readily than the Pats did.

If you take any 3 teams in the same division and analyze them since 2001, good luck finding a 3-team grouping as bad as Mia/Buf/NYJ. Spoiler alert: you won’t be able to.

I found four divisions that had worse 3-team groupings, and the AFCE tied with the AFCW (in the NFCW, which I have contended is the real dumpster fire, you can make ANY 3-team grouping and it's worse than the AFCE).

Between 2002-2017, winning percentages:

NYC/Dal/Was: 0.503
NO/TB/Car: 0.503
KC/Oak/SD: 0.471
Mia/Buf/NYJ: 0.471
Bal/Cin/Cle: 0.468
Min/Chi/Det: 0.458
Hou/Jax/Ten: 0.442
LAR/Ari/SF: 0.425

 

[Nikolai]

Dude, *****ing new banner next to your name. Hoping to have one in the next few seasons myself, but I need to step up my game.

@Nikolai

Ha! Thanks man. My story proves that even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then.

 

[PatsWSB47]

Rant alert. The AFC east argument is nothing more than an attempt to diminish the Patriots success since their dynasty began. Some people think they have to correct Pats fan's notion that the Patriots have sustained the greatest teams over the past couple of decades and they cant stand that they feel any sense of pride with it. Lets break it down like this all you Feger and Mazzians: The Pats made it deep in the playoffs against the BEST the other divisions had to offer virtually every year save a couple since their dynasty began in 2001 and it's not not even close for any other team. They've been to the Superbowl 9 times and won 6 titles. I guess if trying to explain away another team's success helps you feel better about yours helps then knock yourselves out, but NO team from any division makes it past the Pats anyway near enough to rain on the parade. We're proud of them period. Let that sink in.

 

[Nikolai]

Rant alert. The AFC east argument is nothing more than an attempt to diminish the Patriots success since their dynasty began. Some people think they have to correct Pats fan's notion that the Patriots have sustained the greatest teams over the past couple of decades and they cant stand that they feel any sense of pride with it. Lets break it down like this all you Feger and Mazzians: The Pats made it deep in the playoffs against the BEST the other divisions had to offer virtually every year save a couple since their dynasty began in 2001 and it's not not even close for any other team. They've been to the Superbowl 9 times and won 6 titles. I guess if trying to explain away another team's success helps you feel better about yours helps then knock yourselves out, but NO team from any division makes it past the Pats anyway near enough to rain on the parade. We're proud of them period. Let that sink in.

It's like the video walkthrough lie about SBXXXVI. It's been repeated so much that everyone accepts it as truth, facts be damned.

 

[TB12GOATQB]

It's like the video walkthrough lie about SBXXXVI. It's been repeated so much that everyone accepts it as truth, facts be damned.

It what we call 'fake news'. People are easily controlled by media.

 

[XLIX]

Thank you for making a thoughtful point.

With your suggestion, you'd be answering a different question than I have. The question is; how easy is it to win the AFC East each year, when compared to other divisions?

Yes, but how does one define "how tough it is to win the division"? I mean, for Buffalo it is very tough to win the division because they have to win 12/13/14 games just to tie or beat NE. But for NE it is much easier. They could have won the division last year with 8 wins. Or 10 wins the year before.

I found four divisions that had worse 3-team groupings, and the AFCE tied with the AFCW (in the NFCW, which I have contended is the real dumpster fire, you can make ANY 3-team grouping and it's worse than the AFCE).

Between 2002-2017, winning percentages:

NYC/Dal/Was: 0.503
NO/TB/Car: 0.503
KC/Oak/SD: 0.471
Mia/Buf/NYJ: 0.471
Bal/Cin/Cle: 0.468
Min/Chi/Det: 0.458
Hou/Jax/Ten: 0.442
LAR/Ari/SF: 0.425

Thank you for the good stats, but I am not sure they are accurate. The only one of those 3 team groupings I have with fewer wins than Mia/Buf/NYJ is LAR/AZ/SF (although I ran the numbers form 2002 to 2018 so maybe that is where we differ). I will double check after the game....

 

[XLIX]

Rant alert. The AFC east argument is nothing more than an attempt to diminish the Patriots success since their dynasty began.

And here's my rant:

It doesn't diminish NE's success whether it is true or not. That's why I have no problem admitting that it's true. I think Pats fans need to be less sensitive about the whole thing. It's ok to admit that Mia/Buf/NYJ are bad this year and have each been overall pretty bad over the past 2 decades. Doesn't bother me one bit to make that admission. There's no tarnish on the Lombardi's and no fewer diamonds on those rings.

 

[PatsWSB47]

And here's my rant:

It doesn't diminish NE's success whether it is true or not. That's why I have no problem admitting that it's true. I think Pats fans need to be less sensitive about the whole thing. It's ok to admit that Mia/Buf/NYJ are bad this year and have each been overall pretty bad over the past 2 decades. Doesn't bother me one bit to make that admission. There's no tarnish on the Lombardi's and no fewer diamonds on those rings.

Admitting the AFC East is weak isn't the point. The point is the need for pundits to constantly bring it up is. The goal is to diminish the Pats dominance

 

[Nikolai]

Yes, but how does one define "how tough it is to win the division"? I mean, for Buffalo it is very tough to win the division because they have to win 12/13/14 games just to tie or beat NE. But for NE it is much easier. They could have won the division last year with 8 wins. Or 10 wins the year before.

It's not a simple question to answer. And they could have only won with 8 wins as long as they beat the second place team both times. It can get messy. That's why I like the second one I posted to assess the top teams over the long term. The Pats owe a smaller percentage of their wins to the division than any of the other top 5 teams. I think that's telling.

Thank you for the good stats, but I am not sure they are accurate. The only one of those 3 team groupings I have with fewer wins than Mia/Buf/NYJ is LAR/AZ/SF (although I ran the numbers form 2002 to 2018 so maybe that is where we differ). I will double check after the game....

2018 could be the difference. I didn't rerun any numbers since I last did this in January 2018. As you can see in my example above, the margin is pretty tight in the middle. The NFCW is clearly far worse. There's not a whole lot of separation between the rest, so the rankings could shift from year to year. Either way, I wouldn't argue that the AFCE is clearly worse than every other division.

 

[captain stone]

The AFC Least appears on its way to a near-historic level of suckness this season...Anyone arguing that this division has Not been our doormat for the last 2 decades more than any other division has been any other team's doormats is just a bit too triggered-happy.